RADIO
Never did a profitable week feel as hollow as last weekend. We bagged a small profit on Newcastle beating Burnley, a good profit on Aston Villa beating Leicester City and a decent profit on the parlays. But the Southampton versus Brighton game brought us heartbreak. Brighton's 98th (yes, 98th) minute equalizer denied us from having doubled our money on the weekend. Instead, we were left with a 104.46% ROI. Thems is the breaks, but we go again. Just a heads up that covid is once again impacting teams with two outbreaks among EPL squads already this week.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 60-92-11 (-0.47 U)
- Match results: 19-18
Friday, December 10th, 2021
Watford (+263) at Brentford (+120) - 3:00 pm ET
Watford continued their slide down the league table with a 3-1 defeat against Manchester City last weekend. In truth, Manchester City didn't really need to be at their best and were comfortable winners, condemning Watford to a third straight league defeat and a fifth loss in six games.
Brentford was denied a second win in three games after Leeds United equalized in the 95th minute against them last weekend, leaving Brentford with just one win in their last eight league games. They are also going to have to do without top scorer Ivan Toney through illness, although he did miss last weekend's game in which Brentford scored twice.
Watford has been dismal most of the season and if it wasn't for Manchester United's pathetic performance against them (Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's last game in charge), they may be coming into this game on the back of six straight defeats. Their only other win since matchweek 5 came against Everton when they scored four goals in the final twelve minutes to win 5-2.
It appears as though Watford's only route to a victory is if their opponents are in complete shambles and implode in the blink of an eye. That's not something I foresee happening with Brentford and I expect the home team to beat Watford, something they did in the Championship last season in the same fixture (2-0).
Watford's 29 goals conceded is third-most in the league and they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. After keeping clean sheets in their first two games of the season, Brentford has just two since then and just one in their last ten games. I don't see either team keeping one here.
Both teams have a fairly even split of goals in both halves. Brentford games have seen 22 first-half goals (eight at home) and 18 second-half goals (nine at home). Watford games have seen 24 first-half goals (12 away) and 25 second-half goals (ten away). It's a good shout for there to be a goal in both halves of this one.
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Watford
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Brentford (+120) 1 unit
- A goal in both halves - Yes (-120) 1.5 units
- Both teams to score - Yes (-132) 1.5 units
- Both teams to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+138) 1 unit
Sunday, December 12th, 2021
Newcastle United (+390) at Leicester City (-132) - 9:00 am ET
At the time of writing, there are reports out of Leicester City that they are experiencing a covid outbreak so monitor this game before wagering on it. Seven players will miss their Europa League game on Thursday for different reasons (some covid related) but it's unclear who so I'm analyzing this game as if they have a fully fit squad.
Newcastle got their first league win of the season last weekend (as we predicted) and they now have just one defeat in their last five games. Their 1-0 victory against Burnley was also their first clean sheet of the season as Callum Wilson scored in back-to-back games after going four games without a goal.
Prior to that mini goal drought, Wilson had scored in three consecutive games and found the back of the net in four of his first five games of the season. As the team's penalty taker, he has a good route to a goal this weekend as well.
Leicester lost at Aston Villa last weekend (something we also predicted) and conceded two or more goals for the fourth game running. They haven't kept a clean sheet since the opening weekend and have conceded at least two in each of their last five home games.
Leicester has an even 3-1-3 record at home and has been really inconsistent. They failed to score three times but have scored four in two of those games. I've seen nothing to suggest they will suddenly turn things around defensively and expect them to concede again here but continue to find goals themselves.
Newcastle's new Head Coach, Eddie Howe, had a reputation for attacking football which produced high scoring games when in charge of Bournemouth and he will no doubt look to target Leicester's defensive frailties. No team has conceded more goals from set-pieces than Leicester this season and the winning goal last weekend came via a header from a corner. That looks like a good route for Newcastle and I'm sure it's something they will seek to exploit.
Newcastle will have renewed confidence and shouldn't fear Leicester. This fixture saw Newcastle win 4-2 last season and I wouldn't be surprised to see that again. I'm expecting goals and although I'm not convinced the away team causes an upset, the odds for Leicester City to win aren't appealing especially given their porous defense and any potential absentees will just add to those woes.
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 2 Newcastle United
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Newcastle United (+390) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Newcastle United (+270) 0.5 units
- To score anytime - Callum Wilson (+150) 1 unit
- Both players to score - Jamie Vardy & Callum Wilson (+330) 0.5 units *only if both players are starting
- Both teams to score in both halves - Yes (+700) 0.5 units
- Both teams to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (-102) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
