RADIO
The first EPL weekend following a 3-week hiatus nearly hit big for us. A game one winner was followed by a game two winner. Unfortunately, game three broke our hearts. Needing under 2.5 goals, the game was looking good at 0-0 with just 30 minutes left. With 20 minutes left, the score was 1-0 which also would've given us the correct score pick. But Aston Villa managed to equalize and quickly score a second, before adding a third late to deny us a +696 parlay. Still, two wins and a profitable weekend. This week, we have four picks I like but it will be a slightly shortened write-up for each to keep things manageable.
- Picks total - 35 out of 82
- Correct scores - 9 out of 81
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, April 10th, 2021
Leeds United @ Manchester City - 7:30 am ET
Leeds has secured back-to-back wins for the first time since January. Both wins have come against teams in the relegation zone, however. They've had little problems beating the teams beneath them, but unsurprisingly haven't fared too well against teams above them in the table. They've played nine away games against the current top-10 with three wins and six defeats. There's been a total of 38 goals in those nine games (15 scored and 23 conceded) including defeats of 4-3, 4-2 and 6-2.
Manchester City has all but won the league with a 14 point lead over second-place who only have eight games remaining. Their focus will mainly be on the Champions League but they also have the EFL Cup final and FA Cup semi-final to focus on. They'll want to wrap up the league title as soon as possible so I don't expect them to completely ease up here and sometimes, they're at their most dangerous when they just relax and play naturally. Manchester City's home record against the current bottom 10 teams in the league is 8-1-0 with 25 goals scored and just four conceded (three of which have come in the last two games).
Leeds' playstyle could suit Manchester City and providing the league leaders don't get complacent, they could easily cruise this game. Of course, Leeds could take advantage of any complacency and spring an upset but I'm siding with the home team. I'm expecting an open game and something similar to their first encounter which ended 1-1 with three bookings and 17 corners. Except I still believe Manchester City runs out comfortable winners.
Manchester City 1st - 74 pts
Leeds United 11th - 42 pts
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 0 Leeds United (Pinnacle odds +825)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Over 8.5 corners, over 1.5 total goals and over 1.5 total cards @ +117 (Draftkings)
Sunday, April 11th, 2021
Newcastle United @ Burnley - 7:00 am ET
Newcastle salvaged a much-needed point at home to Tottenham with a late equalizer last weekend. That draw does mean they've gone seven league games without a win but they have only lost once in their last five games. What was interesting about last weekend's game is they finally seemed to be trying to play a more attacking style of football, something they desperately needed to do following their insipid 3-0 loss to Brighton prior to the international break.
Burnley managed to blow a 2-0 lead away at Southampton last week, succumbing to a 3-2 defeat that leaves them still in a serious relegation battle. That was only their second defeat in their last nine league games and their last four games have seen both teams score, something that only happened seven times in their first 26 league games of the season.
Given Newcastle's desperation and newly found desire to play attacking football, coupled with Burnley's last two fast starts (leading 2-0 inside the opening 30 minutes in both games) without managing to keep a clean sheet, I envisage both teams scoring in this one.
Burnley 15th - 33 pts
Newcastle United 17th - 29 pts
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 2 Newcastle United (Pinnacle odds +1150)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both teams to score: Yes @ +104 (Pinnacle)
Leicester City @ West Ham United - 9:05 am ET
Leicester City remains on course for a top-4 finish and qualification for Champions League football next season despite a 2-0 defeat to Manchester City last weekend. Without any Europa League games for the remainder of this season, Leicester City has been able to rest and train all week so should come into this game fresh. They have a 10-4-1 record in away league games this season with their only defeat coming against Liverpool back in November.
West Ham continues to battle for a top-4 spot and has been treading a tightrope in their last two games. They led 3-0 in the first half of both matches (vs Arsenal and at Wolves) and after blowing that lead the first time (drawing 3-3), they were pegged back to 3-2 by Wolves but held on to win. I don't see them doing that to Leicester but they will need to defend better against the league's third-highest scorers.
West Ham United 4th - 52 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 56 pts
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 2 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +925)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both to score/total goals: Yes and over 2.5 @ +132 (Pinnacle)
Monday, April 12th, 2021
Southampton @ West Brom - 1:00 pm ET
As mentioned, Southampton secured a huge comeback win against Burnley last weekend. We anticipated goals in the game as Southampton had scored five in their previous three games but have the second-worst defensive record in the league with 53 goals conceded. The only team to have conceded more than Southampton? That would be West Brom.
West Brom gave their survival hopes a boost with a shock 5-2 win at Chelsea last weekend, although Chelsea was comfortable at 1-0 up after 30 minutes when defender Thiago Silva got sent off and West Brom took full advantage. Prior to that game, West Brom had gone three games without scoring and had just two goals in their last seven games.
West Brom's need for a win is much greater than Southampton's and both sides' inability to keep clean sheets (just 14 combined all season) should see both teams score and at least one team should score twice.
West Brom 19th - 21 pts
Southampton 13th - 36 pts
Score prediction: West Brom 2 - 2 Southampton (Pinnacle odds +1300)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both to score/total goals: Yes and over 2.5 @ +142 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all four picks as a parlay @ +2385
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 32 picks.
