FAB Bidding - Week 13 Waiver Wire Targets

December 2, 2020

Nick Mariano's Week 13 waiver wire FAAB bidding recommendations. How many dollars to spend on fantasy football free agents using FAB (free agent budget) or FAAB.

Week 12 is largely done pending Wednesday's alleged game between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, which means most of you are heading towards your final regular-season FF game. You don't get bonus points for leftover FAB money -- make sure you're in the playoffs! With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

Week 13 sees the Bucs and Panthers hit their bye with three games slated for Monday or Tuesday. With all of that in mind, here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 13, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 3-4%

20% rostered

Fitzpatrick returns with another top-10 week just like that, throwing for 257 yards and two TDs with 10 rush yards on top. He didn’t need to do much -- the Jets only put up three points -- but it’s great to see after Fitz struggled in relief against Denver in Week 11. Tua Tagovailoa’s thumb may hold him out multiple weeks and Fitz is in a great spot for Week 13 against a weak Bengals Defense.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

40% rostered

Cousins threw for 307 yards in a 28-27 win over the Panthers in Week 12, completing 34-of-45 passes (both season-high marks). This gives him multiple TDs in four straight games, with three TDs in three of his last four. His upcoming date with Jacksonville is great on paper but the obvious worry is that the Jags fold and Cousins barely has to throw in the second half. They’ve still got to score in the first place!

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

35% rostered

Simply put, if Jones’ hamstring is okay then this is a great spot for him to build on recent success. If he’s limited or not ready until Week 14’s game against Arizona then you can likely let him sit on waivers if he’s currently there.

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

35% rostered

Mayfield rebounded against the aforementioned woeful Jaguars Defense with 258 yards and two TDs, putting him back on the map after three straight TD-less games. Week 13’s game at Tennessee brings a top-10 QB matchup against a Titans offense that should push the pace and force Baker’s hand. 

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Cam Akers (RB, LAR) - FAB Bid: 40-60%

29% rostered

Akers popped with 84 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries in Week 12, outshining Darrell Henderson Jr. (10 carries, 19 yards) and Malcolm Brown (5 touches, 19 yards). Henderson hasn’t looked right since returning from injury while Akers has looked great with the ball in his hands. We’ve heard coachspeak about him needing to improve without the ball but recent performance trends leave Akers as the 1A heading into Week 13 against Arizona.

Since the Rams started using Cam Akers again in Week 8 (4 games):

Rushes
Darrell Henderson: 33
Cam Akers: 33

Success Rate
Darrell Henderson: 33.3%
Cam Akers: 54.6%

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 30, 2020

Frank Gore (RB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 30-50%

25% rostered

We were told the Jets wouldn’t lean too hard on Gore with La’Mical Perine out, but Adam Gase and company are beyond untrustworthy. Gore proceeded to see 21 touches (18-74-0 rushing, 3-12-0 receiving) while Ty Johnson and Josh Adams combined for just 4 touches. At this point, we have to assume the ageless veteran is good for 15-18 chances with the ball. There’s a low floor with the Jets but all we need is a pass-interference penalty to place the ball at the one for a cheap TD plunge.

Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT) - FAB Bid: 30-50%

34% rostered

You remember Snell, right? The man who tallied 113 yards in Week 1 and made us question everything in Pittsburgh? Well, he has rushed for more than 20 yards in a game since then but he now has his chance.

James Conner has tested positive for COVID-19 and Pittsburgh, whenever they play next, will turn to Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. at running back.  Snell should draw the start in Weeks 12 and 13 as a result, making him a top-30 RB on a Steelers offense that can move the ball. 

Ito Smith (RB, ATL) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

1% rostered

The Falcons are likely to get Todd Gurley II (and Julio Jones) back for Week 13 but Gurley is no bastion of health and Smith looked better than Brian Hill. Smith outgained Hill 75-55 on the day and also punched in a touchdown as the Falcons routed the Raiders. You won’t feel comfortable playing him if Gurley is active, but if the Toddfather is out then Smith would be a solid flex play at home against the Saints.

Devontae Booker (RB, LV) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

9% rostered

Josh Jacobs reportedly has a “chance” to play in Week 13 against the Jets after suffering an ankle injury on Sunday. The Raiders may let him rest for the soft matchup but they’ve also lost two straight and just got embarrassed by Atlanta. If he can’t go then Booker is a versatile fill-in who would have a great chance to exploit NYJ’s inferior linebackers in coverage.

Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET) - 15% - FAB: 1-3% - We expect Swift back but just in case.
Jordan Wilkins (RB, IND) - 17% - FAB: 5-6% - 57 yards on 10 touches in Wk 12 w/o Taylor.
DeAndre Washington (RB, MIA) - 1% - FAB: 1-3% - Most involved RB sans Gaskin.
Royce Freeman (RB, DEN) - 6% - FAB: 2-4% - Phillip Lindsay is hurt, Freeman elevates.
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC) - 20% - FAB: 1-3% - Kelley found paydirt, but only seven touches.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 25-30%

39% rostered

Lazard tallied 23 yards and a touchdown on six targets (four catches) Sunday night, providing solid value even with Green Bay up big throughout the contest. He temporarily left the game after eating a hard shoulder to the chest, but did return and those six targets ranked second on the team behind Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are a top-three offense and Lazard is a starting WR, you do the math.

