FAB Bidding - Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

September 29, 2020

Nick Mariano's Week 4 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

It's time for our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, the column that focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

This week's action hasn't yielded many high-priority targets to chase, so let your team needs dictate action. That should be the motto each week, but I'll specifically mention it here because I know many can have an itchy transaction finger. Feeling like you must make a move. Do what betters your chances, that's it. Here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 4, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

7% rostered

Fitzpatrick struggled against New England in Week 1 but has ripped off two “Fitzmagic” games in a row entering a strong matchup against Seattle. After completing 31-of-47 passes for 328 yards and two TDs against Buffalo, he toyed with the Jags by completing 18-of-20 passes for 160 yards and another two scores.

Mr. 305 ?

Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 90% of his passes last night (18-of-20), breaking our all-time record for completion percentage in a game (minimum of 20 attempts). pic.twitter.com/5FnkxIWhqj

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 25, 2020

He added 38 rush yards and another TD on the ground, giving him two consecutive top-12 weeks. You know you're playing with fire here, but sometimes you simply need to aim high with no regard for the floor.

Derek Carr (QB, LV) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

19% rostered

Carr has quietly gone without an interception through three games and will need to show up on Sunday against a stellar Bills squad. Ditto in Week 5 against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, but I’m not a fan of visiting QBs going there (even with reduced crowds). He’s making do with a depleted WR corps, leaning into Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller as he did in 2019. I don't love it but I recognize that some simply need to lock in a decent, if not boring, range of outcomes.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Carlos Hyde (RB, SEA) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

18% rostered

It appears Chris Carson has escaped a major knee injury after getting “Gator Rolled” by Cowboys Trysten Hill late on Sunday, but a minor knee sprain could keep him from Week 4. Hyde hasn’t been great (16-57-1 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving) thus far but is better suited for heavy workloads compared to Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas. And Seattle may just #LetRussCook even more without Carson, but them facing Miami in Week 4 means Hyde could see a TD or two throughout the second half of a dominated game. Personally, I don't see why the Seahawks would risk Carson against the Dolphins.

Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

22% rostered

Here’s another one-week spike that needs to be addressed. Wilson had two touchdowns as the Niners spanked the Giants, with 15 touches alongside Jerick McKinnon’s 17 while Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman sat. It’s rare the stars align for a backup where so many injuries open up a role in a great matchup. If Mostert misses Week 4 against the Eagles then consider Wilson a viable flex play, just don’t watch him handle carries. He only managed 15 yards on 12 totes, proving more valuable as a receiver (3-54-1). That limitation further drives home how mildly to view his long-term prospects.

Rex Burkhead (RB, NE) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

11% rostered

The Patriots steamrolled the Raiders defense with their running backs on Sunday, and Burkhead was the one who found paydirt three times. Don’t chase this game but know that he’s capable of greatness attached to a revitalized Cam Newton. Sony Michel had 140 total yards on just 11 touches, J.J. Taylor looked spry (11-43-0) with additional action and Damien Harris returns soon.

Brian Hill (RB, ATL) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

2% rostered

Poor Atlanta. The silver lining with their Week 3 collapse was seeing Todd Gurley get going (14-80-1) while Hill looked strong as a running mate. He logged 80 total yards of his own on 10 touches (nine carries, one catch) with a TD, though he dropped a critical pass that would’ve extended a drive. I don’t love buying into an ATL timeshare, not when they need to pass so often, but Gurley isn’t a bastion of health and if Hill’s running well then he’s a worthy insurance policy to roster in deep leagues. The same goes for...

Anthony McFarland Jr. (RB, PIT) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

1% rostered

James Conner looked like himself again on Sunday, but Benny Snell Jr. did not. He mustered 11 yards on seven carries, while McFarland stepped up with 49 total yards on seven touches. Follow the tweet for a clip of his snaps:

Anthony McFarland Jr's NFL Debut @AnttMacc_ pic.twitter.com/l0puoYSs5n

— Palmer on Pittsburgh (@talk_pittsburgh) September 27, 2020

One bad game from Snell won’t make him disappear, but PIT obviously drafted McFarland with belief in him and they’ll look towards the future with his development. If you need to choose an insurance policy for Conner then it’s best to go with the hottest hand.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

31% rostered

Stefon Diggs who?? I kid, but Jefferson sure looked the part alongside Adam Thielen in Week 3, dancing his way to a 7-175-1 line on just nine targets. This came after a combined five receptions and 70 yards in his first two games, so don’t kick yourself if he was on the bench. If this gives Kirk Cousins faith to throw it up to JJ, as well as take some pressure off of Thielen, then bully for everyone. The offense still goes through Dalvin Cook, though.

Greg Ward (WR, PHI) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

1% rostered

Ward led the Eagles with 11 targets in Week 3, due in large part to being the last man standing. Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor were out already and both Dallas Goedert and DeSean Jackson left Sunday’s game with injuries, leaving Ward with eight receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown. Facing the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens in his next three games is no treat and lowers his potential, however. Tread lightly.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

28% rostered

Aiyuk was San Francisco’s man out wide, leading the team with eight targets (5-70-0) while adding 31 yards and a touchdown on three rushes. A versatile player, Aiyuk was given ample opportunity to gash an uninterested Giants Defense and make a statement moving forward. He’ll face added competition in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, but is worth an add in the short term while the others get back up to speed.

