May 5, 2017

The top FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 5/04/17 by Kevin Luchansky. Expert MLB DFS advice, sleepers & player recommendations for FanDuel.

Happy Cinco De Mayo my fellow daily fantasy friends! Let's kick off the weekend with some tequila, strikeouts and dingers. Sounds like a pretty good recipe for fun if you ask me. On deck tonight we have a 13 game Main slate that begins at 7:05, and FanDuel gives us an All Day slate option as well, which includes all 30 teams and begins at 2:20 Eastern. The majority of my picks will focus on the Main slate, but if there are any eye-popping stats among the four teams taking the field under the sun, I'll make mention of those as well.

Before we jump into my player selection analysis and rationale, let's see if we can gather any insights from the early lines Vegas has posted. As of right now, we have two teams featuring incredibly attractive run total projections. It should come as no surprise that these teams are competing at Coors Field today. The Diamondbacks (5.7) and Rockies (5.6) top the list, followed by the Red Sox (4.9), Orioles (4.8) and Reds (4.6). The heaviest moneyline favorites of the day - helping in identifying which cash game pitchers to target and which to fade - are the Nationals (-168), Orioles (-162) and the Indians (-161). Those aren't very big differentials compared to most days, but still something to consider.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/05/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays. Let's get rolling.

Offensive Stacks

Baltimore Orioles versus Miguel Gonzalez

Gonzalez hasn't pitcher too poorly this season, but he's in for a rude awakening in this contest. The Orioles are projected with one of the highest run totals of the day (4.8) and Gonzalez, despite not getting blown up too hard just yet in 2017, doesn't have very strong indicating stats that he'd be able to maintain the success he's had. His strikeout numbers are well below average, his WHIP is less than ideal (1.2+) and he's allowed an opponent wOBA over .300 in his last three starts. What is extra attractive about this Orioles lineup is that they can get it done by stringing together hits or leaving the yard in back-to-back swings. They feature quite a few hitters in the top-to-middle of their order with ISO splits far over the league average, starting with Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones and Seth Smith.

Washington Nationals versus Nick Pivetta 

The Nationals get a nice park upgrade boost tonight and a date with Nick Pivetta. Both of those are positive things, and the Nationals lineup has been nothing but positive as well. Pivetta doesn't really have any major league stats worth throwing out there. In the few innings he's thrown this year, he has been hit very hard, but the sample size is small. What we can gather, though, is that he is going to be quite over-matched against a team that is hitting the ball in a class all my themselves. There are a number of Nationals hitters with great splits, so you'll have your pick of the litter. Personally, my Nationals stack will consist of: Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. Matt Wieters may be worth a share or two as well, depending on the construction of the rest of your lineup.

Also Consider: Arizona Diamondbacks versus German Marquez 

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

I have good news and bad news for you. Let's start with the good: there are a number of quality pitching options on the board tonight. Now for the bad news - you need to decide on one for cash games, and deciding between a few of these guys is like splitting hairs.

Yu Darvish - SP, at SEA ($10,600)

Determining the "safest" option to roll with today for cash game contests is tough to do. It's a good problem since we're not stuck using risky "tournament type" pitchers and elevating them into cash game roles as we did yesterday, but it can also lead to a lot of second guessing. The top choice for me is Yu, and it has a lot do with the the elite ceiling he possesses. He has been pretty fantastic this year as well, showing great consistency by surpassing his price implied value in three of his last four games. For tonight, he's a moneyline favorite and while the Mariners offense is a solid one, Darvish does get a pitcher's park upgrade with this game taking place in Seattle. He possesses elite strikeout upside (11.4 K/9 this season) and he has been pretty good in limiting base runners (1.1 WHIP). The Mariners run total projection of just 3.6 is pretty great relative to the rest of this Friday slate, and his 52% groundball rate over the last 15 days is attractive as well.

Kenta Maeda - SP, at SDP ($8,400)

If tournaments are more your cup of tea, Maeda is in a great spot for you tonight. This season he's shown big strikeout numbers (9.6 K/9) and while he has had some troubling starts (which will keep his ownership percentage at a more opportune number), he has the type of matchup against the Padres that is worth the risk. It's no secret that San Diego's offense has been pretty awful, and its also been pretty publicized that they have a strikeout problem - which is good for you and me rostering Maeda tonight. In fact, the Padres projected lineup tonight has struck out this season in nearly 28% of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching and the fact this game will be played in the super spacious Petco Park is even better for Maeda-backers.

