FAB Bidding - Week 10 Waiver Wire Targets

November 10, 2020

Nick Mariano's Week 10 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

We're now barreling towards Week 10 and that means four weeks remain in the traditional regular season of fantasy football. Are you ready for the fourth quarter? With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

Week 9 saw David Johnson and David Montgomery leave with concussions, a Christian McCaffrey shoulder injury, and a Justin Jackson knee issue, among others. Week 10's byes are heavy, as the Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, and Jets put their feet up. With that in mind, here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 9, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE) - 33% rostered - FAB Bid: 1-2%

Mayfield’s bye week saw him placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list due to close contact, but if he’s cleared by next Sunday then he’ll enjoy a matchup with a Texans Defense that almost lost to Jake Luton. You’ll need to monitor the situation closely but the matchup is worth a preemptive add and you can always pivot later in the week if the window to return gets too narrow. Getting Nick Chubb and Austin Hooper back should help fill out the offense and raise Cleveland’s team total ceiling.

All of Baker Mayfield's 22 straight completions to beat the Cincinnati Bengals (no, we're not counting the spike). pic.twitter.com/KATxvl8SNI

— Cleveland Vs Everyone (@clevsevery1) October 29, 2020

Drew Lock (QB, DEN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

20% rostered

Lock couldn’t make it two epic comebacks in a row, falling a TD short of beating the Falcons in Week 9, but has now thrown five TDs in his last two games with at least 40 pass attempts in each of his last three. Denver can’t rely on the ground game and the defense can’t keep games tight enough to not let Lock loose. He’s gelling with his weapons and should be on the streaming map yet again against Vegas in Week 10.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, ARI) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

24% rostered

Tagovailoa outdueled Kyler Murray in a 34-31 victory in Week 9, where he looked more comfortable than Week 8’s conservative appearance. Hopefully, Preston Williams isn’t out for long as they showed nice chemistry. Tua will face a Chargers Defense that is commonly earning “AFC Falcons” honors thanks to their late collapses, making the Bama alum a viable streamer.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Duke Johnson (RB, HOU) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

15% rostered

David Johnson left Week 9 early with a concussion and Duke Johnson was elevated into starting duties. He turned 20 touches into 73 total yards and a touchdown, though he did lose a fumble. We’ll see if no Bill O’Brien means Johnson is actually entrusted as a starter come Week 10 should Johnson remain out. And if you believe in narratives then Duke will be out to prove his old team wrong in Week 10's matchup with Cleveland.

Pending tonight’s game, Duke Johnson is the RB8 for the week.

That’s a higher finish than Texans starter David Johnson has had all season.

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 10, 2020

Kalen Ballage (RB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 8-12%

1% rostered

Justin Jackson was quickly announced as questionable to return with a knee injury on Sunday. We’re looking at Austin Ekeler’s eventual return but it was promising for Ballage that Joshua Kelley didn’t receive additional work with Jackson out. Instead, it was Ballage jumping into the work that Jackson (and Troymaine Pope) did last week, rushing for 69 yards and a score on 15 carries with two catches for 15 yards on top. That top-10 RB week should inspire confidence from LAC moving forward, making him a potential flex play at Miami next week.

Ryan Nall (RB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 6-10%

0% rostered

Nall stepped in after David Montgomery left Week 9 due to a concussion and caught all four of his targets for 34 yards and a TD. The Bears were down when Montgomery got hurt so Nall wasn’t called on for rushing -- in fact, he hasn’t recorded a single carry all year. The only player with more than one rush for the Bears that isn’t Montgomery or Tarik Cohen is Cordarrelle Patterson, who has 26. Chicago should get creative with him but Nall should receive plenty of work if Montgomery isn’t cleared for Monday Night Football against the Vikings. The late game does leave few hedges available should Montgomery play, though.

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL) - 35% rostered - FAB: 6-8% - Outgained Zeke, ramping usage up in recent weeks.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR) - 30% - FAB: 6-8% - Looked good in Wk 8, is Henderson 100%?
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - 37% - FAB: 4-5% - 3 straight games with a TD.
Salvon Ahmed (RB, MIA) - 0% - FAB: 4-5% - Highest ceiling if Matt Breida out for Wk 10.
Jordan Howard (RB, MIA) - 36% - FAB: 4-5% - Low ceiling, TD-dependent if Breida’s out.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG) - 25% - FAB: 4-5% - Freeman returning, low-ceiling committee.
J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS) - 24% - FAB: 3-4% - Solid PPR asset, WSH often needs to pass.
Devontae Booker (RB, LV) - 1% - FAB: 1-2% - Effectively spelling Jacobs, keep in mind.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

24% rostered

Nothing’s changed since last week thanks to Philadelphia’s bye week. The first quarter saw Reagor hit the endzone in a soft game against Dallas, which highlights how the NFC East is a punching bag. and Reagor/Travis Fulgham are a fantastic duo. Dallas Goedert will get his as he works back into the fold and Alshon Jeffery/Zach Ertz will come back, but Reagor will be a key part of this offense throughout 2020 no matter who suits up.

Allen Lazard (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

38% rostered

Lazard is expected to return from the injured reserve for Week 10 after requiring core muscle surgery back in early October. Despite playing in just three games, Lazard’s 254 receiving yards and still fourth on the team through eight games. He’s sorely missed behind Davante Adams as Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only caught 18-of-39 targets thus far. Lazard is a must-roster in all leagues with how well Aaron Rodgers has been playing in 2020.

Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

29% rostered

Samuel’s hot streak continued even with Christian McCaffrey’s return, with Samuel racking up 118 yards and a TD on 12 touches. It’s clear that he’s ahead of DJ Moore in the pecking order for opportunity and that Carolina is dedicated to creatively generating looks for him. Yet Moore still led the Panthers WRs with 81 snaps versus Robby Anderson’s 69 and Samuel’s 60. The Panthers get a chance to avenge their Week 2 loss to Tampa next, with the Bucs defense reeling after a SNF shellacking by the Saints.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

13% rostered

Meyers put on a clinic against the Jets on Monday night, catching 12-of-14 targets for 169 yards to pace the Pats. He constantly found holes in the coverage and Cam Newton appropriately peppered the birthday boy. He's thrived with Julian Edelman out and is the clear No. 2 WR there when Edelman returns, offering a higher ceiling with his perimeter routes. Cam's deep ball is rough but just look at this trend:

Jakobi Meyers target shares:
Week 7: 26%
Week 8: 43%
Week 9: 43%

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 10, 2020

Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

21% rostered

This is more of a context check, as Patrick’s 4-29-1 line gives him a TD or 100 yards in four of his last five games. That’s great! But we mentioned how Drew Lock set a career-high for pass attempts so reading into Patrick’s nine looks and KJ Hamler’s 10 targets is dangerous. Jerry Jeudy is very much the No. 1 without Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant is healthy again. 

Richie James Jr. (WR, SF) - 2% rostered - FAB: 1-2% - Back to reality with WRs healthy.
Chris Conley (WR, JAX) - 1% - FAB: 2-3% - Could be top-40 if Shenault is out.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - 15% - FAB: 2-3%  - Rodgers can support 3 WRs but MVS so inconsistent.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI) - 14% - FAB: 2-3% - He’s Chicago’s No. 2, plain and simple.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) - 7% - FAB: 1-2% - IND WRs underutilized but Pittman has highest ceiling.
Danny Amendola (WR, DET) - 2% - FAB: 1-2% - Underrated PPR option with Golladay out.
KJ Hamler (WR, DEN) - 2% - FAB: 1-2% - Monitor usage vs. Patrick moving forward.
Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, ATL) - 0% - FAB: 1-2% - Expect Ridley back after the bye, but Z is the insurance.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) - 1% - FAB: 1-2% - Wk 10 vs. ARZ could require similar high-octane passing.
David Moore (WR, SEA) - 3% - FAB: 1-2% - Remains a deep-league dart throw with Russ cooking.
Nelson Agholor (WR, LV) - 24% - FAB: 1-2% - Deserves more respect even with lower volume.
Cam Sims (WR, WAS) - 0% - FAB: 0-1% - Sims played 40 snaps, logged 110 yards.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Gerald Everett (TE, LAR) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

4% rostered

Everett quietly recorded a season-high nine targets in Week 8 prior to LAR's bye week but few are taking notice (nothing gets past Florio, though!).

#Rams Week 8 TE Usage

- Gerald Everett, 9 targets, 5 catches, 32 yards (55% snaps)
- Tyler Higbee, 4 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards (60% snaps)

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 1, 2020

Tyler Higbee has only seen more than four targets once this year, and even that only yielded five. Everett has seen 5 and 9 in his last two respective games (Higbee missed Week 7) and saw his work increase when Higbee returned from injury in Week 8. Week 10 against Seattle could be a big spot where all hands are required to keep up with Russell Wilson, so don't forget about Everett.

Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 3-4%

23% rostered

Just a reminder that Reed is capable of top-10 play when healthy, but he remained limited in Week 9. It wasn't too surprising given his fresh activation from the injured reserve and Week 10 at New Orleans should be a better indicator of his usage for Week 12 and beyond (SF has a bye in Week 11). He'll have fantasy playoff matchups in Weeks 14-16 against Washington, Dallas, and Arizona. That'll do!

Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 2-4%

7% rostered

Smith’s role continued to increase in Week 9 as he scored his first two touchdowns of the year. He only had those two catches but he made them count! And now he has at least four targets in three of his last four games. This comes even as Dalvin Cook is going Super Saiyan and Smith cedes run-block plays to Kyle Rudolph and Tyler Conklin. A full breakout in the second half is unlikely given the weapons that Minnesota has but it's worth noting that he's overtaken Rudolph when it comes to red-zone opportunities.

Trey Burton (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

23% rostered

With Jack Doyle in the league's concussion protocol and Indy playing on Thursday, look for Burton to get increased looks as the Colts seek a rebound win against the Titans. Despite missing the first three games of the season, Burton's 24 targets lead the trio of Indy TEs on the year (and then he has two rush TDs). Mo Alie-Cox also came just short of a touchdown catch in Week 9 and had three catches for 43 yards. For what it's worth, MAC led the TEs with 35 snaps compared to Burton (29) and Doyle (22). They both elevate but Burton's range of outcomes is slightly higher thanks to the Wildcat potential.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia Eagles Defense (at NYG) - 44% rostered - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Green Bay Packers Defense (vs. JAX) - 36% - FAB Bid: 1-2%
Minnesota Vikings Defense (at CHI) - 23% - FAB Bid: 1-2%
Detroit Lions Defense (vs WAS) - 2% - FAB Bid: 0-1%

If you can target offenses such as NYG, JAX, CHI, and WAS, then you do it. The top three here are already scooped up in many competitive leagues but the Lions are available nearly everywhere. That's sensible when you consider they haven't recorded more than two sacks in a game thus far and have surrendered 34-plus points in back-to-back weeks, but Washington isn't Indianapolis or Minnesota. You're prioritizing the first three with the Packers at home as my favorite while everyone (rightfully) swarms the Eagles, but I won't be shocked if Chicago yields a top-five DST performance for Minnesota if David Montgomery is out.

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