X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Later Round Values For Runs - 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

brandon nimmo fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers - icon rotoballer

Jamie Steed looks at five somewhat ignored players going in the later rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. While they won't be five-category stars, all five players are set to score plenty of runs in 2024.

In almost every fantasy baseball draft, you will find that as the mid to later rounds begin, you're lacking in a certain category. Some are easier to make up ground in but knowing who to target for specific stats will allow you to navigate the draft more clearly.

Here we are taking a look at five hitters who are generally going in the second half of drafts who can help you in the runs category. We'll assess their chances of reaching (or bettering their projections) and why they can achieve that. To be considered, they need to have an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 180 or higher in NFBC drafts.

We'll be using the ATC projections (available at RotoBaller.com) to help give us an idea of what is expected of these hitters. Plus, we'll look at why these five should be able to reach or better their projections. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X .

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

ADP - 191
ATC projection - 89 runs

Nimmo played 152 games in 2023, starting 150 of them. In every start, Nimmo was the Mets' leadoff hitter. It was a similar story in 2022 with all but one of Nimmo's starts coming as the leadoff hitter. That instantly will offer a route to scoring runs and there's no reason to believe it won't be the same again in 2024.

It's easy to see why Nimmo is an ideal leadoff candidate, given his career .380 OBP and .274/.365/.450 slash line over the last two seasons. Nimmo's 10.9% BB% ranked in the 80th percentile last year with his .363 OBP ranking tied-19th among qualified hitters. He isn't only a one-trick pony. He set a career-high in homers last year (24). Given he had 26.7 xHR (expected home runs), we can't say the outfielder was fluky in setting a personal best.

Nimmo offers a good batting average, a decent bit of pop, and is again a threat to score close to 100 runs. The Mets may be rebuilding a bit, but on paper their offense is better than last year. If you need the runs and haven't stacked your outfield with early picks, Nimmo is the ideal target. In leagues using OBP, he becomes even more valuable and vaults up the rankings.

 

Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies

ADP - 195
ATC projection - 80 runs

Tovar is the first of two Rockies hitters set to provide plenty of runs for cheap on your fantasy teams. He had a solid rookie campaign, hitting .253/.287/.408 with 15 homers, 73 RBI, 79 runs, and 11 stolen bases (153 games). With a 4.1% BB% (second percentile) and 27.0% K% (23rd percentile), it might come as a surprise that Tovar managed to score as many runs as he did. Especially given that he hit first or second in only 74 games.

While Coors Field is only the ninth-hitter-friendliest when it comes to home runs (according to Statcast Park Factors), it is the most hitter-friendly when it comes to hits and runs scored. If we look at the below table showing Tovar's numbers at home and on the road, we can see how big of a boost it was to him playing at Coors Field.

Split PA AVG OBP SLG RBI R wOBA ISO wRC+
Home 316 .276 .315 .438 43 47 .324 .162 73
Away 299 .229 .258 .377 30 32 .272 .148 67

Tovar won't be a league-winning shortstop. But he won't hurt you in any category either. There's enough power and speed to get by and a slightly better-than-league-average (.248) batting average. Even if Tovar drops down the battling lineup more frequently, he will still be able to score and drive in runs, especially at home.

 

Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins

ADP - 212
ATC projection - 73 runs

If Julien wasn't already an intriguing fantasy option, becoming the de facto Opening Day second baseman for the Twins has increased his fantasy appeal. Since trading away Jorge Polanco, Julien's ADP is ~206 and it will likely drop below 200 in the coming weeks. After showing his ability in his debut season, Julien now has the opportunity for an everyday role.

In 2023, the second baseman hit .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers, 37 RBI, 60 runs, and three stolen bases (109 games). Julien led off in 57 of his appearances, and against right-handed pitching (RHP), he is set to do so again in 2024. There is a danger of a platoon for Julien given his .196/.229/.217 against LHP, but he was limited to just 48 appearances against lefties. He should at least get more chances to face LHP with Polanco out of the picture.

Julien's propensity to talk a walk (18.0% BB%) in the minor leagues was on display in the majors. His 15.7% BB% following his promotion to the Twins ranked in the 98th percentile. While only projected for 73 runs, that is from 128 games. If Julien is allowed to face LHP frequently and can show a propensity to hit (or walk) against them, there's no reason he can't top 90 runs while being a top second-base option in OBP leagues.

 

Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies

ADP - 225
ATC projection - 74 runs

As expected, McMahon had better numbers at home (.816 OPS) than on the road (.690) last year. But he scored a similar number of runs with 42 coming at Coors Field and 38 coming away from Colorado. The key to McMahon's fantasy value has been his consistency. We can see below how the second of our Rockies hitters has been one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last three seasons.

Year G PA HR RBI R SB AVG OBP SLG
2021 151 596 23 86 80 6 .254 .331 .449
2022 153 597 20 67 67 7 .246 .327 .414
2023 152 627 23 70 80 5 .240 .322 .431
Average 152 607 22 74 77 6 .246 .326 .431

ATC projections have McMahon scoring 74 runs in 143 games. Given the number of games he has played in each of the last three years, another 10 games and therefore a few more runs seems likely. The third baseman played 81 games, hitting third in the lineup last year. The emergence of Nolan Jones may see McMahon slip down to fifth, but he could easily still hit fourth and will still be in a great spot to score and drive in runs.

McMahon does enough of everything to be worthwhile drafting at his ADP. His batting average won't help, but won't cause serious harm either. Only 15 players have played more games than McMahon since 2021, offering a nice floor due to his volume. He has scored 80 runs in two of the last three seasons and I certainly wouldn't bet against him reaching that total again in 2024.

 

J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners

ADP - 270
ATC projection - 81 runs

Crawford had his best offensive year in 2023. Yet looking at his ADP, the fantasy community is not buying into it. In 145 games, Crawford hit .266/.380/.438 with 19 homers, 65 RBI, 94 runs, and two stolen bases. The home runs, RBI, and runs were all career highs and so too was his .380 OBP and .438 SLG. Crawford also had a 14.7% BB% (96th percentile), the highest since his rookie debut (18.4% BB% in 23 games).

That lofty walk rate helped Crawford become the Mariners' predominant leadoff hitter (113 games). While he showed more power against RHP (.463 SLG) compared to LHP (.382 SLG), he got on base at a similar rate (.382 OBP against RHP and .373 against LHP). That should be enough to prevent any platoons. Hitting in front of Julio Rodriguez will help Crawford to score plenty of runs.

It might be a coincidence, but the fact Crawford had such a significant improvement at the plate following a visit to Driveline shouldn't be dismissed. It appears as though it helped unlock something. If it did and Crawford can maintain those improvements, scoring 90 runs again shouldn't be out of reach. The shortstop could end up being a steal in drafts this year, especially in OBP leagues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF