September 8, 2015

Kevin Luchansky analyzes some MLB DFS lineup picks & sleepers for 9/8/15 on FanDuel fantasy baseball daily leagues. His DFS advice and value picks help you win on FanDuel.

I hope everyone had a great Labor Day Weekend!

We're back to a full slate of games tonight, with first pitch scheduled at 7:05 EDT. Now, let's get to the good stuff.

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Offenses to Target for FanDuel Stacking

I'm having a tough time zeroing in on just one or two stacks. Not because there aren't enough options, but rather there are a few teams you can make a good case for. In the interest of giving you enough information to make a good decision, I'll list a few reasons why each team deserves your consideration.

Tampa Bay Rays RHB/LHB versus Matt Boyd

Matt Boyd isn't a major league quality starting pitcher. In fact, he's a Quad-A guy at best - at least for now. For the season, he's 1-5 with a 8.36 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. In his last three starts, his numbers are even worse, headlined by a 9.88 ERA. Yes, you read that correctly. Both left-handed and right-handed hitters have smashed him this season, so you can make a good case for choosing either side. The best play might actually be to target the Rays 1-4 or 2-5 hitters in the order. Lefty bats own a .495 wOBA and .771 slugging percentage and righties are close behind, with a .422 wOBA and .602 slugging percentage. Sure, it isn't the greatest hitter's park, but tonight, it might not matter. Vegas has this one pegged with an over/under of 9 runs, with the Rays as -120 favorites.

Braves LHB versus Aaron Nola

We know two things for certain - Philadelphia is a great power park for left-handed batters and Phillies starter doesn't miss a whole lot of bats. This bodes well for the Braves lefties, most notably Nick Markakis, Freddie Freeman and the recently swinging a hot bat Jace Peterson. For the season, lefties are hitting Nola pretty well, marked by .343 wOBA and .469 slugging percentage. Vegas has this one on the books for an over/under of 8.5 runs.

Tigers RHB versus Erasmo Ramirez

Erasmo was never much of a quality starting pitcher to begin with, but he did have himself a nice stretch in the middle of the season, quieting bats with slugging percentages under .360 in May, June and July. Recently? Not so much. In fact, he's been getting shelled, and most of the damage is thanks to hitters standing to the right of the plate. For the season, right-handed hitters own a .343 wOBA and .444 slugging and those numbers have shot up quite a bit. He's also been particularly terrible on the road, allowing a .536 slugging percentage and 1.78 HR/9.

Red Sox versus R.A. Dickey

Remember when Dickey was a somewhat-dominant front-end starter for the Mets? Seems like a distant memory, right? Dickey has been wildly inconsistent this year and despite a 3-0 record (run support!) over his last three starts, his ERA is just south of 5 runs per game with a 1.32 WHIP. Right-handed hitters have particularly hit him hard on the road, a place he'll be today, to the tune of a .377 wOBA and .512 slugging percentage. Look for the Green Monster to take some dents tonight. Oh, and with the 1.23 HR/9 he posted in August, expect to see some balls clear the monster, too.

Blue Jays versus Henry Owens

I don't - or shouldn't - have to throw too many numbers at you to convince you that the best offense in baseball facing a rookie in a hitter's park is a good stacking opportunity.

Diamondbacks versus Tim Hudson

Mr. Hudson has been on the down slope for quite some time now and he's facing a potent Diamondbacks team in an excellent power hitter's park. Goldschmidt is the top option today, but AJ Pollock and Ender Inciarte are great plays as well. Both left-handed and right-handed hitters have handled Hudson quite well this season.

Honorable Mention: Phillies versus Ryan Weber

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel

My starting pitchers didn't quite pan out the way I wanted them to yesterday (though Bauer was serviceable), but my inclination to not pay up for the high priced aces turned out to be the right move. I've got a similar feeling today, as I'm not considering paying the high price for Clayton Kershaw as the matchup isn't particularly appealing.

