Fact or Fiction: Surprising Fantasy Football Performances From C.J. Stroud, De'Von Achane, Tank Dell, more

September 27, 2023

Justin looks at surprising fantasy football performances from C.J. Stroud, De'Von Achane, Tank Dell and more. Are these players emerging fantasy assets?

Week 3 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the third week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 3. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?

C.J. Stroud - QB, Houston Texans

Week 3 stats: 20-for-30, 280 yards, two touchdowns, three carries, 14 rushing yards - overall QB10

Three games into his NFL career, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud appears to actually be good. I know it might come as a shock to you to learn an Ohio State quarterback actually looks good in the NFL, but Stroud appears to be the real deal.

The rookie has yet to throw an interception and threw a pair of touchdowns in Sunday's win over the Jaguars, giving him four touchdown passes this season. He's completing a solid 64.5% of his pass attempts.

I'm sure at some point Stroud's going to get picked off because that's how football works. Three games in, I'm ready to anoint him as a startable fantasy quarterback, someone down in the QB1/QB2 liminal space.

One reason? Game script. The Texans defense stepped up against the Jaguars, but Houston is still allowing the seventh-most yards per play. The defense is going to lead to Houston being in passing situations a lot of the time, especially in the second half as they try to chase their way back into the game. Stroud's poise in the pocket and the accuracy he's shown combined with a pass-heavy script will allow him to post strong numbers most weeks.

Verdict: Fact

De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins

Week 3 stats: 18 carries, 203 yards, two touchdowns, four receptions, 30 yards, two touchdowns - overall RB1

I probably don't need to say this, but Miami Dolphins rookie running back De'Von Achane isn't going to score four touchdowns every game. The Dolphins offense is good, but scoring 70 points isn't sustainable. They'll go back to scoring half of that, which, I should point out, is still really, really good.

A better question when it comes to Achane is if Sunday's performance is a sign of increased usage going forward. Because coming into this game, Achane had barely touched the football. After being inactive in Week 1, he debuted against the Patriots and had one carry and one target while playing just six offensive snaps, 10% of the team's total snaps.

This week, he played 30 snaps, which was 41% of the snaps. Pretty high usage rate for Achane based on that snap percentage — he touched the ball on 73.3% of his snaps.

The game script plays into that rate somewhat, as teams run the ball more when they have a lead. However, Achane had four carries on the team's second drive, with Miami up just 7-0 to begin the drive. So while two of his touchdowns came in the fourth quarter and one came with the backup quarterback in the game, it's not like he built his whole day off garbage time.

Because of that, I do think this is a sign that Achane's role should remain expanded going forward. At the same time, I don't think we can expect someone playing 40% of the snaps to be an RB1 play, so don't expect Achane to single-handedly lead you to a fantasy title. He is a high-ceiling RB2-3 play now, which is a big step up from where he was at entering Week 3.

Verdict: Fact-ish

Tank Dell - WR, Houston Texans

Week 3 stats: Seven targets, five receptions, 145 yards, one touchdown - overall WR6

Last week, I cautioned that Nico Collins was good, but that the emergence of Tank Dell capped his upside. One week later, we've got even more evidence to suggest that's the case.

The rookie wideout caught five of his seven targets this week for 145 yards and a touchdown, the second week in a row that he's found the end zone. Though he's a little on the smaller side at 5-foot-8, Dell's speed makes him a major mismatch.

I detailed above why I expect the Texans passing offense to remain strong. I won't repeat myself here. Instead, let's focus on why I think Dell's the top weapon in this passing game.

One key one is that he's getting the football. His seven targets were the most of any Texans player this week and were four more than Collins saw. In Week 2, his 10 targets led the team as well. That's two-thirds of the games this year that have seen Dell be the most targeted Texans player.

He's also just been, well...better than the other players. Out of the team's four players with double-digit targets, Dell leads in success rate and catch percentage. He's slightly behind Collins in yards per reception and yards per game, but that's almost entirely because of Week 1 when Dell was still getting adjusted to the NFL.

Tank Dell is Houston's best wideout right now. He won't put up WR1 numbers each week, but he should be in fantasy lineups.

Verdict: Fact

Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions

Week 3 stats: 11 targets, eight catches, 84 yards, one touchdown - overall TE1

Detroit Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta caught eight passes for 84 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta this week. His 11 targets were a career-high, equaling his combined targets from his first two NFL games. The touchdown was the first of his career.

LaPorta, the latest in a long line of Iowa tight ends, is going to be a stud in the NFL. He's got great size and hands. He'll be finding the end zone a lot.

I'm not ready to say LaPorta's a fantasy TE1 for the rest of the 2023 season. While he's been the No. 2 target for Jared Goff so far, that's been with Jameson Williams suspended. We're halfway through that suspension, so every game brings us closer to Goff getting his true second option back. LaPorta's going to have three more games to establish himself, but I think his numbers take a hit once Williams is back in the fold. He's a mid/low TE1 play for now but might fall back into the TE2 conversation as the season goes along.

Verdict: Fact, For Now, But Maybe Not Later On

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