The outfield is thought of as a deep position that owners will pay top dollar for upper echelon talent. However there are plenty of players lurking amongst these groups that owners will surely overpay for on draft day that need to be brought to the forefront. The list includes young studs, hot off their freshman campaigns and wily veterans bound for imminent decline. Either way, these guys should be avoided at all costs. Don't be fooled by the smoke and mirrors of preseason hype.

Overvalued Outfielders for Fantasy Baseball

Kyle Schwarber (C / OF, CHC)

Schwarber burst onto the scene in 2015 launching 16 HR in 69 games for the Cubs, and gave fantasy owners a high upside catcher with more to come under 162 projected stats for 2016.

Right now however he has been moved to the outfield, but should still carry catcher eligibility. That will give a reprieve for his big power and low BA, even though he is now in the deep OF pool. His .246 BA last season is what owners should expect out of Schwarber, and although the power numbers are very enticing they also bring big risk. If his 28% K rate from last season does not come down, he could see huge discrepancies in efficiency - and with no DH to fall back on could be a risk for platoon work. Like Cruz, he will also be heavily adjusted to his inflated Pull% of 47%. Look out for even more strikeouts unless this correction is made sooner than later.

For the time being there should be no large danger of being platooned, as the Cubs will keep finding ways to get him in the lineup. His OBP and OPS must get better in order for him to be the true threat the Cubs need him to be in the middle of that young powerful lineup.

Schwarber is going off the board as the 2nd catcher taken in drafts (after Posey) and is being treated like he is going to put up 5th round value. The adjustments that Schwarber makes early in the season will show owners if he was worth the risk, but I feel as if a sophomore slump fits the bill for Schwarber who should put up good HR totals at the expense of several other key fantasy stats.

Matt Kemp (OF, SD)

Kemp enjoyed a resurgence of value in 2015 in the unfriendly confines of Petco Park, and was one of the few bright spots in the spend-happy 2015 campaign of the San Diego Padres. The Padres are back to being in rebuild mode, but kept Kemp as the centerpiece of their future--for now.

He collected his 3rd career 100 RBI season, and his first since his monster 2011 campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He also reached double digit steals in 2015, which seemed long gone from his arsenal after years of injury plagued seasons that cost him his speed.

Now for the reality check when it comes to Matt Kemp: His .311 BABIP and his .443 SLG% were his lowest figures since 2011, and his wOBA and wRC+ were the lowest they have ever been over any full season Kemp has played in. The Petco factor is very real, and Kemp being drafted in the upper echelon of outfielders should be taken with a grain of salt. His numbers are sure to once again decline with a heavier reliance on his services.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA)

Cruz has had a great run in Baltimore and in Seattle the past few seasons, eclipsing the 40 HR mark in both seasons while experiencing a revival of sorts in the twilight of his long career. However at 35-years-old the signs are there for regression for Mr. Cruz, and they come in two simple forms. The first is his Pull%, which has been hovering around 40% for the better part of his career.

Cruz is going to be pitched more inside, and will get less opportunities to cash in on at-bats due to the lineup around him and the adjustment that will be made for his presence in the heart of the Mariners lineup. The second spot for regression can be found in his career numbers for HR (44), R (90) and WAR (4.8). Surpassing those marks will probably not happen and should not be counted on for 2016. Even with a huge lift in BB%, BA, SLG%, OBP, wOBA and wRC+ in 2015 Cruz appears to be primed for serious regression.

There are several examples of players who reach their mid-30's and still have very productive campaigns, but Cruz feels like a guy who is going to have 6th or 7th round value at a 3rd round cost. Can he still be a great asset to any fantasy team? Unquestionably. I am simply not drafting a player I see regressing in the first few rounds in 2016.

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