RADIO
Following two straight weeks of tidy profit, we gave it all back last week with nothing short of a disastrous weekend. This weekend, we have the FA Cup semi-finals so the weekend schedule is light but we have additional midweek games to make up for it. And next week, we will be tweaking this article to cover all EPL fixtures every week, including some fantasy advice for season-long or DFS players while still including the betting picks.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 130-201-17 (91.64% ROI)
- Match results: 36-48
Saturday, April 16th, 2022
Brighton (+550) at Tottenham (-176) - 07:30 am ET
Tottenham pulled off an impressive 4-0 victory at Aston Villa last weekend, which followed a 5-1 win at home to Newcastle the week before. Brighton had an equally impressive win, picking up the points with a 2-1 victory at Arsenal. But the expected goals for each team paints different pictures.
Brighton's expected goals (xG) was 0.74 while Arsenal's was 2.27 (and the home team had a goal chalked off for a debatable offside). Despite scoring four, Tottenham had 0.88 xG while their opponents had 1.66 xG. It's not often your goalkeeper is the best player in a 4-0 victory.
That all being said, I expect Tottenham to win this one fairly comfortably. Brighton didn't look particularly great against Arsenal but were organized. Arsenal playing round pegs in square holes was a key contributing factor in the result.
Tottenham have match-winners in their side and one of them, I'm also backing to score here. Heung-min Son might have got the plaudits for his hat-trick last weekend but has just one goal in eight EPL games against Brighton.
Meanwhile, Harry Kane has five goals in seven games against them including one in their 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture a month ago. I'm expecting him to find the back of the net on Saturday.
Eight of Tottenham's nine goals in their last two games were scored in the second half. They've scored 17 goals in the second half of their 15 home games. They've failed to score just four times in the second half of their home games, three of them they were blanked for the entire 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Brighton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Tottenham (-176) - 2 units
- To score anytime - Harry Kane (+105) 1 unit
- Moneyline 2nd half - Tottenham (-125) 1.5 units
Brentford (+155) at Watford (+203) - 10:00 am ET
Brentford made it back-to-back league wins and four wins in five games with a 2-0 victory over West Ham United last weekend. It also made it four wins from four games in which Christian Eriksen has started since joining Brentford. Ivan Toney has scored six goals in those four games.
Brentford have scored 12 goals in their last five league games and haven't conceded more than once in that time. Meanwhile, Watford have conceded 13 goals in their last five games, scoring just three. They've lost four of those five games.
This is a game in which corners should be at a premium, with Brentford's 124 corners the fewest in the league and Watford's 130 the third-fewest. I expect Brentford to take more corners than their opponents based on their recent form.
In Brentford's last five games, they have taken 23 corners. Watford have taken just 12 corners in their last five games and haven't had more than five in any of those games.
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 2 Brentford
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Brentford (+155) - 1 unit
- Team total goals - Brentford over 1.5 (+155) - 1 unit
- To score anytime - Ivan Toney - (+140) 1 unit
- Corners handicap - Brentford -0.5 (+109) - 1 unit
Sunday, April 17th, 2022
Leicester City (+245) at Newcastle United (+125) - 09:15 am ET
Newcastle picked up a valuable three points by beating Wolves last Friday. It ended a run of three straight league defeats, albeit all in away games. At home, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six EPL games, winning their last four.
Leicester City reached the Europa Conference League semi-finals on Thursday so should be coming into this game in high spirits. But their away form has been dreadful. They've won just three away games all season, two of the wins coming against teams in the relegation zone.
Leicester have just one win from their last nine away EPL games (at Burnley) and have lost five of their last seven. Their 2-0 win at Burnley is also their only away clean sheet in the league this season.
I'm also taking the under on the cards market. Newcastle might have received the second most (74) cards in the league this season, but have received just one yellow card in five of their last seven EPL games.
Only Manchester City (37) have received fewer cards than Leicester (41). In Leicester's last six EPL games, they've been shown a total of nine cards and just one in four of those games. Jarred Gillett will be the ref for this one and has shown a total of 23 cards in six EPL games (3.83 per game average).
Gillett has shown no more than three cards in eight of his last nine games across the Premier League and Championship. The only exception being the game between Leeds United and Aston Villa, the teams that rank first and third in most cards shown.
I'll also take some action on the half-time market. Newcastle have played 15 home games this season and gone in at half-time level in eight of those games. Leicester have only led twice at half-time in their 14 away games and have drawn the first half of those games on six occasions.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Leicester City
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Newcastle United (+125) 1 unit
- Total cards - Under 3.5 (-140) 1 unit
- Draw no bet 1st half - Newcastle United (-150) 1.5 units
- Half-time/full-time - Draw/Newcastle United (+450) 0.5 units
Parlay
- Tottenham, Brentford and Newcastle United all to win (+800) - 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
More Betting and DFS Picks
