RADIO
Just as it looked like our run of misfortune was going to continue, Leicester City takes us to the promiseland. Once again, it was a week of near misses. Sheffield United just needed a goal for a +102 pick. Tottenham decided to actually try and score more than one goal and ran out 4-1 winners, as we predicted them to win but in a lower scoring game. But it was Leicester City who bagged an 87th-minute winner for a +193 pick and the +1100 correct score. Let's hope that leads to a change in our luck moving forward. There are only so many times you can lose out on picks from missed penalties, disallowed goals or hitting the woodwork in injury time.
- Picks total - 31 out of 76
- Parlays - 2 out of 25
- Correct scores - 9 out of 78
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, March 13th, 2021
West Brom @ Crystal Palace - 10:00 am ET
West Brom picked up another point last weekend with a 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle. While every point is huge for them, they still find themselves nine points from safety with ten games to go. At some point, West Brom needs to turn draws into wins but only have three wins all season and despite only losing once in their last five games, they've also only won one of those five games. They have also scored just two and conceded just two in those five games.
Crystal Palace is similarly poor in front of goal with just three goals in their last six games, drawing a blank on four occasions. Their only win six games was a 2-1 victory at Brighton where they had just two shots on target all game and the winner came in the 93rd minute. They should be safe from relegation but last weekend's 4-1 defeat at Tottenham looked like a team going nowhere.
These two sides actually rank as the worst two teams in expected goals scored (xG) with West Brom being 20th (20.2 xG) and Crystal Palace 19th (22.0 xG). I can make a case for another 0-0 draw or either side winning 1-0 but either way, it's going to be a low-scoring affair. Unfortunately, the game lines represent that already so we'll add in the corner market too. West Brom has had the fewest corners all season (99) while Crystal Palace ranks third last (107). I'm expecting a snoozefest so we'll add in the under on total corners too.
West Brom 19th - 18 pts
Crystal Palace 13th - 34 pts
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 1 West Brom (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Under 3.5 total goals & under 10.5 total corners @ -105 (Draftkings)
Burnley @ Everton - 12:30 pm ET
Continuing our theme of low-scoring teams, Burnley ranks second last in goals scored with just 20 goals in 28 games. They've only lost one of their last five games but also have just one win their last nine games and needed a controversial non-decision on a handball to secure a point against Arsenal last week. They're very much in a relegation battle and will need to grind out draws and 1-0 wins to stay up as they lack the firepower to do anything else. Their record this season against teams currently in the top-7 is poor too, with just two draws and nine defeats in those games, scoring four and conceding 25.
Everton's run of three straight wins and clean sheets was ended last week with a 2-0 loss to Chelsea. Despite being in the top-6, they've failed to pick up enough points against the teams they're competing with for a top-4 spot with seven points in seven games against such teams. Their home form has been sketchy all season too with just 17 points in 13 home games this year, something which is more common across the Premier League this season.
Despite Everton's so-so form and home record, they should still have enough to beat Burnley but the odds reflect their superiority and I don't think they win as convincingly as the oddsmaker suggests. To give us better odds, we'll add in under 3.5 total cards. Burnley is the fifth least penalized team with 35 yellow cards in 28 games while their opponents have only had 23 total bookings. Everton's opponents have had 46 bookings, the same number they've received themselves. The referee for this game is Jon Moss who has handed out 43 total cards in 17 games (2.53 per game).
Burnley 15th - 30 pts
Everton 6th - 46 pts
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 0 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Everton to win and under 3.5 total cards @ +138 (Draftkings)
Sunday, March 14th, 2021
Brighton @ Southampton - 7:00 am ET
Brighton's last three games have all ended in heartbreaking losses. The aforementioned injury-time 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, a 1-0 loss to West Brom in a game they missed two penalties and last week was another 2-1 defeat we mentioned earlier (at home to Leicester City). Sadly for them, I see a similar story this week. They continue to play attractive football and rank eighth in xG (38.7), a sign they just can't convert their chances into goals. Before this run of defeats, they had managed to keep five clean sheets in six games. That defensive prowess is now waning and they still aren't scoring enough goals which is a recipe for failure.
Southampton ended their winless run of nine games last week when they beat bottom of the table Sheffield United 2-0. They couldn't build on that in midweek, succumbing to top of the table Manchester City 5-2. That's pretty much a perfect representation of Southampton right now, can beat the poorer teams but struggle against the better teams. Four of their remaining ten games are against sides below them and they should be able to pick up enough points in those games to avoid relegation, starting here.
I'm not confident enough in Southampton to win, nor can I bring myself to back Brighton until they prove they can actually score more of the chances they create. Southampton's defense gives them the perfect chance to do that and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this turned into a high-scoring game. The two sides have met seven times in the Premier League and five of those games saw both teams score, including the 2-1 Southampton win earlier this season.
Brighton 17th - 26 pts
Southampton 14th - 33 pts
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 1 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +1100)
Betting Pick:
- Both teams to score - Yes @ +100 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +829
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 29 picks.
