April 25, 2017

Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel NBA DFS lineup picks for 4/25/17, as well as a couple of sleepers to keep in mind while building your roster.

The outcomes (or impending outcomes, I should say) of these playoff series' have been somewhat predictable. In the daily fantasy world, the outcomes have not been predictable. Like, at all. The rotations coaches have been rolling with are wildly inconsistent - and sometimes maddening - and the injury and sickness bugs have been biting here and there. I'll try to make sense of the games on deck for tonight. Speaking of said games, there are three on Tuesday evening. The Thunder at Rockets kick us off at 8:05 (extra time for lineup decisions!), followed by the Grizzlies at Spurs at 9:05 and the Jazz at Clippers take us home, beginning at 10:35.

Before I get into my player picks and analysis, let's see what we can gather from Vegas lines and spreads that may help us in deciding which games to target or teams to stack. As of this writing, none of the over/under lines are all that attractive, save for the highest total of the night, which belongs to the Thunder at Rockets game (222). From a point spread standpoint, the most attractive figure we have is in the nightcap game out in Los Angeles, with a spread of just 3.5. If you're looking to deploy a stack or two tonight, I'd suggest chasing players in the Houston game, and perhaps a dart or two in the Los Angeles game.

In this article, I will be providing you with daily NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/25/17. The picks will range from some of the elite players, to mid-priced options, and value plays. Let's get rolling.

FanDuel DFS Guards

Chris Paul - PG, vs UTA ($10,400)

I won't claim to have seen this dramatic increase in fantasy performance from Paul in the post Blake Griffin world, but I have certainly enjoyed the ride. Paul has been a beast this series, consistently putting up point totals of 41 points a night - three of which were all more than 54 points. From a salary based expectations perspective, Paul has been crushing value for quite some time now. In his last 10, he's outperformed said expectations in each of those last 10 - by an impressive margin of 9.18 FanDuel points per night. As for tonight, even at this price tag, I think he's in prime position to have a great night. His team's back is against the wall, he consistently plays more than 35 minutes, and he's been shooting the ball very well in this series. In fact, he's yet to shoot less than 50% from the field in any of the four games, and he's done it at a pretty high volume, too. Tonight, I have him projected for 35-38 minutes and a Usage rate of 33.

Also Consider: Russell Westbrook - PG, at HOU ($14,700) - GPP; George Hill - PG, at LAC ($5,700) - value 

Lou Williams - SG, vs OKC ($4,900)

Lou Williams has been relatively lighting it up in this first round series against the Thunder. The 30-year-old veteran is playing a huge role off the bench for this Rockets team, consistently shooting 10+ shots a game and contributing a few assists here and there. Don't let "off the bench" scare you. Yes, minutes are the most precious thing in NBA DFS, but Williams has played at least 21 minutes in each of the four games, and the minutes have been trending upward, as Williams saw the floor for 30+ in the last two contests. This is a pace up games for both teams, meaning tons of possessions and opportunity for the value-priced shooting guard. For the year, Williams has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute, and tonight he projected for 30-32 minutes and a Usage rate of 25.

Also Consider: James Harden - SG, vs OKC ($12,500) - GPP; Jamal Crawford - SG, vs UTA ($3,600) - value

FanDuel DFS Forwards

Andre Roberson - SF, at HOU ($5,800)

Small forward is a position tonight where I think you can get away with using mid-tier guys that have strong matchups that should provide plus expected value and still be in the hunt for a tournament win. Kawhi Leonard is incredibly expensive, and you have to worry about the blowout risk there. I'm aware the series is tied, but this is Gregg Popovich and the Spurs coming off a loss - not to mention the fact that Vegas has this game at an 11 point spread as of Tuesday morning. Roberson has been playing extended minutes this season, and with the defense he provides, those minutes are safe. Those minutes create a very nice floor for fantasy owners, and his recent play and this matchup suggest he can score plenty of points above that floor. Of all the teams taking the floor tonight, the Rockets happen to be the worst defensively against small forwards.

Also Consider:  Joe Ingles - SF, at LAC ($5,100)

Zach Randolph - PF, at SAS ($6,400)

In their last game, Randolph slid into a starting role and didn't have the most amazing performance. He didn't do all that bad, putting up 23 points in 35 minutes of action, but if you rostered him like myself, you were left wanting more. Without that out of the way, I'm here to tell you that  despite that performance and and whether or not he starts or comes off the bench tonight, he is a nice option to hit and surpass value. Randolph has been able to surpass value in two of his last three games and he's seen a minutes increase in that stretch, too. He has a Usage projection above 25 tonight and should see more than 30 minutes again. For this price, you really can't do better than that.

Also Consider: David Lee - PF, vs MEM ($3,200)

FanDuel DFS Centers

Marc Gasol - C, at SAS ($7,900)

If you're able (and/or willing) to pay up at center tonight - and I think you might, seeing as the basement is pretty barren - Gasol is the best option of the three you would consider. That group of three consists of Gasol, Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan. For starters, Gasol has the lowest price tag of the group and has been playing the best basketball among them. In terms of the matchup, Jordan has the most difficult one to tackle, while Gasol's and Gobert's defensive opponents have allowed similar numbers. The issue with Gobert, while he generally represents a high ceiling, is that he isn't entirely healthy. He may be worth a dart in tournament formats, but I wouldn't suggest him in cash or using much of your bankroll on him in any format. Gasol gets two more yes votes from me by having the the most favorable stats among the three in two very important DFS statistics - minutes and Usage rate.

Also Consider: Steven Adams - C, at HOU ($5,300)

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