FAB Bidding - Week 5 Waiver Wire Targets

October 6, 2020

Nick Mariano's Week 5 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

It's time to break out the wallets! Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

We weathered another injury-laden week, with Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler headlining the medical tent. We also saw Julio Jones leave MNF early and Davante Adams unable to suit up. With Detroit and Green Bay on bye for Week 5, we must now start covering for those absences as well. Here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 5, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

16% rostered

Herbert pushed Tom Brady to one of his final forms in a tough loss on Sunday, throwing for 290 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He did so without Mike Williams and largely without Austin Ekeler, who was carted off in the first quarter. Instead, it was Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson and Donald Parham Jr. scoring the TDs, all three of which were solid throws by Herbert.

The Chargers have lost their last three games by one score each, but it may unreasonably lead to Tyrod Taylor being reinstalled when healthy. For now, roster Herbert and be ready for him to do more himself without Ekeler in the backfield.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

19% rostered

Bridgewater and the Panthers are winning without Christian McCaffrey -- not to be confused with “being better without CMC.” You brutes.  Teddy B. tossed 276 yards with two scores and one INT, also scampering for 32 yards and another TD. With a confidence-building game in his back pocket, Bridgewater treads on top-12 territory for Week 5 thanks to a road date against Atlanta. The Falcons are allowing a league-worst 39.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and that's before they face Aaron Rodgers.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Damien Harris (RB, NE) - FAB Bid: 25-30%

26% rostered

Harris came off the IR and wowed with 100 yards on 17 carries, which came despite poor quarterback play. Kansas City could creep in a bit, yet Harris still found the holes and converted on his opportunities. It would’ve been nice to see some receiving work but you’ll take the outstanding results as is.

Damien Harris

Patriots to rush for ≥ 100 yards in a game, in their first 3 career games, in the last 30 years

Damien Harris
Sony Michel
Curtis Martin

— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) October 6, 2020

The offense will open up when Cam Newton returns though Rex Burkhead and James White will remain heavily involved. If Cam can return for a Week 5 date against a beleaguered Broncos team then I’d expect a positive gamescript for this rushing attack to thrive.

Chase Edmonds (RB, ARZ) - FAB Bid: 20-25%

34% rostered

While Kenyan Drake’s fourth-quarter chest injury turned out to be nothing, fantasy teams will want to scoop Edmonds now. Forget injury, it’s the performance that’s fading Drake in season-long leagues. More than an insurance policy, Edmonds notched 40 total yards and a touchdown on nine touches. Five of those were receptions for those of you in PPR formats.

The NFL has run all over the fourth-worst run defense in Carolina but Drake was bottled up, though I will say some of that lies on the playcalling. A toss play at the goal line against a weaker rush D like Carolina seems...odd. Drake has two more shots to earn fantasy goodwill against the Jets and Cowboys next, but Edmonds should eat into the work and both could score in each matchup.

Justin Jackson (RB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 20-25%

6% rostered

Austin Ekeler is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a hamstring injury and Joshua Kelley fumbled in his stead, so perhaps Jackson can step in for fantasy teams. Now Kelley should remain the “1A” but LAC needs a 1B in the backfield, especially with Justin Herbert’s baptism by fire. Jackson missed time with a quad injury and hasn’t done anything in very limited work thus far, but owns a 4.8 yards per carry mark with a reliable 81.3% catch rate. He has a better ceiling than D’Ernest Johnson, as he can step above Kelley with a hot hand.

D'Ernest Johnson (RB, CLE) - FAB Bid: 15-20%

1% rostered

While Nick Chubb’s injury vaults Kareem Hunt into the top-10, Johnson also leaps in value. Cleveland has two stellar receivers, but this team’s identity goes through its RB stable. Johnson gashed Dallas for 95 yards on 13 carries after Chubb went down, though that also speaks to the Cowboys’ woes. Don’t expect a ton from Johnson in Week 5 against a stout Indianapolis front but do scoop him for the interim with Chubb on the IR.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB, TB) - FAB Bid: 5-8%