Cole Hamels (SP, TEX) - $10,600

Okay, so Hamels hasn't been for the Rangers what they were hoping to receive when they acquired him from the Phillies, but he hasn't been terrible, either. In his most recent start, he struck out eight and allowed three earned, good for solid night on FanDuel. Tonight, he faces a Mariners team that could be again without Nelson Cruz and does so in an incredible pitcher's park. Even better, the Mariners team is left-handed bat heavy, so Hamels has the advantage there. For the season, he's striking out 23% of the left-handed hitters he faces.

Raisel Iglesias (SP, CIN) - $8,400

I definitely liked Iglesias as my GPP guy before he was receiving so much hype and attention, but it's all warranted, as he has above-average stuff and strikes out a lot of batters. He's pretty reasonably priced today and perhaps pitching in Great American Ballpark will scare some opponents off. For as good a team the Pirates have been, they don't scare me offensively too much and they are right-handed bat heavy, a side in which Iglesias performs better against. RHB are currently hitting .156 against him this season and he's mowing them down (see: striking out) at a rate over 36%!

Matt Harvey (SP, NYM) - $10,900

Fair warning: I'm throwing this out there as strictly a "hunch" play. No statistics. If that doesn't work for you, I understand. Just skim past this. The hunch? The Dark Knight take the mound in the wake of his innings limit and pitches like a man possessed, strikes out 7+ and earns the win for the Metropolitans.

Honorable Mention: Colin Rea (SP, SDP) and Jon Gray (SP, COL)

DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel

John Jaso (C, TAM) - $3,000

Jaso is one of those odd characters that has great reverse splits. The lefty hits southpaws incredibly well, highlighted by his .423 wOBA this season. He's also usually pegged in the four-hole in the order, upping his value.

Brian McCann (C, NYY) - $4,100

McCann is a bit pricey, but for the price you get a real strong wOBA against right-handed pitching (.351), a strong ISO (.249) and a game being played in a great home run park in the Bronx.

David Ortiz (1B, BOS) - $4,300

Poor R.A. Dickey. Big Papi and his .429 wOBA, .329 ISO and .626 slugging percentage this season against RHP should play quite nicely this evening.

Darrell Sweeney (2B, PHI) - $2,900

The switch-hitting Sweeney has a pretty juicy matchup tonight against a kid making his MLB debut. Sweeney currently has a .405 wOBA and .329 ISO against RHP this season.

Logan Forsythe (2B, TAM) - $4,000

I can't see Logan disappointing two days in a row, especially when he's got a great matchup once again. Forsythe has a .600 slugging percentage against southpaws on the year.

Josh Donaldson (3B, TOR) - $5,400

The Bringer of Rain really needs no introduction. He's been murdering baseballs on the regular this season. His numbers against left-handed pitching? How about a .458 wOBA and .672 slugging percentage.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, TOR) - $3,900

So he doesn't exactly have the numbers against LHP that teammate Donaldson has, but he's got a fair price considering his wOBA is over .400 and his slugging percentage is .548.

Ivan De Jesus (SS, CIN) $2,200

If you're looking for a bargain or punt at shortstop, De Jesus is your man. Liriano is a tough matchup, but where else can you find a hitter with a .332 wOBA and .439 slugging against lefties for minimum price?

DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel

If you're searching for some deep ball threats, you've come to the right place. Spent too much on your infielders? You're also in the right place. Take a look at a few of these bargain guys with power numbers.

Mikie Mahtook (OF, TAM) - $2,300

Mahtook has really strong power numbers against LHP and he faces a garbage one tonight in Matt Boyd. A .345 ISO and .586 slugging percentage are very appealing, especially for just $100 over the minimum.

David Peralta (OF, ARI) - $3,300

I love the matchup and lineup position Peralta has and should be in, respectively, this evening. He has a .393 wOBA and .229 ISO against righties this season.

Ryan Raburn (OF, CLE) - $2,600

I find it really hard to believe a guy with such strong power splits against southpaws could be priced so low, but here we are.

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) - $3,100

The rookie sensation just keeps getting hotter. Zimmerman is a solid starter, but Conforto's splits - .410 wOBA and .510 slugging - are strong enough for roster consideration. Keep an eye on where he falls in the lineup.

DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6 PM on 9/8

Leave your question here and then come back at 6 PM when Max answers everything. For our regular MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat, click here.

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