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Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) looks at the K-BB% star performers of 2023 to predict who will sustain the same success in 2024 fantasy baseball.
Strikeouts and walks play a pivotal role in nearly every scoring format of fantasy baseball. In points leagues, that tends to be a direct effect of points for strikeouts and subtractions for walks. In leagues with category-based scoring, strikeouts (sometimes per nine innings) is a common category, with walks often incorporated into something like WHIP. However it is sliced, K-BB% provides an important metric directly relevant to fantasy scoring by starting pitchers.
As fantasy baseball draft season approaches, managers need to be looking for value at the individual statistic level to build the ideal roster. K-BB% can identify pitchers with overall greatness, but perhaps more importantly, those pitchers who can excel in particular categories found later in drafts.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) sifts through the pitching landscape from 2023 to identify the starting pitchers who excelled at K-BB%, highlighting those who are likely to continue to excel in 2024 and those who are likely a mirage.
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2023 K-BB% Stars Set Up for Success in 2024
Joe Ryan – Minnesota Twins
Ryan leads off the list for good reason: He secured a fourth-place finish in K-BB% across the entire MLB in the 2023 season, boasting a 24.3% mark across 161.2 IP. Ryan finished behind the likes of Spencer Strider, Tarik Skubal, and Tyler Glasnow. While Strider and Glasnow primarily achieved their greatness with dominant K% numbers, Ryan is more balanced with a 29.3% K% and 5.1% BB%.
When evaluating a pitcher who has turned a corner statistically, it is important to try to identify the reason why. There is still plenty of chance in the game of baseball, so pinpointing a change in mechanics or pitch selection can be useful to project sustained success. Ryan has just that sort of change. While he remains a fastball-forward pitcher, with his four-seamer being his most common pitch in 2022 (60.1%) and 2023 (56.9%), he added a splitter as his second pitch.
Joe Ryan, 93mph Fastball and 84mph Splitter, Overlay.
Tunneling... pic.twitter.com/Th1A1VCoG7— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2023
In 2022, Ryan threw a slider 17.1% of the time and a changeup 10.4% of the time. His second most common pitch in 2023 was a split-finger fastball at 27.2% of the time. He also added a sweeper, dropping his changeup altogether in a repertoire with significantly more lateral movement than in 2022. The Whiff% for his first three pitch choices all increased from 2022 to 2023, underscoring the increased K% and suggesting sustained success in 2024.
Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers
Like Ryan, Skubal has an obvious change in his pitch selection to support his success in 2023. Even so, the jump in K-BB% from 17.8% in 2022 to 28.4% in 2023 is remarkable. One contributor is that he has increased the average velocity of his fastball by nearly 2.0 mph, a strong predictor of increased strikeout dominance in particular. Furthermore, he changed his second pitch from a slider (30.9%) in 2022 to a changeup (24.5%) in 2023. His changeup boasts an outstanding 50.6% Whiff%, making his one-two punch particularly potent for a solid K% in 2024.
Skubal’s BB% from 2023 is one of the lowest on this list (and in the MLB) at 4.5%. The contact that is made also skews toward ground balls, limiting the damage with a 51.6% GB% compared to 34.1% for Spencer Strider and 39.6% for Gerrit Cole. Skubal projects as a high strikeout upside pitcher who can limit walks and fly ball damage. The fantasy baseball world is catching up given his current ADP is around 50, but even there Skubal holds significant value as an SP2.
Pablo Lopez – Minnesota Twins
Even though he is a known commodity going in the third or fourth round of most drafts, Lopez belongs on this list for boosting his K-BB% from 16.4% in 2022 to 23.2% in 2023 over a similar number of innings. Lopez set a career-best by a large margin in K% with a 29.2% mark in 2023.
What first jumps out is similar to Skubal -- an increase in four-seam fastball average velocity from 93.5 mph in 2022 to 94.9 mph in 2023. Adding that velocity at age 27 is impressive and hopefully bodes well that the increased velocity is here to stay. His cutter also morphed into a sweeper, previously averaging 88.7 mph in 2022 and now 84.4 mph in 2023. That velocity gap has led to an increase in PutAway% for all of Lopez’s pitches, making him a well-rounded option going into 2024.
Zach Eflin – Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin got some love during the 2023 season, but was at times overshadowed by the greatness of Tyler Glasnow and the excitement of up-and-comers like Taj Bradley. Meanwhile, Eflin made some adjustments to boost his K-BB% from 16.0% in 2022 to 23.0% in 2023, good for a top-10 finish in that statistic in 2023.
