FAB Bidding - Week 11 Waiver Wire Targets

November 18, 2020

Nick Mariano's Week 11 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

With 10 weeks down, many are heading towards the home stretch of our fantasy football regular season. Are you in must-win territory? You'd rather be in the playoffs with $0 than out of the dance entirely! With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

Week 11 returns the Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, and Jets while the Bears, Bills, 49ers, and Giants hit their bye. With that in mind, here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 11, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Derek Carr (QB, LV) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

37% rostered

Carr will be indoors at home against a Chiefs team that will necessitate lots of passing and who yielded Carr’s best game of 2020 so far. He went into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs in Week 5 but hasn’t topped 170 yards passing in any of his last three games. It’s not ideal but the script is set up well for Carr in Week 11, and then you’re looking at Week 12 at Atlanta and Week 13 at the Jets.

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE) - 34% rostered - FAB Bid: 1-2%

Mayfield didn’t do much with the insane weather that slammed Cleveland on Sunday, but Week 11 against Philly and Week 12 at Jacksonville should provide streaming viability. We’ve yet to see him get into a groove with Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper and he’s at risk of ceding the majority of scoring to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but the matchups are decent and worth a look in deeper leagues.

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

30% rostered

After battling a horrid early schedule and the loss of weapons around him, Jones has shown aggression on the ground and flashed that top-10 upside of late. It’s Big Blue’s bye week so he’ll probably remain available if he’s still there, but stellar matchups at Cincinnati and Seattle await in Weeks 12 and 13.

Jameis Winston (QB, NO) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

2% rostered

Winston is now commanding the Saints with reports that Drew Brees has multiple broken ribs and a collapsed lung to deal with. No firm recovery timeline has been presented yet but we just need to know that Winston gets a home date against the Falcons this week. We can move from there later. Here is the initial timeline being floated around:

Source on Brees says the most optimistic recovery time would be 2-3 weeks. Emphasis on "optimistic." Will depend on healing time, which varies by patient, and when they're convinced he can take a hit without risk of serious re-injury. There is hope he's back in time for playoffs.

— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) November 16, 2020

This isn’t the slinging Buccaneer Winston as New Orleans is more capable of managing the game with defense and an elite RB in Alvin Kamara, but he still completed 6-of-10 passes for 63 yards in the second half. The big worry is Taysom Hill vulturing key red-zone looks, so temper expectations and hope Atlanta pushes the game to a shootout.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Kalen Ballage (RB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 20-30%

19% rostered

Ballage was LAC’s workhorse in Week 10 with Justin Jackson on the IR and Troymaine Pope registering zero touches. Joshua Kelley sprinkled in 21 yards on seven touches, playing a clear second fiddle to Ballage’s 102 total yards on 23 touches. There was some revenge narrative for Ballage against Miami and he’ll get a chance to build on that with a green matchup against the Jets in Week 11. With the ability to handle 15-18 totes and run plenty of routes, Ballage is an RB2 in the short-term.

La'Mical Perine (RB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 8-12%

25% rostered

The Jets will reportedly feature Perine throughout the rest of 2020 so they can see what they’ve got in him. That doesn’t mean Frank Gore disappears and we may still see him in those valuable short-yardage/goal-to-go situations. But for now, it appears we should brace for Perine getting 12-15 touches down the stretch. That means something, even on the Jets. Those treading water should always latch onto volume when possible.

Salvon Ahmed (RB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 8-12%

6% rostered

Ahmed rushed 21 times for 85 yards and a touchdown as the clear lead back for Miami in Week 10. With Miami’s defense playing so well, the Dolphins find themselves with leads to guard where they can deploy the rushing game often. If Matt Breida’s hamstring injury clears up in time for Week 11 at Denver then Ahmed’s upside is capped, but Jordan Howard’s release makes it clear they believe in their depth (and likely that Myles Gaskin remains on schedule to return when eligible). If you need a short-term play then make a move but I wouldn't add in hopes of a bellcow come playoff time. Then again, he's proven he could do it...

Salvon Ahmed saw 84% of Miami's running back rushes today. Myles Gaskin's season high in running back rush share is 81.8%.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 16, 2020

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

36% rostered

Edwards quietly put up 73 yards in the Sunday night slopfest against New England, outperforming both Mark Ingram II and J.K. Dobbins. This will likely be a maddening committee from here on out pending injury but Edwards looks like the best runner at the moment. If he’s a TD-dependent 1A committee chair then that has some flex value in 14-teamers.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard (42% rostered) and Sammy Watkins (38%) should return as the No. 2 WRs in high-powered offenses. I'd be comfortable putting 20-25% on Lazard and roughly 5-6% on Watkins if available. Alas, they're rostered in many leagues already so let's see who else is widely available.