6% rostered

Vaughn was pressed into action with Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, and Kenjon Barner injured, which allowed him to log his first NFL touchdown. He only gained four yards on three carries, but 22 yards and the score on two receptions will play in PPR formats. If the injuries prove lengthy for those RBs then Tampa will have to trust Vaughn with some looks, but availability is the greatest skill. Let’s see if Tampa goes to Chicago with Vaughn as their No. 2 RB, in which case he’s worth a desperation dart.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Scotty Miller (WR, TB) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

16% rostered

Scotty does know. After a letdown in Week 2, Miller has gone for 83 yards in consecutive games and scored his first touchdown in Week 4. Chris Godwin doesn't seem ready to return yet and O.J. Howard left with a possible Achilles injury, so Miller seems assured of a high target share, especially if Mike Evans' ankle bothers him beyond this weekend. The defense looks good at times but won’t carry this team to victories, let alone the penalties/discipline problems. Miller will be needed and neither Tyler Johnson nor Justin Watson appears effective yet.

Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

33% rostered

Higgins looks like the No. 2 WR behind Tyler Boyd and his gameplay has left Cincinnati able to scratch John Ross in two straight games. A.J. Green continues to look like a shadow of his former self and a Week 5 date with the Ravens isn’t likely to fix that. Higgins has seen at least six targets in each of the last three games, turning those 22 targets into 12 catches for 152 yards and two scores. The efficiency should rise as the chemistry grows, but Cincy’s scuffling ways leave them frequently in need of big chunks. Invest in their future here with Higgins on the rise.

Teammate Week 4 Target Shares:

Robby Anderson, 31%
DJ Moore, 17%

Tyler Boyd, 23%
Tee Higgins, 20%
A.J. Green, 14%

Amari Cooper, 28%
CeeDee Lamb, 12%
Michael Gallup, 9%

Cooper Kupp, 22%
Robert Woods, 22%

Tim Patrick, 25%
Jerry Jeudy, 14%

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 5, 2020

Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

1% rostered

Patrick led Denver with seven targets, six catches and 113 yards with a touchdown in their 37-28 victory over the Jets. He stepped up next to Jerry Jeudy with injuries to K.J. Hamler (hamstring and Noah Fant (ankle). It was impressive but expectations must be tempered given the Broncos are limping into Foxborough where New England’s solid defense should give them fits. Hope for volume here and see if he can gain momentum for Week 6 against Miami.

Christian Kirk (WR, ARZ) - FAB Bid: 5-8%

33% rostered

Arizona’s offense is capable of more and perhaps getting a healthy Kirk back will help unlock the ceiling. He caught three of his five targets for 19 yards and a short touchdown, but that’s on a day where DeAndre Hopkins led all receivers with 41 yards. Andy Isabella was pushed behind Larry Fitzgerald on the totem pole, but it’s possible all non-Hopkins WRs cannibalize each other into fantasy irrelevance. But Kirk has the best shot at reclaiming the No. 2 spot and that ceiling with a Kyler Murray-led offense is worth a flier.

Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 3-6%

2% rostered

Zaccheaus stepped up for Matt Ryan and Atlanta with Julio Jones banged up. Given how Atlanta appears contractually obligated to be either playing from behind or engaged in shootouts, you want to invest in their receivers. Jones was seen limping off after the first half and would not return for the second, so let’s see if Atlanta takes out frustration on Carolina’s lesser defense at home in Week 5. Given Calvin Ridley isn’t 100% and Russell Gage recently had a concussion, Zaccheaus could elevate beyond No. 3 as well.

