Fact or Fiction: Breaking Down Week 1's Surprising Performances

September 13, 2023

Justin Carter looks at surprising NFL player performances from Week 1. Are these signs that the player is a fantasy football riser, or was it just an anomaly?

Week 1 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the first week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 1. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?

Mac Jones - QB, New England Patriots

Week 1 stats: 35-for-54, 316 yards, three touchdowns, one interception - overall QB2

Sunday's game was the 35th of Mac Jones' career. His 54 pass attempts were the most he's ever thrown, and it was just the second time he's thrown more than 45 passes in a game.

The Patriots brought in Bill O'Brien this offseason, something that some people expected would help boost the Patriots' passing attack. I was suspicious because I watched a whole lot of O'Brien-era Texans games. But one game in, well...maybe the Patriots really are going to unleash Mac.

That being said, I doubt he's unleashed to this level on a consistent basis. New England is 1-9 in games where Jones has attempted at least 36 passes. Part of it is just that playing from behind leads to more pass attempts. But even then, he's thrown 10 picks in those 10 games. The Patriots should probably lean on running back Rhamondre Stevenson as much as possible.

What I'll say is this: I'm much higher on Jones after Sunday's game than I was before it, but I don't expect him to put up these kinds of numbers very often. He still has a fairly inconsistent group of pass-catchers and hasn't been particularly impressive as a thrower. He's definitely moved up from the QB3 range where he was during drafts, though. Consider him a decent QB2 option, but not the high-end QB1 play that he looked like on Sunday.

Verdict: Fact...ion

Tyler Allgeier - RB, Atlanta Falcons

Week 1 stats: 15 carries, 75 yards, two touchdowns, three receptions, 19 receiving yards - overall RB4

The Atlanta Falcons had two running backs finish as top-eight players in half PPR this week. Rookie Bijan Robinson finished as the RB8 in his NFL debut, which isn't much of a surprise.

What was a surprise, though, was that Tyler Allgeier was the RB4, behind only Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Christian McCaffrey. He did so thanks to a pair of touchdown runs.

The game showed something that I was expecting: that the Falcons don't want Desmond Ridder throwing the football. The second-year QB attempted just 18 passes, completing 15 of them for 115 yards. 11 of those completions went to a running back or tight end.

I'm pretty certain the Falcons will run a lot. But I'm not certain they'll run the ball with a split like they did on Sunday.

Allgeier had 15 carries to Robinson's 10 carries, while Robinson played 63% of the snaps and Allgeier played 56%. First, that's a surprising amount of time for both players to share the field. Second, it's really hard to see a path for Allgeier's snaps to rise. If anything, I expect the team to lean more and more heavily on Robinson going forward. Allgeier will have a role, but he's not scoring two touchdowns every game. He's a solid RB3, but I doubt we see a week like this again.

I also don't think Allgeier keeps being the one with all the goal-line carries. Bijan's going to get some more of those going forward.

Verdict: Fiction

Puka Nacua - WR, Los Angeles Rams

Week 1 stats: 10 catches, 15 targets, 119 yards - overall WR9

With Cooper Kupp on the Injured Reserve, most people thought Van Jefferson would take over as the Rams' No. 1 receiver. Instead, it was rookie Puka Nacua who played a huge role in Sunday's win over the Seahawks.

Nacua, in his first NFL action, was targeted 15 times. It's almost unheard of for a player to see that level of usage in his NFL debut.

I mean...Keke Coutee aside, being up there with Terry Glenn and Julian Edelman is a good sign.

But the historical precedent aside, the main reason I think Nacua is a great play going forward is that the Rams' passing game doesn't have a lot of other options. Kupp's out for at least three more games. Jefferson and Tyler Higbee combined for eight targets, almost half of what Nacua saw on his own.

He's got Matthew Stafford's trust, and he impressed with the targets he saw. A versatile player -- he had five rushing and five receiving touchdowns at BYU last year -- Nacua is going to continue to be productive. He won't be a WR1 every week, but he can be a strong flex option.

Verdict: Fact

Zach Ertz - TE, Arizona Cardinals

Week 1 stats: six receptions, 10 targets, 21 yards - overall TE18

Alright, this one gets a little weird, so bear with me.

Tight end is always a difficult position in fantasy because it's a spot where the talent dries up really fast. That can lead to some surprises every week in the lower half of the TE1. This week, for example, Hunter Henry was the overall TE1.

But I don't want to talk about a player who finished as a top-12 tight end. I actually want to talk about someone who was only TE18 in half PPR this week. The production wasn't really there for Zach Ertz, just like it wasn't really expected to be there.

So why talk about him? Because the opportunities were there, as Ertz led all tight ends in targets in Week 1. He was the only tight end to see double-digit targets.

With Joshua Dobbs under center, I expect to see Ertz continue to rack up targets. Dobbs had the sixth-lowest average completed air yards this week. Ertz was the only Cardinals player with more than five targets and he was on the field for 77% of the team's snaps.

I really don't know if the actual yardage total goes up or if Ertz gets much end zone usage. But as long as he stays healthy, I expect he'll get targets.

Verdict: Fact (the targets being up, at least -- the fantasy scoring could still be pretty low)

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