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Tommy Bell takes a deep dive into three Royals fantasy baseball starting pitchers to determine their rest-of-season value for 2024. How valuable can these players be?
The Kansas City Royals offense has shown some exciting spurts to start the year, and the bonus has been their pitching, which has exceeded expectations to an even higher degree through the first six weeks of 2024.
Cole Ragans has displayed the impressive strikeout stuff and impressive xFIP that many predicted when he came into the year as a dark-horse candidate for the AL Cy Young Award. But it's been the success of middle-of-the-rotation starters like Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, and even Alec Marsh that's led to a 26-19 record and a top-10 team ERA for Kansas City.
Are these Royals right-handers for real, or is it time to sell high with some regression surely coming soon? Let's take a deeper look!
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Seth Lugo (SP, KC)
87% Rostered
After his most recent gem against the Angels, Lugo is now an impressive 6-1 in nine starts with a 1.66 ERA and 48 strikeouts to 12 walks and five homers. A 3.78 xFIP, .241 BABIP, and 90.2% LOB% suggest that this is the peak of the market for the 34-year-old, but has there been a significant enough change in approach to warrant some growth?
The answer is likely a resounding "no." Lugo hasn't changed up his approach too much from years prior. He threw the slider much less last year, but his rate is now back up to his 2022 numbers. Yet, his strikeout rate is actually his lowest since 2017, despite striking out 12 (!!) in his last outing.
Lugo is hitting his spots right now, he's avoiding the long ball, and he's getting out of jams when they arrive. There's a lot to like about his current profile, but we can't expect this to continue at this rate. The hard-hit rate dropping is the only silver lining here, but as the weather warms up, things could get a bit messy.
If you can trade Lugo for anyone with top-40 starting pitcher equivalency, I highly advise doing so. Fill a weakness with Lugo's hot start while you still can!
Brady Singer (SP, KC)
82% Rostered
I'll save the dramatics... Singer could be the one that sticks!
Brady Singer, 93mph Sinker and 84mph Slider, Overlay pic.twitter.com/XbmXUoqmSd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2024
The 2018 draft pick is just 3-2 in his first nine starts, but his 52 strikeouts to 16 walks and five homers suggests his record should be better. A 2.84 ERA is backed nicely by a 3.29 xFIP, and the 27-year-old has improved his ground-ball rate to a career high while dropping his hard-hit rate a percentage point as well.
There's nothing major to point at here that suggests a massive breakout for Singer, but perhaps a few more four-seam fastballs are helping his sinker and slider to play a little better the second and third time through the order.
A few "luck" metrics like BABIP and LOB% suggest that Singer will likely land just over the 3.00 ERA mark as the season wears on, but a lot of what he's doing appears to be very sustainable. He very well should be the Royals' No. 2 pitcher moving forward, and as far as fantasy goes, this strikeout rate and some good health should land him somewhere in the 45-55 range of most rankings for the rest of the season.
Alec Marsh (SP, KC)
20% Rostered
Marsh is the youngest of the group at just 26 years old, and he's tallied just 15 career starts at the MLB level between 2023 and 2024. The righty is 3-1 this season with a 2.43 ERA, but an underlying .248 BABIP and 3.92 xFIP suggests he hasn't quite turned the corner for good.
The 2019 draft pick has been able to improve his velocity over the past five years, and he now hovers between 94 and 95 mph with his fastball, but the command has been an issue in the past. This season, he's dropped his walk rate almost 5 percent to a respectable 6.7 percent, but it's still too soon to say if that problem is solved for good.
That being said, Marsh's recent success can be attributed to less walks and a marginally improved ground-ball rate. Still, some regression will likely hit as we move toward the summer months, and a 4.00 ERA would be more likely for the young Royal's second season in the bigs.
In deeper leagues, especially AL-only leagues, Marsh is certainly worth a hold to see if he can sustain lower walks and grab a few more strikeouts with his 50 percent offspeed usage. Otherwise, if you can get a reliable bat for him based on this hot start, I would certainly advise a sell-high on Marsh.
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