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Mark Strausberg highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 4/20/21, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
Welcome Rotoballers to another set of Tuesday FanDuel lineup picks! There is a late afternoon game, followed by a slate of four games mid-evening, and then the main slate. If you have questions about the former two, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions (@MarkStrausberg). But the focus will be on the main slate.
And this slate has a lot of options without having too many options. But one game I will be staying away from tonight is the late game between Milwaukee and San Diego. Both those teams would be in the playoffs if they started today. Both teams have upside pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Chris Paddack. But the Padres have 70 runs already this year and the Brewers are right on their heels with 69 runs, putting both in the top half of the league.
It has the potential to be a great game, which is exactly why I am staying away from it for DFS purposes. We could see a slug-fest, a pitcher's duel, or a runaway. That kind of variation I will pass on when it comes to constructing my DFS lineup. I will also spare you the mentioning of hitters playing in Coors tonight. They will be popular of course but if I'm going to go with high ownership, there is another stack I like far better. Who are some of those players?
Featured Promo! Save 50% on any PGA Premium Pass using discount code MASTERS, this week only! Win more with our DFS and Betting Packages, get expert tools and advice from proven winners including the Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, betting/props cheat sheet and more. GAIN FULL ACCESS HERERead below to find out what player I do like, in providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 4/20/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also check out today's DraftKings MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. With that out of the way, let's get t0 my winning picks!
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
In addition to fading Corbin and Paddack, I will also be fading Shohei Ohtani. I know there's a lot of temptation there, but its been reported already that Ohtani will see a pitch count of around 75. My guess is he makes it midway through the fifth inning. With plenty of other options in his price range, I will be fading Ohtani. The ceiling is just not worth the pitch count. I'll be leaning heavily toward one of these two options:
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Zack Wheeler - PHI vs SFG ($9,400)
Yes, the Giants have been surprisingly good so far this season. But the fact remains that outside of the Mets who have played just 13 games this season, no team has fewer runs than the Giants. The Giants are tied for the second-lowest runs in the league with both the Cubs and Nationals, both of whom have played fewer games than the Giants. Their team slash line is .205/.285/.372, so let's not run away from them just yet.
I don't expect that slash line to improve either against Zack Wheeler who has a 3.00 ERA and 20Ks in three starts so far this year. Wheeler has a 2.93 ERA since the Phillies signed him two years ago and is looking a lot like the pitcher who struck out 195 batters in 2019. We have had to deal with the potential threat of a rain delay/cancellation in Philadelphia lately (Always Sunny in Philadelphia my tuchus!), but a beautiful day is expected for the city of brotherly love. Wheeler is an easy play.
GPP Play
Jon Gray, COL vs HOU ($6,600)
A Coors pitcher, are you nuts? Hear me out. Because if there is one Rockies pitcher I trust in Coors, it is Gray. His career HR/9 is not bad and only the slightest bit higher at home versus away (1.11 vs 1.09). He actually has a better K/BB ratio in Colorado than he does away from Coors (3.58 vs 2.73). Moreover, Gray currently has a 2.87 ERA and already had a strong game against the NL-West leading Dodgers in Colorado. He gave up just one run and struck out 7.
1-2-3 inning for Jon Gray pic.twitter.com/iGf3QJJTwj
— RoxGifsVids (@RoxGifsVids) April 15, 2021
I am more impressed with that performance, but he also shut down the Diamondbacks at Coors, limiting them to just one run as well. And now he takes on a depleted Astros lineup? If he strikes out half a dozen, goes five innings, and gives up just one run again, that will be a huge profit at this low salary.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B, STL at WSH ($3,800)
Yes, I'm stacking Cards and we will get to how juicy this match-up is later. What I like about Goldschmidt, in particular, is that he is coming off his best game of the year yesterday. Goldschmidt went 3-for-5 with a homer. And we know Goldy can often put together a string of strong fantasy days. It's almost impossible not to when you are a career .293 hitter who hit 30+ homers each of his last three full seasons. That kind of production is DFS....gold. (Stop groaning, you know you were thinking the same thing!)
Whit Merrifield - 2B/OF, KCR at ARI ($4,000)
So unlike Goldschmidt, we can't say Merrifield is coming in hot, as he put up a goose egg last night. However, that was his first since April 7th. He's batting .298; is first in stolen bases with five; and is top ten in HR, RBIs, and RBIs. What's not to like? Throw in the fact that the right-handed Merrifield is facing the left-handed Rich Hill and his 7.53 ERA, I got a good feeling about Merrifield tonight.
Nolan Arenado - 3B STL at WSH ($4,000)
But if Rich Hill's 7.53 ERA is appealing, you know I'm salivating at stacking Cardinals against Patrick Corbin's 21.32 ERA. Okay, so maybe Corbin has not been as bad as 21.32 ERA might suggest. But given that his FIP is sitting at 13.68, avoiding the Cards could be a big mistake. After years closer to a 30% strikeout rate, he dropped down to just over 20% last year. This season, he's at an even worse 15%. Given that Arenado has an OPS of .835 and has the lefty/righty advantage against Corbin, I'm expecting Arenado to be a major cog in the Cardinal run machine tonight.
Paul DeJong - SS, STL at WSH ($2,800)
He's not hitting two HRs again tonight. And if you are dumb enough to think he will, please reach out to me so we can wager on that. However, his floor ain't so bad either. The last time he failed to score fantasy points was ten days ago. He's first in the league in HRs, but again, I'm not expecting that to last. However, he is also first in runs. Given that he had nearly 100 of them in 2019, that is not a mirage. DeJong is a dependable source of fantasy production.
The Cardinals are a chalky stack and you usually have to pay for a high floor. In DeJong's case, we do not.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Dylan Carlson - OF, STL at WSH ($3,200)
I know, it might seem like I am chasing last night's run production from St. Louis, but I really like what I have seen from Carlson so far.
Cardinals rookie Dylan Carlson turns on the jets for his first triple of the year. pic.twitter.com/kX2D8f1y4F
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 20, 2021
He's shown some nifty speed, but he is a five-tool player. The switch-hitting Carlson has an even higher OPS (.917) than Arenado and the Cardinals have rewarded him by moving him up in the order. If you are stacking Cards like I am, you should include Carlson.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - OF, TOR at BOS ($2,200)
And to afford some of the Cardinal big bats, we need to do some deep bargain bin hunting. Barely above the Mendoza line, Gurriel has picked it up lately. and has six games in a row with fantasy points. He has been a bit unlucky so far this season, currently dragged down by a .257 BABIP. Given that he's a .282 career hitter who smacked 20 HRs in 2019, we should see continued positive regression. At $2200, I'm willing to bet I'm right.
Jorge Soler - OF, KCR vs TBR ($2,700)
And we wrap it up with another hitter who is also struggling, Jorge Soler. Soler is batting an emaciated .156 right now. His BABIP of .261 is low as well, and we should see him move closer to his career .250 career average. And let's not forget that in his last full season, Soler smacked 48 HRs. He had 679 ABs that year and is unlikely to match that number. But like Gurriel, positive regression is coming. And against the aforementioned Rich Hill and his 1.43 WHIP, I think Soler will have a much sunnier output tonight.
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