Brandon Aiyuk Week 3 Highlights:

An absolute PROBLEM ??? pic.twitter.com/84kRBfEXFL

— Aiyuk Fan Account (@Sports4T) September 28, 2020

Zach Pascal (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

4% rostered

It hurts to type this, but Pascal’s four targets were tied for the most among Indy WRs on Sunday. He caught two for 34 yards and should be the No. 2 receiver through the bye after Michael Pittman Jr. required surgery to repair compartment leg syndrome in his calf. As T.Y. Hilton’s fantasy teams are aware, Philip Rivers hasn’t needed his wideouts much, but Parris Campbell’s Week 1 point to Pascal’s slot usage as a plus. The truth is the Jets didn’t push the Colts at all. The worry is that none of the Colts’ next three opponents (CHI, CLE, CIN) fare much better.

Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

5% rostered

Even before kickoff, Higgins received a boost by way of John Ross being inactive. He further advanced his lot by catching 5-of-9 targets for 40 yards and two touchdowns, but there were other issues beyond the box score. He couldn’t secure a deep ball from Joe Burrow in overtime and also stepped out of bounds on a play, causing a penalty when Burrow threw to him. 

These things come with experience and at 0-2-1, the Bengals are surely evaluating their future. The defense won’t keep them in it and Joe Mixon clearly can’t drag them to success. If Burrow will truly spread the ball between Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and A.J. Green, then we’ve got a flex-worthy player thanks to frequent negative gamescripts.

Other WRs of Note:
Preston Williams (MIA, 30% rostered) 4-5% - Facing SEA in Week 4 should call for passing.
Tre'Quan Smith (NO, 30%) 2-3% - Contingent on Michael Thomas’ health, a band-aid add.
Scotty Miller (TB, 16%) 4-5% - If Chris Godwin is hurt, Miller’s value leaps again.
James Washington (PIT, 11%)  2-3% - Diontae Johnson seems okay but monitor his progress.
Andy Isabella (ARI, 1%) 2-3% - Did well w/ Christian Kirk out, but that’s no long-term setup.
Cole Beasley (BUF, 9%) 2-3% - BUF throwing a ton, Beasley a clutch PPR asset.
Hunter Renfrow (LV, 10%) 3-4% - LV will need to keep up with BUF & KC in Weeks 4 & 5.
KJ Hamler (DEN, 12%) 4-5% - DEN WR options limited, Hamler flashes brilliance.
Randall Cobb (HOU, 6%) 2-3% - Still 3rd option, but Watson’s 3rd is a decent dart throw.
Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL, 0%) 0-1% - Sees a boost if Russell Gage is unavailable.
Dontrelle Inman (WAS, 0%) 1-2% - Two TDs will likely force overpay, don’t extend.
Gabriel Davis (BUF, 0%) 2-3% - Monitor John Brown’s calf injury, add Davis just in case.
Braxton Berrios (NYJ, 1%) 3-4% - Berrios has scored a TD in two straight, last healthy NYJ WR.
Kalif Raymond (TEN, 0%) 0-1% - Volatile deep threat w/o A.J. Brown, D-Jax lite.
Cedrick Wilson (DAL, 0%) 0-1% - DAL shouldn’t need 4-WR sets often, strong insurance for any of the other 3.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI) - FAB Bid: 3-4%

9% rostered

Graham caught 6-of-10 targets for 60 yards and two touchdowns to help fuel the (somehow) 3-0 Bears’ epic comeback over the Falcons on Sunday. He began the season with a touchdown and seven targets but then saw one target in Week 2, leaving speculators out in the cold. But this week means we’ve seen more good than bad, and Nick Foles as the starter means more passes and fewer impromptu scrambles.

Logan Thomas (TE, WSH) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

33% rostered

I know, you think I’m crazy by now. Thomas hasn’t topped four catches or 40 receiving yards in any of his three games yet, so why should you care about him? The fact remains that Thomas has seen at least seven targets in each game, totaling 24 targets thus far. That’s tied with Zach Ertz for the third-most in the NFL. The lack of production can be pinned to Dwayne Haskins Jr. and there’s no denying that limitation, but Washington will often be in passing situations playing from behind. With games against the Ravens and Rams coming up, Thomas may push double-digit targets behind Terry McLaurin.

Eric Ebron (TE, PIT) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

27% rostered

Ebron’s Week 3 touchdown was great to see, but feels more a product of Diontae Johnson leaving the game rather than Ebron being a primary gameplan. He’s a good player and we know he’s an excellent red-zone target. However, Pittsburgh’s wideouts and James Conner remain better options. You can stream him in home matchups when Big Ben tends to pop off, but I’d caution against chasing Week 3 with significant FAB $.

Mo Alie-Cox (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

9% rostered

With Jack Doyle (and Trey Burton) out, Alie-Cox once again blossomed in the role of “Philip Rivers’ TE” with a 3-50-1 line. This came after he hung 111 yards on the Vikings in Week 2, introducing his athleticism to many in 2020. He may not turn into Baby Gates here but the injuries to Indy's WR corps may necessitate more 2-TE sets with Alie-Cox and Doyle. Burton will take time to get up to speed and frankly, MAC has shown more than Burton did last year. Keep an eye on practice reports for Doyle but here's a weekly top-12 threat.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams Defense (vs NYG) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

56% rostered

The Rams are getting scooped up pretty quickly thanks to their home date with the reeling Giants, but it’s deserved given the pressure they can put on a quarterback. Danny Dimes has been scampering behind a subpar O-line and the Giants don’t have an offensive identity without Saquon Barkley. I dare LAR to rush only Aaron Donald against a full NYG line and see how long it takes to get a sack. Maybe 10 plays? 

Denver Broncos Defense (at NYJ) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

36% rostered

While I wish the Jets were coming to Denver for an additional defensive advantage, they remain the best offense to stream against. Sam Darnold has no choice but to take risks with few playmakers around him, which led to two pick sixes for Indianapolis in Week 3. Don’t ask questions, just target the Jets.

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