X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Trending Upwards / Downwards: Starting Pitchers for Week 16

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller analyzes the hot & cold trends of fantasy baseball starting pitchers. Identifying who is trending up & trending down can assist in better streaming.

 

Last week I focused exclusively on hitting trends so it seems only fair that this week I focus on pitching.  Eventually, I hope my format will evolve to the point that I'll be analyzing a mixture of both pitchers and hitters, but for now let's get started!

 

Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Trending Upwards

Matt Garza (SP), Milwaukee Brewers

On the season, Matt Garza is pitching to a 3.78 ERA, 6.78 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9 line.  I believe it was the ERA over 4.00 that led many of you to ask me what you should do with Garza. Let's take a look at his most recent performances and see if you can infer for yourself: in his last time out, Garza arguably had his best start of the season against the Reds, going the distance for a shutout and allowing just four baserunners while striking out nine.  In his last four starts, including the one in which he gave up four runs to Colorado, he is pitching to a 2.67 ERA, 7.12 K/9 and 1.19 BB/9, which doesn't include Garza's most recent effort against the Phillies, which would make the line look even prettier). His ERA is on its way down, his strikeouts are up and his walks are down. These are the keys to success, RotoBaller.

Rest of the season:

In the preseason, many fantasy experts ranked Garza as close to a top-30 starting pitcher. While I don't believe that is the case, I could see him finishing just outside the top 40. I don't rank him higher because of his poor start and the fact that there have been many surprising pitching performances this year.  However, even as a top-40 fantasy starting pitcher, he has way more value than the waiver wire fodder that some have accused him of being. You could try packaging Garza with another piece to get a higher end SP back, but being "stuck" with Garza is far from the end of the world.

 

Corey Kluber (SP), Cleveland Indians

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

I've been a Kluber Trooper since the preseason and his peripherals suggest he's been pitching at an ace-type level for at least a year and a half. On the season, Corey Kluber is pitching to a 2.86 ERA, 9.81 K/9 (good for sixth in MLB behind David Price and ahead of guys like Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez and Masahiro Tanaka) and a 2.15 BB/9 line. Kluber is definitely one of those early season surprises that I mentioned above. So how has he improved on that season line? By pitching to a 1.24 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 1.24 BB/9 line in his last four starts. He may have sacrificed some strikeouts, but I believe most owners would take that in return for the much lower ERA. Those are the kind of  numbers that would earn him a Cy Young award.

Rest of the season:

My one concern with Kluber is that it's just before the All-Star break and he's already nearing his career-high in innings pitched. Otherwise, nothing about the underlying numbers suggest that he will regress. I predict that Kluber will finish as a top-25 pitcher for the season, and if his owner has some doubts then now is the time to buy!

 

Ervin Santana (SP), Atlanta Braves

Ervin Santana was supposed to dominate once he switched to the National League. Unfortunately, things did not turn out as planned, with a  4.01 ERA, 7.85 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 on the season. The K/9 and walks aren't terrible, but the ERA is certainly higher than anyone expected. However, in his last four starts Santana has pitched to a 3.67 ERA, 8.00 K/9 and 1.67 BB/9 line. More importantly, he's allowed just 0.74 HR/9 for the season. Giving up fewer homers, walking fewer batters and striking out more hitters are definitely something I can get behind.

Rest of season:

Santana's K/9 this season is second only to his career-high of 8.79 in 2008. His HR/9 is also way below career norms, and his walk rate is diminished as well. In terms of ERA, Santana's batting average against of .259 is about nine points higher than his career norm, and hitters have a .317 BABIP against him, which is way worse than his career norm of .284. This all suggests to me a pitcher that has been getting a little unlucky, and I could see the ERA coming down as long as he keeps his home run rate down. I'm still not sure how much I trust Santana, but he should at least finish as a top-50 starting pitcher,  making him quite useful. On the other hand, if you could package him and someone else for, say, Corey Kluber, I'd do it in a heartbeat!

