FAB Bidding - Week 6 Waiver Wire Targets

October 14, 2020

Nick Mariano's Week 6 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

Crack that piggybank and recruit some reinforcements! Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

The injuries were lighter in Week 5, but losing the NE/DEN contest surely tilted many a roster. With four teams on bye for Week 6 -- SEA, LAC, NO, LV -- having depth is more important than ever. Don't shy away from the "boring" add to plug in. Here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 6, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

21% rostered

The Dolphins will want to see Tua Tagovailoa in action eventually, but Fitzmagic season is in full effect. The Harvard alum wisely targeted San Francisco’s practice-squad DB Brian Allen often in Week 5, resulting in 350 yards and three scores in a blowout of the reigning NFC champs. And now he gets a green-light matchup with the Jets in Week 6, meaning Fitzpatrick and the Miami offense are solid plays once again. I recognize the 49ers were broken, but Fitz ranks top-five in aggression per NFL's Next Gen Stats and that will play in fantasy.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

32% rostered

Cousins went 27-of-39 on throws for 249 yards and two touchdowns with an interception (and fumble lost) in Week 5. It wasn’t impressive as the Vikings ran all over the Seahawks, even once Dalvin Cook left with a groin injury. The 39 pass attempts blew away his previous season-high mark of 27 and may foreshadow Week 6’s date with a vulnerable Atlanta defense. Especially as Kirk was just one of five qualified QBs with an intended-air-yards mark of 10 or more entering Week 5.

The Falcons just got DJ Moore right and should offer little opposition to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, but even a limited Cook or his backups could gash ATL. Perhaps they’ll be stiffer in hopes of proving that now-ousted Dan Quinn was the problem and not them. Cousins is a viable streamer for those seeking 18-20 points.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

40% rostered

I’ll mention Mattison even though his rostered rate is slightly above the usual threshold. Dalvin Cook left Sunday night’s game with a groin injury and is receiving an MRI on Monday, which left Mattison in a smash spot against Seattle that yielded 136 total yards.

While he was momentarily banged up and Mike Boone also ran well, that highlights how all three RBs are talented and that Seattle’s D is in rough shape. If Mattison is the starter next week against Atlanta then you’ll want him plugged in. The Vikings have a bye in Week 7 and may elect to give Cook rest through then. Plus, you get all sorts of Hamilton-themed smack talk to drop:

Alexander Mattison
My name is Alexander Mattison
There’s a thousand yards I haven’t run
But just you wait
Just you wait ...

— Zak Hanshew (@ZaktheMonster) October 12, 2020

Jamaal Williams (RB, GB) - FAB Bid: 3-6%

15% rostered

While Williams is a running back, he’s needed as a receiver right now given Green Bay’s injuries.  The Packers have little depth beyond Davante Adams, who is presumed back for Week 6, with an inconsistent Marquez Valdes-Scantling and upstart Robert Tonyan blossoming at tight end. This left Williams with an 8-95-0 receiving line alongside a poor 8-10-0 rushing line for Week 4. They won’t grind Aaron Jones into the ground, leaving Williams able to benefit from a vengeful Aaron Rodgers who is out to prove he’s still a king in today’s NFL.

*There simply aren’t many low-owned RBs that are ready to help in Week 6. If you need a running back on the roster then go after the insurance-policy backs such as Tony Pollard (what Mattison was) and hope to hit it big moving forward. I'm not here to conjure up names just to squeeze into a column -- if they aren't worth your FAB, I won't force it.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Chase Claypool (WR, PIT) - FAB Bid: 20-25%

14% rostered

Claypool erupted for four total touchdowns on Sunday, catching seven passes for 110 yards and three TDs while adding a two-yard TD rush for fun. He rallied for PIT once Diontae Johnson left with a back issue, which tacks on to his recent concussion and a toe injury to give him a frightful list of woes to overcome. Monitor Johnson's injury reports as the week progresses but Pittsburgh may not put this genie back in the bottle. If you have to make one add this week, it's Claypool.

What a day for @ChaseClaypool‼️ pic.twitter.com/FiIeZqO6jM

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 12, 2020

Preston Williams (WR, MIA) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

22% rostered

Whew, about time! We knew we just had to wait for a matchup with San Francisco to get Williams right, right? He was the main beneficiary of the aforementioned Brian Allen matchup, securing 106 yards with a 32-yard touchdown mixed in on his four catches. The lower volume remains concerning, but this should keep him above Isaiah Ford on the depth chart. Miami won’t explode for 43 points often, but facing the Broncos in Week 6 should offer another opportunity to roll.

Travis Fulgham (WR, PHI) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

3% rostered

Fulgham showed that last week’s 2-57-1 line wasn’t a flash-in-the-pan scenario, as he dominated Pittsburgh’s defense for 10 catches, 152 yards, and a score on 13 targets. He and Greg Ward both did well with Philly trailing often (yet Zach Ertz still stunk). Philly will eventually return Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert, so don’t get attached to double-digit targets. 

Tyler Johnson (WR, TB) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

0% rostered

The good news is that Johnson logged 61 yards on four receptions (six targets) in his first real taste of NFL action. The bad news is that it took injuries to Chris Godwin and Justin Watson, as well as Mike Evans and Scotty Miller being dinged up, to get Johnson there. It's hard to see those stars aligning yet again for Week 6's home date with the Packers, but it's not impossible. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack will surely push Tom Brady and the Bucs to action, and if Johnson is running in three-wide sets then you have a solid dart throw on your hands.

Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 3-6%

8% rostered

Zaccheaus only managed a 13-yard catch in Week 5 after dropping that 8-86-0 line in Week 4. It was a disappointing follow-up, but it's promising that he stayed on the field and remained in the rotation with Julio Jones out. Russell Gage only had a 2-16-0 line as well, so it's not like Zaccheaus was the only one left out. And it's not like he was out there to run block:

Olamide Zaccheaus yesterday:

* 39 routes on 39 Matt Ryan dropbacks
* Wide 57 snaps, slot 6
* 4 targets for a 10% share
* 1-13-0 line

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 12, 2020

Other WRs of Note:

• Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAX, 34%) 4-5% - Two strong weeks in a row, targets trending up.
• Christian Kirk (ARI, 34%) 4-5% - Season-high 7 tgts, 78 yds, DAL & SEA matchups coming.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB, 33%) 3-4% - Still No. 2 WR for Rodgers, that has value.
  
• N'Keal Harry (NE, 32%) 3-4% - Harry with 28 tgts thru 4 games, getting Cam back?
• Cole Beasley (BUF, 29%) 2-3% - BUF throwing a ton, he’ll be needed against KC in Wk. 6.
• Scotty Miller (TB, 29%) 2-3% - Goose egg hurt, but still a solid play if Godwin’s out.
• Alshon Jeffery (PHI, 18%) 1-2% - Don’t forget about him, PHI is about to get crowded.
• James Washington (PIT, 9%) 1-2% - Claypool draws spotlight, but JW viable if Diontae out.
• Breshad Perriman (NYJ, 8%) 3-4% - Take Jeff Smith’s targets and give them to Perriman.
• Darnell Mooney (CHI, 1%) 3-4% - Drew more tgts than Miller again, Foles missed open TD.
• Nelson Agholor (LV, 2%) 1-2% - 3 TDs is great, only 11 tgts is not. Ted Ginn-ish at best.
• Gabriel Davis (BUF, 2%) 2-3% - Unreliable w/ both Diggs and Brown healthy.
• Cedrick Wilson (DAL, 2%) 0-1% - DAL defense may require lots of passing, Dalton will do.
• Demarcus Robinson (KC, 0%) 0-1% - May step into potent offense if Watkins misses time.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Darren Fells (TE, HOU) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

2% rostered

Fells found open space (read: busted coverage) for a 44-yard TD to fuel a 2-57-1 line on the day, enough for a top-3 TE week in half-PPR formats. He's TD-dependent and has only seen more than two targets in a game once so far, but we're all hoping Week 5's 30-14 victory signals a renaissance for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense. Tennessee's defense offers stiffer competition than Jacksonville next week, but not by much. The Titans have quietly allowed opposing TEs to find paydirt in each of their first three games this season.

Gerald Everett (TE, LAR) - FAB Bid: 1-2% 

1% rostered

Everett caught all four of his targets for 90 yards against Washington while Tyler Higbee only had two catches/targets for 12 yards. It’s fair to question the hierarchy, especially after Higbee popped in the second half of 2019 after an injury sidelined Everett. Regardless, it's much closer to even than most people would think:

Rams TE routes over the last three weeks:

Tyler Higbee — 48
Gerald Everett — 34

Targets:

Higbee — 8
Everett — 6

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 12, 2020

His ceiling is certainly the highest of these players, but he did just face Washington...so. Week 6's date at San Francisco should require more firepower as the Niners hope to rebound from embarrassment. Mike Gesicki just hung 91 yards on SF so perhaps Everett can replicate his 90-yard day there.

Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

6% rostered

Big Irv established season-high marks with four catches on five targets for 64 yards against Seattle, building momentum for a date with Atlanta’s beleaguered defense in Week 6. Kyle Rudolph has averaged two targets through five games and isn’t ramping up, so we hope this is a sign that Smith is getting more involved. I'm tempering expectations and you may not want to hold him through Minnesota's Week 7 bye, but do note the recent upward trend here.

Cameron Brate (TE, TB) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

2% rostered

Brate answered the Week 5 call with five receptions for 44 yards on six targets, offering a midrange safety blanket for Tom Brady with O.J. Howard out. Rob Gronkowski topped 50 yards himself but didn’t look terribly graceful on his feet. Neither has a high ceiling these days, but the Bucs receiving corps is battered and needs both TEs to complement Mike Evans. If you simply need a solid 30-40 yards with decent red-zone usage then Brate fits the bill.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Miami Dolphins Defense (vs. NYJ) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

2% rostered

I realize the Dolphins typically elicit giggles, but they just bounced Jimmy Garoppolo after one half of play and now face the Jets. With confidence in their sails, Miami will look to build on Week 5’s five-sack, three-turnover performance against a reeling Jets team. Tack on that it’s a home matchup for Miami and you’ve got a good recipe to serve up on Sunday. Even as the Jets ease Le'Veon Bell and potentially Breshad Perriman back in, they are not to be feared. They simply get put into holes early and often, which leaves them taking risks and making mistakes for the majority of the game.

Minnesota Vikings Defense (vs. ATL) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

29% rostered

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have looked lost lately, which is exactly what the Vikings defense needs to see. While they just posted a season-high four sacks against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, the Vikes’ D has struggled on the whole. They’ve surrendered at least 23 points in each game thus far, but have faced the likes of Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. If you can’t scoop Miami then take a look at Minny, who open as 3.5-point favorites per Vegas sportsbooks.

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