RADIO
Last week didn't go as we had hoped. We did expect goals in the Aston Villa versus Southampton game. Unfortunately, all four were scored by Villa. Then Norwich signed their own relegation agreement by losing comprehensively at home to Brentford, although we did manage to salvage some wins in both games. But our biggest losing game ended up being the one we correctly predicted when Newcastle United beat Brighton but none of our props hit. All in all, an 80% ROI for the weekend.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 106-170-14 (-21.47 units & 92.03% ROI)
- Match results: 32-39
Saturday, March 12th, 2022
Burnley (+273) at Brentford (+122) - 10:00 am ET
Prior to last weekend's win at Norwich City, Brentford had picked up one point in eight games, scoring just four times and conceding 18. They have a chance to distance themselves from the relegation zone if they beat Burnley but they cannot afford to lose on Saturday.
It's a similar story for Burnley who cannot afford to lose to potentially find themselves more than a win from safety. A draw wouldn't be the worst result for them either, especially away from home. They come into this weekend on the back of two straight defeats without scoring a goal and conceding six.
All six of the goals Burnley conceded in those two defeats came in the second half and we could see a similar story again given Brentford's propensity for second-half improvements at home.
In 14 home games this season, Brentford have only scored four times in the first half and only twice have they led at the interval. In the second halves of their home games, they have scored ten goals and only been outscored in the second 45 minutes on three occasions (seven times they've drawn the second half of a home game).
Burnley's splits in away games are pretty even, scoring six in each half of their 13 away games, while they've conceded 11 first-half goals and nine second-half goals. In what looks like it'll be a nervy and edgy game, I'm expecting the opening 45 minutes to be tight and likely goalless.
We'll also be playing the cards market for this one. Both teams are among the most penalized this season, with Brentford being fifth (52) and Burnley tied-ninth (49) for yellow cards. The referee for this game is Paul Tierney who has booked more players than anyone else this season (86 yellow cards in 20 games). If the game does play out as I expect, yellow cards could be handed out pretty liberally.
The corners market also appeals in this one. Only Everton (102) have taken fewer corners than Burnley (113) and Brentford (106) this season. When these two teams met earlier in the season, despite Burnley running out 3-1 winners, only six corners were taken in the whole game.
Brentford haven't taken more than six corners in any of their last 11 games (averaging 3.36 per game in that time). Burnley haven't taken more than six corners in any of their last 19 games and haven't topped six in any away game this season.
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 1 Burnley
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Draw (+235) 1 unit
- Half-time correct score - 0-0 (+150) 1 unit
- Total booking points - 40+ (+120) 1 unit
- Total corners - Under 10 (+125) 1 unit
- Race to 7 corners - Neither (-140) 1.5 units
Sunday, March 13th, 2022
*The following games on Sunday feature teams who also played on Thursday evening. Generally, this can throw up some stranger than usual results with teams regularly rotating their starting XI when playing two games in less than 72 hours. So be extra cautious and wait for teams to release their lineups an hour before kickoff before placing any bets.
Norwich City (+460) at Leeds United (-161) - 9:00 am ET
The only two teams without a win in their last six league games go head-to-head in another relegation battle, but unlike Saturday's encounter, I'm picking a winner here and siding with the home team favorites.
Leeds lost 1-0 at Leicester City last weekend (new Head Coach Jesse Marsch's first game in charge) before a humbling 3-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa on Thursday. While last weekend looked like an improvement for a team that had conceded 20 goals in their previous five league games (letting in at least three in all of them), Thursday's defeat was concerning.
But, they did get to welcome back Patrick Bamford and for a team in desperate need of a goal threat, he could be the difference-maker in keeping Leeds from relegation. Despite having plenty of promising attacks, they fail to threaten the opponents' keeper often enough but I'm holding out hope that this weekend sees a similar performance to last weekend as opposed to Thursday.
The xG (expected goals) in last weekend's game were 2.13 for Leeds and 0.35 for Leicester. All aspects of the game should have led to Leeds getting at least a point from the game and they really should have won it. They started the second half brightly against Aston Villa but lack a real cutting edge and then conceded a second goal which killed the game.
