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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 6 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
We're back for the sixth edition of our Unlikely Aces series in 2026. It's been a tough year for starting pitcher injuries. I know, we say that every year. But it truly feels different this time around. Maybe it's because we're missing two of the best pitchers in baseball in Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.
That means that finding a starting pitcher who is performing well above expectations is even more important. You need that type of high-end production, at least for a small chunk of the season, to help offset injuries to your marquee players. Even if you're not dealing with injuries, we always want to bolster our pitching staff.
That's where unlikely aces come in. These are pitchers who have been surprisingly good so far this year. Keep reading as we determine whether Bailey Ober, Nick Martinez, and Spencer Arrighetti can be trusted moving forward, or if they're better off left on the waiver wire. Do note that rostered percentages are from Yahoo!
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Nick Martinez, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
53% Rostered
Nick Martinez is your classic "boring veteran" starter. Coming into the 2026 season, Martinez's best season was in 2024, when he put up a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 3.2% walk rate in 142.1 innings. But even in that year, the underlying metrics weren't anything that jumped off the page, including a 3.80 SIERA and a 10.9% swinging-strike rate.
That's why, even when we saw Martinez get a favorable landing spot like the Tampa Bay Rays, who always seem to extract more value from their pitchers, we weren't that excited about the veteran's outlook in fantasy baseball. At best, Martinez was viewed as a viable streamer who is best deployed in home games against average to low-end offenses.
But so far this season, Martinez has smashed expectations, putting up a 1.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 42 innings. However, this looks like an obvious regression candidate.
For one, Martinez has a 16.7% strikeout rate, which is way below average. It's going to be hard to continue being productive with that many balls in play. Currently, Martinez has a .236 BABIP, by far the lowest of his career.
In fact, his previous career low is .274, which is much higher than this number. It's not like his 26.2% hard-hit rate is that much different from career norms, as it's not even the best he's ever posted.
Martinez has a 4.50 SIERA, which is significantly higher than his current 1.71 ERA. In other words, he doesn't deserve these results so far. That's pretty obvious. No one thinks Martinez is going to go a full year with a sub-2.00 ERA. However, that doesn't mean that he can't be productive for you.
There's one key factor to consider here: the Rays have changed his pitch mix.
As we can see here, Martinez is throwing his sinker more (32.1% in 2026, 17.1% in 2025). This pitch has induced a .289 xwOBA, so hitters are having a hard time generating solid contact here. It's been an effective pitch for Martinez to induce groundballs. On top of that, Martinez has increased his changeup usage (19.8% in 2025, 27.4% this year). This pitch has a .185 xwOBA and 33.3% whiff rate.
The Rays smartly have advised Martinez to throw his fastball less (-10.3%) since that pitch got crushed last year (.365 xwOBA) and is getting squared up this year (.479 xwOBA).
Verdict: Martinez is going to regress, but he can be effective for you, especially while in a rhythm. You have to like that there are pitch mix changes to support this strong run. Ride the wave while it lasts. He's earned enough leeway where you hold even if there are 2-3 bad outings in a row.
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Houston Astros
49% Rostered
Spencer Arrighetti, Nasty 76mph Curveball. 🍝 pic.twitter.com/nJVwPTLc4W
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 2, 2026
Spencer Arrighetti is coming off an injury-plagued season that limited him to only 35.1 innings. But back in 2024, many were intrigued by him, as he put up a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 12.2% swinging-strike rate.
With the Astros dealing with injuries to their rotation, Arrighetti has answered the bell so far, putting up a 1.96 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 13.9% walk rate.
The underlying metrics point to regression, including a 4.52 SIERA, which is much higher than his 1.96 ERA. What I'm most concerned with here is the 13.9% walk rate. That kind of poor command is going to make it difficult for Arrighetti to remain effective. Even if he still gets it done, there's going to be volatility here.
Arrighetti has been able to strand runners at an unsustainable rate, as highlighted by his 89% left-on-base rate (LOB%). Once that normalizes, Arrighetti is going to start getting punished for his poor command more often.
In terms of pitch mix, there aren't any notable changes here, either, which makes me less optimistic about Arrighetti.
However, he's not a bad back-end starter to have on your team. There are going to be games where everything clicks, and he racks up 8+ strikeouts. But you just have to know that this will come with short outings where he struggles with walks and hitters bring the baserunners home.
Verdict: In short, Arrighetti has strikeout upside that can make it shut down even the best offenses, as he did with the Yankees, but this doesn't look like a breakout. Keep him on your roster as a back-end starter.
Bailey Ober, SP, Minnesota Twins
31% Rostered
Didn't expect to examine Minnesota Twins' starting pitcher Bailey Ober against the Reds on Sunday after throwing a quality start (6.1 IP, 3 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 10 SO). Ober had a 13.7% swinging-strike rate, yet a weirdly high 40% ball rate.
🧹All 5 of Ober's sweeper whiffs came… https://t.co/YDxbVF2eFB pic.twitter.com/hRjOfDFxsG
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 20, 2026
Bailey Ober came into the 2025 season with a lot of hype as an innings-eater. He was considered a "safe" pitcher worth targeting in fantasy baseball leagues. What ended up happening was a complete disaster, as Ober put up a 5.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP with a 19.2% strikeout rate and a 5.0% walk rate.
During spring training, Ober showed diminished velocity, which made him unappealing in drafts. But so far, Ober has surprised us, putting up a 3.55 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with an 18.5% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate.
Ober has gotten better as the season has progressed. In his last three starts, he's given up a combined three earned runs, spanning 18.1 innings. This is highlighted by a 10-strikeout game vs. the Reds.
With that said, Ober has a 4.55 SIERA on the season, which is discouraging. His average velocity is 88.6 MPH, down from 90.3 MPH. The reason why Ober has been able to get by with this league-worst velocity is that he's increased his changeup usage from 28.9% to 34.9%. This pitch has a .238 xBA, helping make up for his fastball.
The way you can approach this is simple: accept the new reality. The old Ober, the one who had a 25+% strikeout rate from 2023 to 2024, is unlikely to resurface this season. In those years, he had an average velocity of 91+ MPH, which is three ticks more than his current average.
However, Ober can be a crafty pitcher who can get it done despite the lack of swing-and-miss. There are going to be games where it all works out (like 10 K vs. Reds), but there will also be low-floor games with 2-3 strikeouts.
Verdict: Ober is a back-end starter who you can stream. Despite the positive recent trends, this isn't a high-end starter. But you should definitely keep him on your roster.
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