Allen Lazard got UP! ? pic.twitter.com/w0Tzh3qfqO

— GBP Daily (@GBPdaily) November 30, 2020

Breshad Perriman (WR, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

12% rostered

Perriman and Denzel Mims both enjoyed eight targets in Week 12’s 20-3 loss to Miami, but Perriman outgained Mims 79-67. They’re close, but Perriman has the edge due to the big-play ability in an offense that likely only scores on big, infrequent plays. With three TDs and 234 yards over his last three games -- even with Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold making the throws -- Perriman is on the 12-team radar.

Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) - FAB Bid: 3-6%

3% rostered

Davis played on 60-of-61 snaps in Week 12 with John Brown out, the same as Stefon Diggs and ahead of Cole Beasley’s 53 (85%). It was Beasley who threw a TD pass to Davis in Buffalo’s 27-17 victory and you’ll still feel more comfortable with the slot man’s role compared to Davis, but you’ll take the cheap ticket to Josh Allen’s big arm. A road game against the 49ers in Week 13 should afford Davis plenty of downfield opportunities.

Gabriel Davis was busy in the first game with John Brown on IR:

97% snaps
31 routes on 31 dropbacks
17% target share
Led the team in receiving with 3-79-1

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) November 30, 2020

Isaiah Coulter (WR, HOU) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

0% rostered

With Will Fuller suspended for the rest of 2020 (and the first game of 2021) due to PEDs, Houston’s other wideouts must step up. Keke Coutee may not see his role change much as the short-field slot man, but Coulter (or Kahale Warring!) are interesting candidates to absorb the work. Coulter is 6’2” and has great hands but needs to polish the route-running by most accounts -- but the athleticism he possesses is worth a flier.

Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE) - 11% - FAB: 2-4% - CLE is run-first but starting snaps here.
Keelan Cole Sr. (WR, JAX) - 27% - FAB: 2-4% - Another starter on a struggling pass game.
Josh Reynolds (WR, LAR) - 9% - FAB: 3-5% - Increased usage as LAR works 3 WR more.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - 8% - FAB: 2-3% - Led ATL with 12 targets, good if ATL is underdog.
Denzel Mims (WR, NYJ) - 7% - FAB: 2-3% - 8 targets, 3 catches, 71 yards led NYJ WRs.
Chad Beebe (WR, MIN) - 0% - FAB: 1-2% - We expect Adam Thielen back, but just in case.
Collin Johnson (WR, JAX) - 0% - FAB: 1-2% - A likely blip, JAX WRs a roulette spin.
Keke Coutee (WR, HOU) - 0% - FAB: 2-3% - Suddenly relevant with Fuller out.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Trey Burton (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 4-6%

19% rostered

Burton’s 3-42-1 line was enough to be a top-five TE in Week 13 (half PPR) and now has a TD in two straight games. The red-zone attention from Philip Rivers in a TE-centric Frank Reich offense makes him a strong streamer in 12- and 14-team leagues, especially if Jonathan Taylor misses Week 13 and the ground game is limited.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 4-6%

22% rostered

Schultz only got 24 yards on five catches but remains one of the steadier TEs outside of the upper tier. He’s seen at least five targets in four straight games and has a boring-but-reliable PPR floor as a result. Dallas is scrambling to find an offensive identity without Dak Prescott but Schultz is the clear-cut TE1 without Blake Jarwin active. Unfortunately for us, that alone makes him a fringe top-12 play in any week.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

15% rostered

Rudolph rose with Irv Smith Jr. and Adam Thielen out, catching seven-of-eight targets for 68 yards. All of those are season-high marks and not to be expected as the norm moving forward (unless both players miss Week 13 versus Jacksonville as well).

With Adam Thielen and Irv Smith out plus a trailing game script, Kyle Rudolph saw 8 targets. Most he's seen in a game since December of 2018.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 30, 2020

But the bar at TE is set low these days and Rudolph has topped 60 yards in two of his last three games. He only has one TD on the year as Dalvin Cook takes over the world but there’s no denying the Jags bottom-tier defense is a great matchup.

Jordan Akins (TE, HOU) - FAB Bid: 1-3%

4% rostered

Neither of Houston’s tight ends caught a pass in Week 12 but their outlook changes with Will Fuller’s suspension. Both Akins and Darren Fells have 275 receiving yards on the year but Akins missed Weeks 5-7 and just put up a 5-83-0 line in Week 11. The Texans battle the Colts, Bears, and Colts again in the upcoming weeks so temper expectations, but Houston will be searching for playmakers behind Brandin Cooks.

Tyler Eifert (TE, JAX) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

6% rostered

Eifert hauled in his first TD since Week 2 on Sunday against the Browns, but it only came with 16 yards on three catches. The Mike Glennon-led offense wasn’t going to generate tons of volume and he’s seen 4-5 targets in the last four games as Gardner Minshew II remains out.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. NYG) - 58% rostered - FAB Bid: 8-10%
Minnesota Vikings Defense (vs. JAX) - 52% - FAB Bid: 5-6%
Los Angeles Chargers Defense (vs. NE) - 36% - FAB Bid: 3-5%
Las Vegas Raiders Defense (vs. NYJ) - 9% - FAB Bid: 1-3%
Detroit Lions Defense (at CHI) - 4% - FAB Bid: 1-3%

If the Seahawks are still out there then go get them. They may face a Colt McCoy-led Giants offense in Week 13, the Jets in Week 14, and Washington in Week 15. The Vikings defense only allowed 15 points (13 outside of two PATs off the defensive TDs) in Week 12 and face a hurt Jaguars unit.

Then you’ve got the Chargers taking on a limited Cam Newton, the Raiders drawing a lost Sam Darnold, and the Lions squaring up with Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s poor playcalling.

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