RADIO
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RotoBaller Chris Hawkins takes a deeper look at Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday to see what's going on with this perennial fantasy baseball all-star.
Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Matt Holliday
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For the past 6 seasons, Matt Holliday has been as consistent a power hitter as there is in the game averaging 25 long balls a year. Unfortunately, for the Cardinals and fantasy players alike he hasn’t demonstrated this power in 2014 and is on pace to hit fewer than 10 HRs for the first time in his career.
As many of us in the fantasy sports world adhere to the ‘buy low-sell high’ theory, which side of the fence should you fall on after the first third of the season? When it comes to power related statistics, these typically stabilize by about this time of the season. Take a look at the data below:
| 2014 | 2011-13 AVG | Delta * | |
| ISO | 0.107 | 0.207 | -0.100 |
| HR% | 1.8% | 5.5% | -3.8% |
| HR/FB% | 5.60% | 16.6% | -11.0% |
| GB/FB | 1.59 | 1.35 | 0.24 |
* All amounts expressed in absolute terms
Yikes…there’s nothing positive in this chart. He’s elevating fewer balls and those that he does get under are leaving the park two-thirds less than before. In fairness, the Cardinals as a whole are slumping in the power department (29th in HRs, 29th in SLG and 24th ISO), but it’s not like the conditions at Busch Stadium this are year noticeably different compared to the prior three.
He’s still drawing walks and striking out in line with his career rates, and his BABIP isn’t irregular so he should post a good AVG and OBP. He should still hit in the middle of the order and with the lineup around him, I expect the runs scored and RBI in to still be in the 90s, so all is not lost, but I would use those as selling points.
While I do expect more than 10 total HRs once the season is over (I’ve watched him play, and the power is not all dried up so some type of brief power streak will likely appear at some point), it looks like the veteran outfielder has hit a serious wall. If you can find someone willing to buy him for 75-80 cents on the dollar expecting he’ll return to his 25 HR form by the end of the season, I’d be willing to sell now before the reality of the power outage becomes more apparent.
