RADIO
Last weekend saw us bag another winning matchweek with two wins from three picks. We almost nabbed a correct score too but Wolves late winner denied us the +525 bet. We've entered a period where European competitions have restarted meaning for some teams, they'll have midweek fixtures and additional travel. Some teams are having to play in neutral countries due to Covid restrictions so we need to tread carefully with the teams affected more than normal. This weekend's slate covers four days from Saturday with an extra game on Tuesday, but we're picking three games on Saturday as our value plays.
- Picks total - 27 out of 64
- Parlays - 2 out of 21
- Correct scores - 8 out of 66
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, February 20th, 2021
Chelsea @ Southampton - 7:30 am ET
As mentioned in our introduction, Chelsea is one of the teams that have a midweek European fixture, facing La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their last-16 tie on Tuesday. Given Chelsea are still in a serious battle for a top-4 league spot and qualification into next season's European Champions League, it's unlikely they'll rest more than a couple of players for this fixture if any. Since new Head Coach Thomas Teuchel took over at Chelsea, they've won four and drawn one of their league games with four clean sheets and scoring seven.
Southampton succumbed to a sixth straight league defeat, losing to Wolves 2-1 despite taking the lead. The positive is they've now scored in two straight league games for the first time since mid-December, having found the back of the net just three times in their previous nine games. Southampton has a Tuesday EPL game against Leeds United and is still in the FA Cup so have a somewhat congested fixture list coming up too but aren't in a league position where they can rest any key players.
The reverse fixture saw these sides play out a 3-3 draw after Chelsea led 2-0 and then 3-2 in the 90th minute. I don't foresee another six-goal thriller but I think Chelsea's focus might be slightly on Tuesday's game and with Southampton's form, I see both scoring but Chelsea taking the points. You can take that option at +270.
Southampton 13th - 29 pts
Chelsea 4th - 42 pts
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +825)
Betting Pick:
- Both to score and total goals - YES and over 2.5 @ +140 (Pinnacle)
West Brom @ Burnley - 10:00 am ET
West Brom picked up a credible point at home to Manchester United last week and could have easily won the game if they took one of their late chances. However, it's now six games without a league win for West Brom and just two wins all season, one being against bottom of the table Sheffield United. They also have just two clean sheets on the season, the last one being the 1-0 win against Sheffield United back on November 28th. The 55 goals they've conceded this year is comfortably the most (next is Leeds with 42) and only two teams have scored fewer than them.
Burnley consolidated their 3-0 win at Crystal Palace last week with a 1-1 draw at home to Fulham, making it three straight league games without defeat. A look through their fixtures this season will show us that Burnley has actually been very good against the weaker teams and it's only the top teams they've struggled against. Of the eight games they've played against teams currently 14th or lower in the table, they've won four and drawn four with zero losses. They've only conceded three goals in those games too.
The meeting between these two ended 0-0 earlier this season. I don't envisage this one being much different but that game was played in matchweek 5 when neither team had a league win and Burnley was pointless. Since that game, West Brom has picked up just 11 points in 19 games while Burnley has won 26 points in 20 games. West Brom's need for the win is much greater than Burnley's but that may have a negative effect on them as the pressure mounts, especially if they go behind or the game is still level in the latter stages.
Burnley 15th - 27 pts
West Brom 19th - 13 pts
Score prediction: Burnley 2 - 0 West Brom (Pinnacle odds +875)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Burnley to win @ +110 (Pinnacle)
Sheffield United @ Fulham - 3:00 pm ET
Fulham's draw at Burnley leaves them six points adrift of 17th place and safety from relegation but they've now made it three league games without a defeat. Fulham's form has been pretty remarkable given the number of draws they've had recently. In their last 14 league games, Fulham has won just once but have just four losses all of which came against sides currently in the top-4 league positions, with nine draws in that spell. During that run, they have only conceded 13 goals and no one has managed to score more than twice against them. That newfound defensive efficiency has contributed to a lack of goals as 11 of their 20 goals scored this season came in their first 10 games, with just 9 in their last 14 matches.
While Sheffield United's form has picked up recently, picking up nine of their 11 points this season in their last seven games, they remain bottom of the table and likely need nine wins from their last 14 games if they are to avoid relegation. Their 3-0 defeat last time out against West Ham was indicative of their season, creating chances but failing to take them. And when they go behind, you can almost see the belief drain out of them. Sheffield United has only twice managed to take points from a game after conceding the first goal which is a major problem given they have just one clean sheet all campaign. Their big problem has been scoring goals all season but they've scored seven goals in their last seven games after scoring just eight in their first 17 games.
The previous meeting in matchweek 5 ended 1-1 which was both teams' first point of the season. The game was goalless with fifteen minutes remaining, indicative of their early-season struggles. Now, this game is a must-win for both sides, and that generally leads to a draw. Fulham will likely be more satisfied taking a point from this game but time is running out for both sides if they want to be in the EPL next season. Both teams will need to press for a win at some point and I think it ends in a tight game and likely disappointment for both.
Fulham 18th - 19 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 11 pts
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Both teams to score YES @ +108 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +948
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 26 picks.