Perhaps part of the problem before 2023 was Eflin’s predictability; he threw his sinker 39.9% of the time in 2022. In 2023, that number fell to 31.9% of his pitches, with that void largely filled by an increase in his curveball from 20.1% of pitches in 2022 to 26.5% in 2023. The key here is that his curveball is far and away his best swing-and-miss pitch, boasting a 34.9% Whiff% and 24.9% PutAway% in 2023. Eflin as an SP3 is a very strong squad, and he may surprise with SP2 numbers this year based on his under-the-hood changes in 2023.
Logan Webb – San Francisco Giants
While Webb is being drafted higher than a couple of guys before him, the aforementioned guys have made slightly larger leaps in K-BB% improvements. That being said, where Webb uniquely excelled from 2022 to 2023 was with his control. His 6.2% BB% from 2022 plummeted to 3.6% in 2023, the major driver in his 14.5% K-BB% from 2022 increasing to 19.2% in 2023.
Webb made perhaps the biggest pitch selection change of any pitcher on this list. In 2023, his changeup, averaging 87 mph, was his No. 1 pitch, thrown 41.6% of the time. In 2022, he threw that same pitch just 31.2% of the time, typically leading with a sinking fastball that year. Webb undeniably has confidence in this new pitch split, leading to fewer walks and a sustainable improvement in K-BB% into 2024.
Mitch Keller – Pittsburgh Pirates
Keller is one of those guys who was not necessarily on the radar for this article, only to get into the numbers and see that he absolutely belongs here. Keller increased his K-BB% from 11.4% in 2022 to 18.8% in 2023, highlighted by a massive uptick in strikeouts bringing his K% from 20.1% to 25.5%. He simultaneously brought his walk rate down with an 8.7% BB% in 2022 down to 6.7% in 2023.
Yet again there is a nice explanation laying just under the surface. While his four-seamer continues to be his primary pitch and sitting consistently around 95 mph, he changed his second pitch to be a much faster cutter at 89 mph compared to his sweeper, a frequent pitch for him in 2022, sitting at 83 mph. This change to a fastball-cutter one-two punch increased the PutAway% for the three pitches that accounted for more than 75% of Keller’s pitches in 2023. The mechanics are there to support increased strikeout success and control in 2024.
Mitch Keller making J.T. Realmuto look silly
Keller's 5th K of the night, and 209th of the season
88.5 MPH cutter(?), 2488 RPM, 33 inVB, 6 inHB pic.twitter.com/c6qs5IlmTS
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) September 26, 2023
Eduardo Rodriguez – Arizona Diamondbacks
It is a bit of a fudge to put Rodriguez on this list using numbers between 2022 and 2023. Using those numbers, Rodriguez dramatically improved from 9.7% K-BB% in 2022 to 15.3% in 2023. But putting that into the right context, he had a 20.4% mark with the Red Sox in 2021.
That being said, Rodriguez is listed here for a reason. His ADP is currently sitting around 175, far too low for someone now pitching for the reigning NL champions and boasting a solid FIP of 3.66 in 2023. Rodriguez is a sneaky pick a couple of rounds before his ADP to provide strikeouts with the upside of a solid season on a new club.
Smoke & Mirrors - 2023 K-BB% Overperformers
Freddy Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta is the reason this second section exists. An article focusing on K-BB% fluctuations is required to discuss Freddy Peralta given he led the MLB in K-BB% in the second half of the 2023 season with a 30.6% K-BB%. Guys like Tarik Skubal and Zach Eflin had clear mechanical and pitch selection changes to support their ongoing success, but Peralta’s pitch selection, average velocity, and hard contact stats do not suggest much changed other than chance. He is a potential SP2 for the right price, and certainly an SP3, but I would not go chasing Peralta.
Nick Pivetta – Boston Red Sox
Overall, Pivetta is a fair pick at his current price, but we are here to talk K-BB% specifically. Pivetta looks lined up for a full-time starting role with the Red Sox, which is good news overall for his fantasy value, and in particular wins and quality starts. That being said, Pivetta’s significant increase in K-BB% from 13.2% in 2022 to 20.8% in 2023 is likely at least in part related to pitching out of the bullpen for many turns during the second half of the 2023 season. He has value as an SP3/4, but not specifically because his K-BB% is likely to increase further.
Kutter Crawford – Boston Red Sox
Crawford has a slightly different problem than his teammate Pivetta -- he may not have a firm grip on a rotation spot in Boston. It seems likely he will, but he also may be first on the chopping block if a prospect or bullpen arm shows up to take his place. His 19.1% K-BB% in 2023 was a great improvement on his 13.5% mark in 2022, but I would look elsewhere if the focus is solely on strikeouts/walks.
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