Also Consider: Stephen Strasburg - SP, at PHI ($10,400)

FanDuel DFS Infielders

Yasmani Grandal - C, vs SDP ($2,700)

Outside of this game taking place in a park with big outfield dimensions, there isn't anything I don't love about the Yasmanian Devil in this matchup. The big catcher hits right in the middle of this potent Dodgers lineup and he's priced as a bargain - especially when you consider he's facing a right-hander and draws most of his power when he's standing on the left side of the plate. This season, he already has very impressive splits to showoff, starting with his .346 wOBA and a .270 ISO.

Also Consider: Manny Pina - C, at PIT ($2,700)

Freddie Freeman - 1B, vs STL ($4,500)

Is there anyone in baseball hotter than Freddie right now? He's literally killing it, and even with his price rising, he has still managed to surpass his price implied value in seven of the Braves' last 10 games. Tonight, he's a must play in cash game formats as he's got a good matchup and excellent splits to boot. Against right-handed pitching this season, Freeman has an incredible wOBA/ISO/Slugging% line of .446/.341/.666. The matchup is made a little more attractive thanks to Atlanta's new stadium being hitter friendly and Lance Lynn's terrible road splits.

Also Consider: Trey Mancini - 1B, vs CWS ($3,000)

Daniel Murphy - 2B, at PHI ($4,100)

Usually I want some exposure to the teams with the highest projected run totals - especially in cash game formats - and today is no different. The Nationals lineup has been incredible this season in pushing runs across the plate, and a big reason why is Murphy in the heart of their order. The lefty has been up to his usual ways this season, killing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .407 wOBA and a .248 ISO. His opponent, Nick Pivetta, is going to be quite over-matched in this one.

Also Consider: Ryan Schimpf - 2B, vs LAD ($3,100)

Jake Lamb - 3B, at COL ($4,600)

A steep price to pay? Sure. But I'm hard pressed finding anything not to love about Mr. Lamb and this Friday night matchup he has in front of him. The Diamondbacks are currently projected for the most runs of the day, Lamb hits in the middle of the order, and this game is taking place at Coors Field. The next wave of persuasion: he's facing a pretty mediocre and inexperienced pitcher in German Marquez and Marquez has allowed a .362 wOBA over the last 15 days. And finally, Lamb's splits are eye-popping: .381 wOBA and a .300 ISO.

Also Consider: Jedd Gyorko - 3B, at ATL ($3,200)

Aledmys Diaz - SS, at ATL ($3,000)

I really do love me some Aledmys Diaz. It seems that no matter how hot or cold he gets at the plate, he stays right around the $3k mark, and I dig that. Right now, he's starting to heat up, and he's in an opportune place, hitting in the two-hole for a team that is swinging it well and gets a park upgrade for tonight's contest. For the season, Diaz has shown really good reverse splits, posting a .347 wOBA and a .215 ISO against righties.

Also Consider: Carlos Correa - SS, at LAA ($3,800)

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

Cody Bellinger - OF, at SDP ($2,800)

My picks have leaned on the expensive side today, so I wanted to lead with value for my outfield guys. Make no mistake, on a huge contest day such as this, there is value to be had at every position. There just also happens to be really good matchups for some of the elite-priced players, and I'd being do an injustice not to point them out. Now, as for Bellinger, the kid is in a great spot. West coast ball players happen to go overlooked, so I love the leverage I think Bellinger and his teammates will possess tonight in San Diego, especially for tournaments. Bellinger is projected for the two-slot in this loaded lineup and in a short amount of time this season, he's been very strong against right-handed pitching, posting a .450 wOBA and a .350 ISO.

Jackie Bradley - OF, at MIN ($3,000)

I think Jackie Bradley could be one of the sneakiest and profitable plays of the evening. Since his return to the lineup, he's been hitting near the bottom of the order and this game is being played in a park - Minnesota - that's more pitcher friendly than the one JBJ plays half of his games in. All the aforementioned sound like minor red flags, but I think Bradley can take advantage of Phil Hughes tonight. Hughes has been pretty kind to opposing hitters, allowing a .361 opponent wOBA thus far and over 3 seconds of average air time on batted balls. Bradley possesses powerful splits against righties as well, showcased by his .253 ISO and .520 slugging percentage marks.

Mark Trumbo - OF, vs CWS ($3,200)

Big Mark is due tonight. He's been middling around this price range and just barely hitting value of late, but he's ready to pop. His splits against righties are very attractive - .360 wOBA, .286 ISO - and he's facing a fly ball pitcher that has allowed batted balls to fly an average of more than three second this season. Something has to give, and I think Trumbo busts out of his "slump" here.

Also Consider: Adam Jones - OF, vs CWS ($3,000)

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