RADIO
After a short break for the FA Cup third round, we're back at it with a full EPL schedule as well as some additional catch-up games in midweek. That's something we should expect more of with around 20 postponed games needing to be played at some point. We still have the threat of covid causing late postponements too so we'll continue to tread carefully after what has been a rough few weeks for us due to so much disruption.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 73-117-12 (-11.70 units)
- Match results: 23-26
Saturday, January 15th, 2022
Leicester City (+153) at Burnley (+188) - 10:00 am ET
This game has been postponed and will be played later in the season
Southampton (+243) at Wolves (+134) - 10:00 am ET
Wolves' impressive season rolled on when they beat Manchester United away 1-0 in their last EPL game before cruising to a 3-0 FA Cup win against Sheffield United of the Championship. Their success has been down to their defensive record with just Manchester City (13) having conceded fewer than their 14 goals against.
They do only have 14 goals scored which are second-fewest also and while they have six clean sheets in their last eight games, they only have three goals in that run. But the only defeats during that run came against Manchester City and Liverpool and after losing their first three home games of the season, they've lost just one of their last six.
Southampton does come into this game in something of a decent run of form. Their midweek 4-1 win against Brentford means they're now unbeaten in their last four league games and have picked up ten points from their last seven games. They also managed to overcome a first-half red card to beat Swansea in the FA Cup last weekend.
After finding goals hard to come by earlier in the season (14 goals in their first 16 games), they've scored ten in their last four EPL games and scored three in their FA Cup tie. They have gone nine league games without a clean sheet and no one has drawn more than the nine games Southampton has this season.
I'm not expecting a classic and Wolves' struggles to score goals make winning games all the harder, relying on clean sheets to pick up three points. But they're coming up against a Southampton team finding their goalscoring form and who could move within a point of them with a win.
We'll also look to target the corners market which seems to provide some value. Wolves has played nine home games and taken 36 corners (averaging four per game), with only one game seeing them take more than five. They've conceded 45 corners (averaging five per game) and conceded five or more in each of their last three games.
Southampton has had 57 corners in their ten away games (5.7 per game average) and conceded 63 (6.3 per game average). Five of their last six away games, they've had at least six corners and only twice have they conceded more than five. In their meeting earlier this season, both teams had five corners.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Southampton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - draw (+218) 0.5 units
- Highest scoring half - Tie (+205) 0.5 units
- Race to five corners - Southampton (+180) 0.5 units
- Corners handicap - Southampton +0.5 (+102) 1 unit
Watford (+273) at Newcastle United (+104) - 10:00 am ET
This is a game that could have huge implications in the relegation battle. Newcastle is currently 19th, two points and two places behind Watford and both teams are in terrible form.
At the start of December, Newcastle picked up their first league win of the season against Burnley but since then, have three defeats and a draw in the league, before being unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by Cambridge United of League One.
They are investing in new players this January and will probably need a few more incomings (especially in attacking areas) if they are to avoid relegation. But their draw against Manchester United prior to their FA Cup exit offered a glimmer of hope and their three losses prior to that game came against Leicester City, Manchester City and Liverpool.
Newcastle has only scored more than one in a game four times (19 matches) but will be facing a Watford team without a clean sheet in the league. This is also a Watford team with six straight league defeats heading into this weekend and with three players missing through international duty.
The good news for Watford is that top scorer Emmanuel Dennis is still with the team after Nigeria failed to call him up for the Africa Cup of Nations in time. Dennis has eight goals in 16 games, five of which have come in his last seven games.
The reverse fixture on matchweek six saw the game end 1-1 and what was noticeable then was the seven yellow cards awarded in the game. This encounter will be refereed by Paul Tierney, who has shown 61 yellow cards and one red card in 15 games.
Newcastle is the second-most penalized team with 48 yellow cards (19 games) while Watford has been shown 35 yellow cards (18 games) which is tied-11th most. I'm expecting an edgy game that could have plenty of 'needle' in it so taking the over in yellow cards makes sense. I'll also add in a penalty prop given these two have combined for ten penalty concessions this season.
I genuinely don't know what way this game will go but I'd fancy Newcastle United to win if I had to. Their odds just don't appeal enough so I'm not taking a match-winner in this one but certainly wouldn't be averse to adding them into a parlay at plus odds.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 2 Watford
Betting Picks
- Both teams to score - Yes (-155) 1.5 units
- Total goals - Over 2.5 goals (-125) 1 unit
- Single game parlay - Newcastle United over 1.5 cards & over 3.5 total cards (-143) 1.5 units
- A penalty to be taken - Yes (+163) 0.5 units
- To score anytime - Emmanuel Dennis (+150) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