Meanwhile, Norwich were soundly beaten by Brentford 3-1 last weekend and lost again 3-1 at home to Chelsea on Thursday. They've now scored just 17 goals in 28 games, which is by far the fewest in the league and only opponents Leeds (64) have conceded more than them (61).
While the cards market will be a popular play for many this week, I'm avoiding that until we get a better understanding of Leeds' play style under new management. Given they are the league leaders in yellow cards, finding value in a bet of that nature will be difficult. One prop we will play however, is for a penalty to be taken in the game.
No team has conceded more penalties than Norwich this season (ten in 27 games) and they gave away two last week. Thursday saw them win (and score) their third penalty of the season. Leeds United have conceded five and taken three penalties themselves this season.
Stuart Attwell is the referee scheduled to take charge of this game and he's awarded four penalties in 14 EPL games this season. That's despite being one of the more lenient refs in the league this season (third lowest in fouls per tackle).
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 0 Norwich City
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Leeds United (-161) 1.5 units
- Both teams to score - No (+118) 1 unit
- Total goals - Under 3 (-114) 1.5 units
- A penalty to be taken - Yes (+150) 0.5 units
Watford (+462) at Southampton (-158) - 9:00 am ET
Prior to Thursday's defeat against Newcastle, Southampton had just one home loss to their name this season, with five wins and seven draws. While Watford have picked up more points in away games (13) than at home (seven points), their record against teams currently in the top half of the table is dreadful and was made worse following their 4-0 loss at Wolves on Thursday.
Watford have only played five of the current top-10 away from home and have just one point to show for themselves (a goalless draw at Manchester United). At home, they have played all ten of the top half in the league, with one win (also against Manchester United) and nine defeats.
Southampton have found their goalscoring form recently, especially at home scoring two or more in three of their last five home games. The only exceptions were against Manchester City and Newcastle when they scored just once in both games.
Their run of ten straight games with a goal ended last weekend with their 4-0 defeat at Aston Villa, a run that also saw them score two or more in six games. Watford's defense had been markedly better away from home before Thursday's defeat so I don't expect Southampton to run up the score in a similar manner to how Wolves did.
Watford's last four home games have seen them concede 12 goals, while their last four away games before Thursday (all under Roy Hodgson's management) had seen them score just once but also concede just one. I'm expecting a closer game than the oddsmakers but I still expect Southampton to take the three points.
We will hedge by playing the spread. Watford have only lost three of their 13 away games by more than one goal (both by two goals before Thursday) while Southampton have won three of their 13 home games by more than one goal (albeit their last two home games ended in 2-0 wins).
We're also going to take a play on the number of yellow cards in the game. The referee for this game is Graham Scott who has shown 27 yellow cards in nine games and neither of these teams have had more than two yellow cards shown to them in their last five games.
Since Roy Hodgson took over at Watford, they've only been shown 11 yellow cards (eight games) and there have been no more than three total yellow cards shown in seven of the last nine games involving Watford. For Southampton, there have been no more than three total yellow cards shown in any of their last four games.
Our final bet is a player prop on Stuart Armstrong and his penchant for shooting. Armstrong has started Southampton's last six games, completing 89+ minutes every time and he scored his second goal in four games on Thursday. He's now had 24 shots in his last six games, hitting the target six times and testing the opposing keeper in all but one. This bet is only viable if he starts the game.
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 1 Watford
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Southampton (-158) 1.5 units
- Spread - Watford +1.5 (-195) 1.5 units
- Southampton to score in both halves - Yes (+150) 0.5 units
- Both teams to score 2nd half - Yes (+210) 0.5 units
- Correct score 1st half - Southampton 1-0 Watford (+280) 0.5 units
- Both teams' total cards - Under 2.5 each (-182) 1.5 units
- Player shots on target - Stuart Armstrong 1+ shots on target (-120) 1 unit
Sunday Parlays
- Parlay - Southampton and Leeds United to win (+163) 1 unit
- Parlay - Wolves and Aston Villa to win (+1087) 0.5 units
- Parlay - Wolves (+140) and Aston Villa (+150) draw no bet (+500) 0.5 units
- Parlay - Newcastle United (+725), Wolves (+140) and Aston Villa (+150) draw no bet (+4850) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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