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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 20 of the 2021/22 season, starting on 12/28/2021. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games
It was a rough Boxing Day for us. With two of our three games postponed due to covid issues, we were left with one match and unfortunately, failed to bag a single pick. A Brentford second-half goal would've seen us make a profit but despite numerous chances, they failed to score and we took what turned out to be our biggest loss of the season from just one game. There are already two games from the matchweek postponed due to covid and more wouldn't be surprising so we'll see how things go and update accordingly.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 70-107-12 (-5.96 units)
- Match results: 23-23
Tuesday, December 28th, 2021
West Ham United (+117) at Watford (+248) - 10:00 am ET
West Ham's recent form is a concern with just one win and two draws from their last seven league games. They were also knocked out of the Carabao Cup before Christmas and lost their last Europa League group game during this spell.
Boxing Day's defeat at home to Southampton now leaves them seven points from fourth place although it was their first home defeat since matchweek seven. It's their away form in recent times which is the biggest issue with just one point from their last four road games with only one goal scored and five conceded. The 0-0 draw at Burnley is their only clean sheet in their last nine league games.
Watford had Boxing Day off as their game with Wolves was postponed due to the latter's covid outbreak. They've now had three straight league games postponed due to covid issues with their last game being back on December 10th. While the rest should do them well, they will also more than likely have some rustiness to begin with.
Watford is sitting in 17th place in the league and comes into this on the back of four consecutive league defeats. They have scored in each of those games and the 21 goals they've scored this season are tied for tenth most, but they have yet to keep a clean sheet all season.
I fancy Watford to get something from this game. I expect it to be a slow burner with Watford having not played in 18 days and West Ham having played just 48 hours before this one kicks off. That freshness in the Watford team should aid them as the game goes on and I wouldn't be surprised to see a goalless first half before the game comes to life after the interval.
West Ham has played nine away games in the EPL this season, with eight goals coming in the first half of those games and 13 in the second half. Watford's eight home games have seen 12 first-half goals and 15 second-half goals so the numbers do lean in towards the second-half being the higher scoring half.
If Watford does get anything from the game, they will be reliant on top scorer Emmanuel Dennis to add to the seven goals he's scored already this season. The Nigerian will be joining his national team next week for the African Cup of Nations and he'll be heading there in good form with five goals in his last seven league games (four in his last five).
Score prediction: Watford 2 - 1 West Ham United
Betting Picks
- Draw no bet - Watford (+155) 1 unit
- Both teams to score and total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+126) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Emmanuel Dennis (+170) 1 unit
- Both teams to score second-half - Yes (+190) 1 unit
Tottenham (+110) at Southampton (+265) - 10:00 am ET
Both teams won on Boxing Day and despite them both having to play 48 hours prior to this encounter, they have both only played five games in the last 30 days due to various postponements. The visitors should have the advantage of having a larger squad to choose from and were able to take off Harry Kane after an hour on Boxing Day.
Tottenham had a comfortable 3-0 victory at home to Crystal Palace on Sunday, aided by their opponents being reduced to ten men in the first half which made the second half something of a stroll. Southampton was pegged back twice away at West Ham before finally securing a 3-2 win, their first victory in seven games.
Tottenham come into this game unbeaten since Antonio Conte took charge and have four wins and two draws from their last six league games. One was a very fortunate draw against Liverpool but most importantly, star striker has scored in back-to-back league games after finding the net once in his first 13 league games following a summer in which he wanted to leave the club.
Kane also has ten goals in 12 league games against Southampton so getting plus odds on him to score anytime when he should be fresher than most, is looking back in form and facing a team that has conceded 16 goals in their last seven games is something we will look to take advantage of.
We'll also be venturing into the corners market for this one. In six away games, Tottenham is averaging 4.17 corners and only once have they taken more than four in an away game. At home, Southampton is averaging 6.13 corners per game (eight games) and has taken five or more in seven of the eight games.
Only once have Southampton's opponents taken more corners than them in those eight home games while Tottenham has taken more corners than their opponents just twice in their six away games. We'll back the home team to take more corners than the visitors.
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Tottenham
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Tottenham (+110) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Harry Kane (+115) 2 units
- Tottenham team goals - Over 1.5 (-105) 1 unit
- Corners handicap - Southampton -0.5 (+118) 1 unit
Liverpool (-248) at Leicester City (+602) - 3:00 pm ET
Leicester was involved in a crazy game on Boxing Day. Trailing Manchester City 4-0 at half-time, they mounted a comeback getting back to 4-3 before ultimately losing 6-3. That's pretty indicative of where they are as a team, with plenty of firepower but a dreadful defense.
The 33 goals Leicester has now conceded is fourth most and the 30 goals scored is tied-fifth most. And that leaky defense now faces the only other team that has scored 50 league goals this season, but Liverpool has done that in one fewer game than Manchester City.
Liverpool has scored in every league game so far (18 matches), scored more than once in 15 games and scored three or more in ten games. They scored three goals in each of the games they've played against the three teams who have conceded more than Leicester this season (Leeds United, Newcastle United and Norwich City). They will also be the fresher of the two teams having had their Boxing Day game postponed after their opponents Leeds United had a covid issue.
Normally, when a team gets hammered like Leicester was, I'm averse at backing something similar to happen again as they tend to tighten things up defensively. But I've been critical of them all season for their defensive frailties and Sunday's scoreline wasn't completely out of the blue given how porous they've been at the back.
So I'm going to be backing Liverpool to score a few again. Leicester does have enough going forward to keep it close if it is a high-scoring affair so I'll be avoiding the handicaps and focusing smaller amounts on some higher odds picks.
These two teams have pretty even splits in regards to when goals are scored in their games. In 17 games, Leicester's matches have seen 33 first-half goals and 30 second-half goals. Liverpool has played one more game and seen 31 goals in the first half of their matches with 34 in the second half.
We'll also look at a player prop with Trent Alexander-Arnold getting an assist (or a goal). He has eight assists already this season (16 games) with two goals and is Liverpool's main set-piece taker. Only teammate Mo Salah (nine) has more assists in the entire league this season. Liverpool leads the league in set-piece goals with ten while Leicester's 11 goals conceded from set-pieces is tied-most.
If there's a free-kick around the penalty area, expect Alexander-Arnold to take it and there's a very real chance he either picks out a teammate or finds the back of the net himself, if he doesn't manage it from open play of course.
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 4 Liverpool
Betting Picks
- To score over 2.5 goals - Liverpool (+100) 1 unit
- Over 1.5 goals in both halves - Yes (+270) 0.5 units
- Players assists - Trent Alexander-Arnold to assist 1+ goals (+125) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Trent Alexander-Arnold (+650) 0.5 units
- To score in both halves - Liverpool (+100) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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