Breshad Perriman (WR, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

8% rostered

Those on auto-pilot and only analyzing Week 10 stats when viewing waivers will miss out on Perriman, who had his bye week following a breakout 5-101-2 performance against the Patriots in Week 9. Denzel Mims is a deeper option after receiving a team-high eight targets himself (4-62-0) as the Jets audition their youth for future seasons. Perriman was a playmaker down the stretch for Tampa last year and has big-play ability when healthy, so let's see if Flacco's arm can hit him over the top once again versus LAC. Facing Casey Hayward Jr. isn't ideal but it's a good test, and a good opportunity for Mims as well.

Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

26% rostered

Reagor's four catches for 47 yards was disappointing in a vacuum, but the yards paced all Philly wideouts as he outworked Travis Fulgham and Alshon Jeffery only played 27% of snaps. Reagor and Fulgham both played 88% of the snaps but Reagor proved more reliable, with Fulgham only recording an eight-yard catch on the day. I don't love the crowd brewing here but Reagor offers potential as Philadelphia's top receiver in any given week. These are the trends you want to follow:

In his second game back from injury, Jalen Reagor...

*Played on a season-high 88 percent of snaps
*Led the Eagles in targets with 7 (also a season-high)
*Led the Eagles in air yards with 96

Up next are the Browns, Seahawks, and Packers.

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 16, 2020

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

10% rostered

Pittman popped off for 101 yards on seven catches on Thursday, rewarding Philip Rivers for the attention even as T.Y. Hilton returned to action. I don't think Rivers and the Colts can support a reliable top-25 option but Pittman is worth top-40 attention and a viable flex play. Perhaps he breaks out in full with a game against Green Bay coming up, with a rematch against the same Titans that he just torched after that.

Keelan Cole Sr. (WR, JAC) - FAB Bid: 4-5%

23% rostered

Cole and the shorthanded Jaguars gave Green Bay a run for their money on Sunday but fell short, even with Cole's two-touchdown day. His 5-47-1 receiving line was further boosted by a return touchdown. Look for that electricity to be needed again in Week 11 against a stingy Pittsburgh defense, which makes him a better PPR add rather than hoping for TDs again. If Laviska Shenault Jr. returns then Cole likely slides back into unplayable territory.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

35% rostered

Thomas notched 66 yards on four catches (six targets) for his second straight game with six looks. It’s modest but that’s notable in the 2020 TE landscape. He runs a healthy amount of routes and faces the Bengals next, who are a bottom-five defense against TEs on a yardage/reception basis. I don't love trusting Washington but Thomas is a weekly top-16 fixture for me given the low bar at the position.

Trey Burton (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

18% rostered

With Jack Doyle still out due to a concussion, we may see Burton step up again with the assumption that Nyheim Hines won’t gobble up so many fantasy points for himself. I can appreciate that no Colt is a steady fantasy option right now, but those covering injuries or byes at TE can do worse than a versatile weapon such as Burton. When in doubt, go with the man who is both a rushing and receiving threat.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 3-4%

16% rostered

Schultz comes off the bye having seen 15 targets over his last two games combined and should get Andy Dalton back rather than the backups brigade. We’re not graded on being efficient or Dallas actually winning games, we just need Schultz to remain involved against Minnesota in Week 11. If the trend holds and he sees 6-8 looks then I'll consider it a win.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Chargers Defense (vs. NYJ) - 42% rostered - FAB Bid: 3-5%
Cleveland Browns Defense (vs. PHI) - 18% - FAB Bid: 2-3%
Cincinnati Bengals Defense (at WAS) - 2% - FAB Bid: 0-1%
Detroit Lions Defense (at CAR) - 10% - FAB Bid: 0-1%

The Chargers get to face Joe Flacco and the Jets, who remain a stellar matchup despite their battle with New England in Week 9. The Browns are an effective unit with Myles Garrett back and Carson Wentz is known for hanging in the pocket for far too long. And then the Bengals and Lions are subpar defenses in good matchups, but they're road matchups so it's desperation only.

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