X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 33: English Premier League

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 33 of the 2021/22 season, starting on 04/16/2022. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games

Following two straight weeks of tidy profit, we gave it all back last week with nothing short of a disastrous weekend. This weekend, we have the FA Cup semi-finals so the weekend schedule is light but we have additional midweek games to make up for it. And next week, we will be tweaking this article to cover all EPL fixtures every week, including some fantasy advice for season-long or DFS players while still including the betting picks.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5@RichKingFF@LucidMediaDFS@PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

  • Total picks: 130-201-17 (91.64% ROI)
  • Match results: 36-48

 

Saturday, April 16th, 2022

Brighton (+550) at Tottenham (-176) - 07:30 am ET

Tottenham pulled off an impressive 4-0 victory at Aston Villa last weekend, which followed a 5-1 win at home to Newcastle the week before. Brighton had an equally impressive win, picking up the points with a 2-1 victory at Arsenal. But the expected goals for each team paints different pictures.

Brighton's expected goals (xG) was 0.74 while Arsenal's was 2.27 (and the home team had a goal chalked off for a debatable offside). Despite scoring four, Tottenham had 0.88 xG while their opponents had 1.66 xG. It's not often your goalkeeper is the best player in a 4-0 victory.

That all being said, I expect Tottenham to win this one fairly comfortably. Brighton didn't look particularly great against Arsenal but were organized. Arsenal playing round pegs in square holes was a key contributing factor in the result.

Tottenham have match-winners in their side and one of them, I'm also backing to score here. Heung-min Son might have got the plaudits for his hat-trick last weekend but has just one goal in eight EPL games against Brighton.

Meanwhile, Harry Kane has five goals in seven games against them including one in their 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture a month ago. I'm expecting him to find the back of the net on Saturday.

Eight of Tottenham's nine goals in their last two games were scored in the second half. They've scored 17 goals in the second half of their 15 home games. They've failed to score just four times in the second half of their home games, three of them they were blanked for the entire 90 minutes.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Brighton

Betting Picks

  • Moneyline - Tottenham (-176) - 2 units
  • To score anytime - Harry Kane (+105) 1 unit
  • Moneyline 2nd half - Tottenham (-125) 1.5 units

 

Brentford (+155) at Watford (+203) - 10:00 am ET

Brentford made it back-to-back league wins and four wins in five games with a 2-0 victory over West Ham United last weekend. It also made it four wins from four games in which Christian Eriksen has started since joining Brentford. Ivan Toney has scored six goals in those four games.

Brentford have scored 12 goals in their last five league games and haven't conceded more than once in that time. Meanwhile, Watford have conceded 13 goals in their last five games, scoring just three. They've lost four of those five games.

This is a game in which corners should be at a premium, with Brentford's 124 corners the fewest in the league and Watford's 130 the third-fewest. I expect Brentford to take more corners than their opponents based on their recent form.

In Brentford's last five games, they have taken 23 corners. Watford have taken just 12 corners in their last five games and haven't had more than five in any of those games.

 

Score prediction: Watford 1 - 2 Brentford

Betting Picks

  • Moneyline - Brentford (+155) - 1 unit
  • Team total goals - Brentford over 1.5 (+155) - 1 unit
  • To score anytime - Ivan Toney - (+140) 1 unit
  • Corners handicap - Brentford -0.5 (+109) - 1 unit

 

Sunday, April 17th, 2022

Leicester City (+245) at Newcastle United (+125) - 09:15 am ET

Newcastle picked up a valuable three points by beating Wolves last Friday. It ended a run of three straight league defeats, albeit all in away games. At home, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six EPL games, winning their last four.

Leicester City reached the Europa Conference League semi-finals on Thursday so should be coming into this game in high spirits. But their away form has been dreadful. They've won just three away games all season, two of the wins coming against teams in the relegation zone.

Leicester have just one win from their last nine away EPL games (at Burnley) and have lost five of their last seven. Their 2-0 win at Burnley is also their only away clean sheet in the league this season.

I'm also taking the under on the cards market. Newcastle might have received the second most (74) cards in the league this season, but have received just one yellow card in five of their last seven EPL games.

Only Manchester City (37) have received fewer cards than Leicester (41). In Leicester's last six EPL games, they've been shown a total of nine cards and just one in four of those games. Jarred Gillett will be the ref for this one and has shown a total of 23 cards in six EPL games (3.83 per game average).

Gillett has shown no more than three cards in eight of his last nine games across the Premier League and Championship. The only exception being the game between Leeds United and Aston Villa, the teams that rank first and third in most cards shown.

I'll also take some action on the half-time market. Newcastle have played 15 home games this season and gone in at half-time level in eight of those games. Leicester have only led twice at half-time in their 14 away games and have drawn the first half of those games on six occasions.

Score prediction:  Newcastle United 2 - 1 Leicester City

Betting Picks

  • Moneyline - Newcastle United (+125) 1 unit
  • Total cards - Under 3.5 (-140) 1 unit
  • Draw no bet 1st half - Newcastle United (-150) 1.5 units
  • Half-time/full-time - Draw/Newcastle United (+450) 0.5 units

Parlay

  • Tottenham, Brentford and Newcastle United all to win (+800) - 1 unit

 

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

More Betting and DFS Picks

 

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF