Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 6)

May 4, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 6 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

As you know by now, I like to take a look around MLB as we head into the weekend and see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 5/2)

Alec Bohm (15)

Alec Bohm was the leader last week and he remains atop the board a week later. As you can see from the table above, Bohm is hitting .500 over the course of his hit streak, but it's not a bunch of one-hit games and singles. Bohm has nine multi-hit efforts during the 15-game streak with 10 doubles and three home runs. On the season, he's got 12 doubles, second most in all of baseball behind only Shohei Ohtani. This weekend, he'll face Jordan Hicks, Keaton Winn, and Logan Webb. I'd say this streak goes at least two more games.

Ozzie Albies (14)

Ozzie Albies' 14-game hit streak began before an injured list stint, but once he returned, the second baseman just kept on hitting. Somewhat surprisingly, the hit streak does not include any home runs after he hit a career-high 33 last season, but it does include eight doubles, so there's still some pop in that bat. Albies was hitting even before the streak, though, with at least one hit in 18 of 21 games he's played in this season, and 10 multi-hit efforts in all. The switch hitter doesn't see a lefty starter until Sunday in James Paxton, but he's notoriously more dangerous from the right side of the plate.

Ronald Acuña Jr.’s legs rattled Bryce Miller, and Ozzie Albies did the rest. #Braves #BravesCountry

pic.twitter.com/MvIRZcEhjZ

— Cory McCartney (@coryjmccartney) April 30, 2024

Tyler Nevin (9)

This is the type of name I was referring to in the opening when I said this exercise can be revealing. Tyler Nevin is Oakland's Ben Zobrist, playing games at third base (eight), first base (six), right field (seven), left field (six), and DH (three). When you're hitting like he is, you have to find ways to get the bat in the lineup. Five games in the nine-game streak have been multi-hit efforts, with four coming in his last four games, and the 26-year-old has home runs in three of his last four. He's eligible at 1B, 3B, and OF on Yahoo, but even if you're not interested for season-long, he could be a sneaky DFS play.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/1)

Jose Miranda (.526)

Take a closer look at this week's tables for sure, there are loads of diamond-in-the-rough names. Unfortunately I can't break them all down, but we'll take a look at the leader here: Jose Miranda. You might want to strike while the iron is hot, as the 25-year-old was hitting .200 prior to his last five games. Over the last five, however, Miranda has caught fire, with four multi-hit performances and going 10-for-19 (.526) during that stretch, which includes four doubles and one home run. You are probably staying away in season-long, but he's viable in DFS while he's hot.

Josh H. Smith (.450)

Josh H. Smith must have read my article that stated that Ezequiel Duran would be the better option for fantasy for Texas after Josh Jung hit the IL because it has been the complete opposite. Smith has been on base at least once in 18 straight games via hit, walk, or hit-by-pitch, and 27 of his last 28. Over the last six games, the 26-year-old is 8-for-17 (.471) with two singles, four doubles, two home runs, and a 3:3 BB:K. In deep leagues, he's an intriguing option for season-long fantasy, as he's collected 14 runs with 14 RBI and is eligible at 3B, SS, and OF on Yahoo.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/1)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Will Smith (.545)

Danny Jansen tops the list, but the fewest at-bats on the list. We already touched on Josh H. Smith earlier, so we'll skip to Will Smith real quick. Smith is one of the premier offensive backstops in the league and you don't need me to tell you that. But let's point out that he's got three doubles and three home runs over the past week, and if you've read anything of mine recently, you'll know that he's been crushing LHP so far this season, slashing .425/.489/.725 against the southpaws versus .314/.338/.457 against righties.

The Fresh Prince is heating up. 🔥

Will Smith's third home run in the last five games. pic.twitter.com/M1JkJyOsQa

— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2024

Carlos Santana (.464)

We have to touch on him since he's got the most total bases on the list above (21), but let's just say buyer beware. Not only does he have four home runs over the past week, he's also got 10 RBI. But if he's not doing that, he's not doing much else, as despite the hot streak, the 38-year-old is batting .286 over the past week and .182 on the season. He may be cooling off already, too, as he's 1-for-9 over his last two games.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Jacob Young (6)

There are only three players with more steals at this point in the season than Jacob Young, but all of them have at least 27 more at bats than he does. With 12 steals in 76 plate appearances, Young has a .16 SB/PA rate, better than the three players above him:

• Elly De La Cruz -  .14 SB/PA
• Brice Turang -  .13 SB/PA
• Ronald Acuna Jr. -  .10 SB/PA

With more play, Young could eclipse them all. After going 1-for-16 in his first five games this season, Young has gone 21-for-56 (.375) over the 18 games since. The 24-year-old isn't going to hit for power, but that's not why you're playing him. If he can continue to hit for average, score some runs, and potentially lead the league in stolen bases, then he should be rostered in more than 51% of fantasy leagues.

xBA Underachievers

(data through 5/1, minimum 50 AB)

Below are the hitters who have the biggest difference between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Brandon Nimmo (. 206 vs .296)

To say Brandon Nimmo has been a disappointment this season would an understatement, but there is a huge discrepancy between BA and xBA that suggests maybe it should get better for him. He was on this list last week, though, and every time it seems he's going to turn it around, he goes cold again. As the weather warms up, though, so too might Nimmo, and he may be a good buy-low candidate.

Shea Langeliers (.170 vs .251)

Shea Langeliers isn't going to win a batting title one day, but he should be hitting better than his .170 mark suggests. Last season, he hit just .205, but he hit 22 home runs for Oakland. If he can do that, he can begin to make himself relevant for fantasy again. The 26-year-old has six home runs on the season with 13 RBI and 10 runs scored, so if he can go on a hot streak while padding the power numbers, he may be worth rostering at some point.

Shea Langeliers - Oakland Athletics (6)
pic.twitter.com/jOEJ9hyZsv

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 26, 2024

xBA Overachievers

We'll touch on a couple of hitters who will probably come back to Earth soon. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well, so don't expect them to go ice cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Connor Wong  (.366 vs .254)

Connor Wong was here last week, but he kept on hitting, although his last home run was April 24. Perhaps that is the first indication of a slowdown. Whatever the case, Wong is rosterable in season-long until he cools off considerably. As a career .250 hitter at the big league level, he's hitting at an unsustainable pace. The bold move off of this information would be to pivot off Wong and into Langeliers. The 27-year-old has a .412 BABIP to boot, which is another indication that perhaps regression is coming.

David Fry (.327 vs .244)

Sometimes you can make your own luck by beating out an infield single, but with David Fry's 26th percentile sprint speed, that's hard to do. With his average exit velocity of 88.5 on the season, it seems like perhaps some soft flies or line drives fell in for hits when they otherwise wouldn't have. An unsustainable .429 BABIP tends to back up the fact some luck got him to his current batting average. His worse-than-average K% of 23.4% doesn't bode well, either. I suspect Fry cools off soon.

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