Other WRs of Note:
Tre'Quan Smith (NO, 27%) 2-3% - Should be volatile flex at best assuming MT returns.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAX, 24%) 4-5% - 91 yards on six touches should lead to more.
Curtis Samuel (CAR, 22%) 1-2% - Facing Falcons may lead to a shootout if desperate.
Greg Ward (PHI, 19%) 3-4% - Led PHI in targets again but PIT & BAL next cap ceiling.
Cole Beasley (BUF, 25%) 2-3% - BUF throwing a ton, Beasley a clutch PPR asset.
Breshad Perriman (NYJ, 8%) 3-4% - Reportedly targeting Week 5 return.
Randall Cobb (HOU, 6%) 2-3% - Still 3rd option, but Watson’s 3rd is a decent dart throw.
Zach Pascal (IND, 4%) 2-3% - Pascal led IND WRs in Week 4 but they don’t need to throw.
David Moore (SEA, 1%) 1-2% - Folks will chase long plays, but <5 tgts in each game.
Darnell Mooney (CHI, 1%) 3-4% - May have leaped Miller to be No. 2, but it’s still CHI.
Isaiah Ford (MIA, 1%) 1-2% - Saw 10 looks, but still under 50 yards for it.
Jeff Smith (NYJ, 0%) 0-1% - 7-81-0 is great, but NYJ WRs returning sap optimism.
Gabriel Davis (BUF, 2%) 2-3% - Unreliable w/ both Diggs and Brown healthy.
Cedrick Wilson (DAL, 0%) 0-1% - DAL unlikely to need shootout offense this often.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan (TE, GB) - FAB Bid: 6-10%

25% rostered

I’d wanted Tonyan to do well but dang, a hat trick of TDs makes the FAB war a gritty one. Hopefully, Green Bay going on bye in Week 5 will pour some water on the fire, as Tonyan’s now scored in three straight games. The Packers haven’t featured a TE since Jermichael Finley but we must note the WR corps was down Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.

That's Robert Tonyan's third touchdown catch of the season. He's the first Packers TE with a TD in three straight games since Jermichael Finley (2011-12) and he's the only TE in the NFL with a TD in three straight games this season. https://t.co/URW5dzevtf

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) October 6, 2020

We may see a double-digit TD campaign here for “Little Kittle” as he earns the trust of Aaron Rodgers. Given the state of TE in 2020, he’s a must-add with weekly top-12 potential thanks to the relatively-low bar at the position and Rodgers.

Mo Alie-Cox (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

33% rostered

Alie-Cox saw two targets in Week 4 with Jack Doyle and Trey Burton active, but he still hauled in a 13-yard TD. He’s hit paydirt or topped 100 yards in each of his last three games, but a stocked TE stable will limit his upside. At 6’6” with good hands, MAC should remain a strong red-zone option for Philip Rivers a la Antonio Gates. And Indy now faces the Browns, who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs.

Drew Sample (TE, CIN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

3% rostered

Sample was the victim of a great play by Myles Jack, who ripped a touchdown catch out of Sample’s hands for an interception. The Bengals are rarely going to have a game in hand enough to abandon the passing game, and Sample now has 15 targets in three games since C.J. Uzomah went down. If you’re throwing darts at TE, give Sample a long look beyond Week 5’s tough Baltimore matchup.

Cameron Brate (TE, TB) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

0% rostered

Brate had been pushed to No. 3 on the TE depth chart when Tampa brought in Rob Gronkowski, but he reminded us of the TD potential with a three-yard score. Combine that with O.J. Howard’s likely season-ending Achilles injury and we should now see Brate and Gronk both have top-12 weeks throughout the season. Especially with Mike Evans at less than 100% and Chris Godwin still out, Tom Brady and the Bucs will need reliable receiving options. Week 5’s date with Chicago may not force their hand, but Week 6 against Green Bay should call for action.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Arizona Cardinals Defense (at NYJ) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

50% rostered

It’s against the Jets, but also at Metlife so it’s possible every player gets hurt. While streaming against the Jets didn’t yield big profits in Week 4, the Cards are a bit more put together than the Broncos. If nothing else, Arizona’s offense should be able to put Sam Darnold and the Jets in a hole for risky throws in the second half. Early Vegas lines have Arizona as 6.5-point road favorites -- a solid endorsement. If you need a quick pivot in Week 5 then targeting the Jets remains a solid play.

Dallas Cowboys Defense (vs NYG) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

25% rostered

This isn’t about the Cowboys defense, but the Giants. You know this. Vegas opened with Dallas as 11-point favorites at home, though bettors have brought that down to 9.5 after early action. The Giants have mustered nine points in each of their last two games and have a season-high mark of 16. Without Saquon Barkley to fall back on, the Giants are overwhelmed -- Jones’ 2:5 TD:INT ratio is the worst of regular starters and he’s also lost two fumbles. The 137 rush yards are cool, but nowhere near enough to make him one to fear.

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