 

Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Trending Downwards:

Mike Minor (SP), Atlanta Braves

Mike Minor Atlanta Braves MLB News

Mike Minor came into the season highly touted as a top-20 pitcher.  Unfortunately, after an early shoulder injury sidelined Minor for a bit, the results have not really justified that optimistic outlook. Minor has been inconsistent at best on the season, pitching to a 4.54 ERA with an 8.61 K/9 and a 2.68 BB/9.  Perhaps most importantly, he's allowed an unsightly 1.63 HR/9. It's hard to believe that his past four starts were even worse, especially since he had a fairly good game against the Mets his last time out, but they were. Minor allowed nearly two homers a game over that stretch, the equivalent of video game numbers against a pitcher, and that's not a good sign for Minor.

Rest of the season:

Another not-so-great sign is that these last four starts included two starts against the light-hitting Mets.Yikes. Contrary to what you might think, though, I still believe in Minor. As a top-20 pitcher? No, at this point I don't see that for this season. But can he at least reach the top 40 going forward? Absolutely. Most of his numbers are in line with what he did last year when he pitched to a 3.24 ERA. His major bugaboos have been the home run, and the frequency with which balls in play are finding the holes. If he can get the homers under control and turn the luck in his favor, then he could still be a very serviceable pitcher going forward.

 

Phil Hughes (SP), Minnesota Twins

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins

Speaking of people who have a reputation for being homer prone, haaaaave you met Phil Hughes? Funny enough, Hughes actually has the homers under control this season, and he'd been pitching fairly well until a handful of bad recent starts. On the season, Hughes has a 3.70 ERA, 7.87 K/9, 0.85 BB/9 and a 0.69 HR/9 rate-- Hughes has managed the second-best K/BB ratio in the majors.  Those numbers are very solid, and they'd look even better if it weren't for his last four starts. Sure, he did well against the Mariners his last time out, but his numbers for the past four starts still look like this: 5.81 ERA, 8.20 K/9, 1.03 BB/9 and 0.68 HR/9.  That looks like his season line, minus the ERA. So what got Hughes in trouble here? Maybe it's the insanely high .398 BABIP against him. Or the fact that the last four teams he's faced have been the Mariners, Yankees, Rangers and Sox, each one a fairly powerful team.

Rest of the season:

It could be my personal bias of wanting to see Hughes succeed, but it's pretty hard to give up on a player who has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors. Just for fun, let's see what his line would be like without those last four starts: 3.09 ERA, 7.77 K/9, 0.80 BB/9 and 0.70 HR/9. That is a very serviceable pitcher, especially for the middle or back end of your rotation. As long as Hughes can continue being the new Hughes who doesn't allow as many homers, I'm a believer at the right price.

 

Dallas Keuchel (SP), Houston Astros

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Dallas Keuchel was someone who if you missed him on the waiver wire you were probably kicking yourself for not making the pickup. While he doesn't strike out a ton, as suggested by his 6.79 K/9, his 3.20 ERA and 2.18 BB/9 on the season is great, especially when you consider some of his more recent starts. Until very recently, there was a lot of talk of Keuchel being a top-30 pitcher for the season, and then his wrist got inflamed and his recent numbers have not been pretty. Since June 17th, Keuchel has pitched to a 6.20 ERA with an even lower 4.38 K/9 and a higher BB/9 of 3.65. Going down the path of striking out fewer and walking more is the path to Mt. Doom for pitchers.

Rest of the season:

The All-Star break should help Keuchel to heal his wrist a bit. If that doesn't work, I could see a DL stint being in his future. This is still a guy who is better than most of the waiver wire options out there, but especially because he will never strike out a ton of guys, he is definitely not a top-30 option. Personally, I'd rank Keuchel within the top 60, maybe even 50, if he really turns it on in the second half. If I were a Keuchel owner, I'd be holding for now but monitoring him very closely from start to start. If he runs into trouble after the All-Star break it may be time to cut ties.

 

An important thing to note is these stats are up to date as of the early afternoon of July 10th, 2014 and may not include the most recent starts. That said, one start won't change my advice regarding the rest of the season.

Thanks for reading guys! Feel free to give me feedback either here or on twitter @RekedFantasy. If there is a specific trend you'd like me to review, I'd love to hear about it! See you all next week!

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF