Eric Cross' Dynasty Notes - Baltimore and Cincinnati Stealing the Show

July 2, 2023

Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 14 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."

So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.

In this week's report, I'll be discussing surging bats in Texas, top second basemen bouncing back, and plenty of exciting young players in the Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds organizations.

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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes

Sometime in late May or Early June, I mentioned Ezequiel Duran in this article, and was mostly buying in at that time. Well, since then, Duran has been on an absolute tear, slashing .367/.412/.658 in the month of June with five home runs. For the season, he's still hitting .326 with 12 home runs in 229 plate appearances with exceptional Quality of Contact metrics, headlined by a 12.9% barrel rate and 47.1% hard-hit rate. He's one of just 11 players to rank in the 80th percentile or better in barrel rate and sprint speed. At this point, we have to start talking about Duran as a possible top-100 dynasty player by the end of the season if this continues.

Let's stay in the state of Texas because Corey Seager has been red hot all season and is slashing .369/.440/.650 in the month of June. The only player with a higher wRC+ than Seager's 199 mark in June is Shohei Ohtani who has a ridiculous 273 wRC+ this month. Overall, Seager is slashing .345/.411/.609 in 224 plate appearances with 10 home runs and 48 RBI. Per usual, Seager's approach has been rock-solid and he's currently running a 95 mph AVG EV, 19.3% barrel rate, and a 56.5% hard-hit rate. All three of those are career-best marks for a career filled with impressive QoC metrics. As long as Seager is healthy, he's a top-25 dynasty asset.

Well, the all-star game starters were announced on Thursday, and Atlanta's Orlando Arcia was named the starter at shortstop. Just as we all predicted earlier in the season when we were hyping and drafting Vaughn Grissom. Whoops. Sure, it certainly helps that it's been a down year for National League shortstops, but Arcia has performed admirably for the Braves. In 229 plate appearances, Arcia is hitting .303 and only striking out 19.7% of the time. However, despite a decent 42.2% hard-hit rate, Arcia isn't hitting for much power and his .397 xSLG is even lower than his .436 actual SLG. Without any SB impact, Arcia is limited to a low-end fantasy player moving forward and is a sell high for me right now in dynasty leagues.

Let's all take a second to welcome Ketel Marte back to fantasy baseball prominence. Entering the 2023 season, I was fading Marte as he was coming off a subpar season and had not proven that he could remain healthy for a full season or come even remotely close to replicating his 2019 career season. And while that 2019 season will probably still be his best season when his career is through, Marte has bounced back nicely this season and has been steadily shooting up dynasty rankings. In 76 games, Marte has hit 15 home runs with six steals and a .294/.371/.517 slash line. He has also recorded the highest barrel rate of his career while maintaining his elite contact skills and approach. If he can continue avoiding the IL, Marte looks like a top-5 dynasty second baseman once again.

Another second baseman having a resurgent season is Atlanta's Ozzie Albies. In 339 plate appearances, Albies has racked up 18 home runs and six steals with a .261/.314/.495 slash line. Basically, he's back to being the Albies we all knew and loved before his disappointing 2022 season. Albies has never been one to light up his savant page with red, but his Quality of Contact metrics are back to their normal pre-2022 levels and he continues to maximize those metrics with his pull-heavy approach that has risen to new heights this season with a 52.3% pull rate.

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the most exciting teams in baseball right now and are in the hunt for the National League Central division crown. And while most of the talk is centered around Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, Will Benson is quietly having a dominant month of June. In 71 plate appearances this month, Benson is slashing .351/.479/.614 with three home runs five steals, and more walks (19.7%) than strikeouts (18.3%). Not only is he showcasing an intriguing power/speed blend, but Benson also has a 87.7% Z-Contact, 76.9% contact, 8.4% SwStr, and 18.5% O-Swing rate. This has been a small sample size, so don't go crazy here, but the upside is massive with Benson and he's definitely worth buying in dynasty leagues to see where this goes.

If Cincinnati isn't the most exciting young team in baseball right now, it's because the Baltimore Orioles seized that throne. Baltimore already has a great young core at the Major League level and recently called up Jordan Westburg from Triple-A. If you've followed my work here on RotoBaller, specifically my weekly Top-25 Prospects to Stash column, you'll probably already know that I'm fairly high on Westburg, both for this season and long-term. Westburg is an above-average hitter with plus power that could settle in as a .270/25 bat long-term while adding double-digit steals annually as well. Given his blend of hit, power, speed, and approach, Westburg's upside is a top-50 player for fantasy.

But the list of exciting young players in Baltimore doesn't stop with Westburg. Colton Cowser should debut any day now (hopefully), and next year should bring the debut of mashing corner infield prospect Coby Mayo. For the season, he's slashing .307/.426/.594 with 26 doubles and 14 home runs in 69 games. We've seen his elite raw power since the draft, and Mayo has shown more patience this season, improving his walk rate from 9.1% to 14.8% while also trimming his strikeout rate by 1.7%. With an above-average hit tool and double-plus power, Mayo has middle of the order stud written all over him.

Several more Baltimore prospects on the rise right now to target in dynasty leagues are Heston Kjerstad (OF), Jud Fabian (OF), Samuel Basallo (C/1B), Darell Hernaiz (MI), Creed Willems (C/1B), Cade Povich (P), and Zack Showalter (P).

Let's keep this Cincinnati/Baltimore train going and add in several Cincinnati Reds prospects on the rise as well. Leading the way is the trio of Carlos Jorge (2B), Hector Rodriguez (OF), and Cam Collier (3B). It wouldn't surprise me at all if all three of these guys are considered top-25 overall fantasy prospects by the end of the season, and both Jorge and Rodriguez are already inching closer to that range right now. Both are plus hitters with plus speed that are tapping into more and more power this season. As long as botth can at least be 50-grade power bats, the upside for each is a top-100 overall fantasy player, maybe higher.

Other Cincinnati prospects to target include Chase Petty (P), Connor Phillips (P), Lyon Richardson (P), Ricardo Cabrera (SS), Leonardo Balcazar (SS), and even Jay Allen (OF).

Brayan Bello continued rolling in his outing against the Marlins on Thursday, allowing one earned run in seven nearly flawless innings. With this latest impressive outing, Bello now has a pristine 2.33 ERA over his last 11 starts. We're still waiting for the strikeout rate to rise though as Bello is still around a league-average strikeout rate of 21.8%. He's been missing plenty of bats with his changeup, as expected, but Bello's slider has not been fooling many opposing hitters with a .341 BAA, .585 SLG, and only a 20.3% strikeout rate. That pitch is the key to Bello's value rising even further, and I'm a believer in that happening.

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