X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Mitch Keller: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

Dan Palyo analyzes Pittsburgh Pirates' starting pitcher Mitch Keller as a draft sleeper for the 2022 Fantasy Baseball season.

From the time it took me to sign up for this article and write it, the hype surrounding the Pirates' pitcher has picked up significantly which makes this all the more compelling of a situation to analyze.

As a long-suffering Pirates fan, my first instinct was to avoid trying to break down Keller's chances of a breakout season as I wasn't sure I could objectively analyze him without letting my fandom interfere. He's been a major disappointment so far in his career but has also flashed incredible upside at the same time and we have so few things to get excited about in Pittsburgh that sometimes we tend to be overly pessimistic about our own players.

But this is a pitcher who has talent worthy of multiple chances and who is still young enough to figure it out. Let's take a journey through the ups and downs of his career to figure out how likely a post-hype breakout might be this season and whether he belongs on the list of draft sleepers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Prospect Pedigree

Keller is a former second-round pick of the Pirates back in 2014 and signed right out of high school. At one point, he was once regarded as the Pirates' best prospect and one of the better pitching prospects in all of baseball. He spent five and a half seasons in the minors before finally making his MLB debut in 2019. He will turn 26 years old right before Opening Day but has still only made 39 career starts at the big league level.

The sample size of him being really good in the minors at each level is fairly large, though he didn't quite dominate at Triple-A the same way that he did in the lower minors. With the Pirates' lack of other young starting pitching talent in the organization, their hopes of having a reliable arm in the rotation every fifth day are pinned on Keller finally figuring it out this season.

 

Failed Expectations

To say that Keller has been a bust so far might be a bit of an understatement. He's been a complete disaster. He made 11 starts in 2019 and compiled an ERA over seven, but also struck out hitters at a 28.6% clip. Then in the shortened 2020 season, he teased everyone by making five starts with a 2.91 ERA. But at the same time, the strikeouts disappeared and just about everything about that small sample of data was flawed as he had a fluky .104 BABIP and a 93% strand rate. If he had pitched more innings in 2020, he was due for some major regression and his overall numbers would have looked a lot worse.

Speaking of looking worse, here are his Statcast sliders from 2021 - ouch! 2021 was brutal for Keller as he made 23 starts for the Pirates and posted an ugly ERA of 6.17. There are not too many silver linings either as his strikeouts rate dipped back down to 19% and his velocity on his four-seamer (which he throws nearly 60% of the time) hovered between 93-94 MPH.

Keller's fastball got crushed and from a batted ball perspective, he was one of the worst starters in baseball last year. It was hard to watch at times and his confidence has clearly been shaken. He's a kid who has had success pitching at every level but has simply been creamed so far by major league hitters and it certainly looked like it was taking a toll on him.

 

Reasons for Optimism

Hope springs eternal, right? Back in January, this video surfaced on Twitter, showing Keller working out with Tread Athletics and touching 100 MPH in bullpen sessions.

Whether or not that velocity is sustainable is certainly not guaranteed but he looked electric in those videos and a return to his top velocity would likely do wonders for his chances of getting big leaguers out. He made his Spring Training debut on March 20th but had it cut short as he took a line drive off his thigh. He allowed two hits in 1.2 innings and struck out one. The good news is that he's likely fine and it wasn't an injury to his arm, core, or upper body. And the hype train started back up again among fantasy analysts when his velocity was up on all his pitches as well as increased spin rates.

His slider has been his best pitch since he added it in the high minors and if he can throw it in the high-80s to complete a mid-90s fastball, you could see a path to regaining the strikeout prowess he had in the minors. His curveball got crushed last season, so throwing the slider (and maybe the changeup) more often can only be a good thing. He can always retool his pitch mix as needed, but the key here is the increased velocity and spin rates which show that he could have better quality pitches to work with this season.

 

Where to Draft

Keller is really only a guy you need to consider in deeper leagues. His current ADP is around 300 so there is very little risk in taking him there. This is pretty much a no-brainer for me, Keller is being undervalued in drafts for his upside. The bust potential is large but he clearly has more potential than the other pitchers being drafted around him. Is the velocity for real? Can he regain the confidence and mental toughness it takes to pitch at the MLB level? That remains to be seen. But if he's healthy this year, he has a chance to salvage his career and become a pretty solid pitcher. I'm here for the post-hype breakout and that's based on the evidence, not just wishful thinking! Take Keller late in drafts and hope that he puts it all together in 2022.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Isaiah Spiller

Raiders Waive Isaiah Spiller
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2

Bhayshul Tuten Could Be A Third-Round Pick
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fielding Calls For First Pick In Round 2
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
George Pickens

Steelers Receiving Calls About George Pickens
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Feel Forced To Draft A Running Back
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Bailey Falter

Good To Go To Start On Sunday Against Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw

Has Successful Second Rehab Outing
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jaxson Dart

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF