RADIO
We reach the halfway point of the season (minus some postponements that need making up) and it's the perfect time to wish you all a Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it and a happy holiday period to anyone who doesn't. After last week's schedule was heavily impacted by covid postponements, we changed our usual picks to some parlays on the remaining games and bagged a nice 138.55% ROI with Liverpool failing to beat Tottenham the only wrong result we picked. As per previous recent weeks, keep in mind that covid is still impacting the schedule and we could see games called off at any moment.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 70-102-12 (-0.46 units)
- Match results: 23-22
* The initial version included Watford at Wolves and Everton at Burnley, but both of these games have now been postponed after the initial publication so have been removed. Only one game remains in this week's article for the matchweek.
Sunday, December 26th, 2021
Brentford (+318) at Brighton (-103) - 3:00 pm ET
Brighton's winless run now sits at 11 games and while they've only lost three of them, that run has seen them slip from fourth down to 13th place and below their Boxing Day opponents in the table. Brighton won the reverse fixture 1-0 back in matchweek four and you'd have had good odds on them only winning one more game since that encounter.
If it wasn't for injury time equalizers, Brighton would be looking at four defeats in their last five games and during this 11-game winless run, they've only scored twice in a game once, have seven total goals and drawn a blank on five occasions.
Brentford's recent form has been up-and-down but they've steadied the ship after a run of four straight defeats. Since that run, they've won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five games. They've scored eight and conceded eight in that span and are expected to welcome back top scorer Ivan Toney back for this game having missed the last two games with an injury.
Brighton's form has been so bad, even at home to a newly promoted team, I'm struggling to back them at their respective odds. The value play is for the away team to cause an upset or at least manage to get a point from the encounter.
Brentford hasn't been too proficient defensively, with four clean sheets this season but only one in their last 11 games. Since their encounter in matchweek four, Brentford has only failed to score once (12 games) and their 21 goals scored this season ranks tenth so I feel they have enough firepower to score but also look likely to concede, making the 'both teams to score' bet appealing too.
The two teams' splits between the first and second halves are also of interest. Brentford's games have seen 23 first-half goals and 20 second-half goals. Brighton's games have seen 16 first-half goals and 15 second-half goals. Given both teams' propensity for goals in the first half, their even splits and Brighton's recent last-minute goals, I like the odds of there being a goal in each half.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 2 Brentford
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Brentford (+318) 0.5 units
- Double chance - Draw or Brentford (-116) 1 unit
- Draw no bet - Brentford (+195) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-102) 1 unit
- To win either half - Brentford (+140) 1 unit
- A goal in both halves - Yes (+105) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
