RADIO
The games keep coming thick and fast this time of year. The midweek games weren't kind to us as we made a small loss, but it stemmed the bleeding from the previous weeks. Newcastle's early red card didn't help with our Jonjo Shelvey prop but Norwich did avoid defeat and should've won it late which would have seen us bag a nice profit. Leicester and Southampton had a high-scoring affair as we predicted and a Jamie Vardy goal would have seen us hit another nice profit. We then got the draw with Wolves and Burnley correct while hitting a prop but it wasn't enough to secure a profit on the week.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 54-85-11 (-1.05 U)
- Match results: 17-17
Saturday, December 4th, 2021
Burnley (+227) at Newcastle United (+137) - 10:00 am ET
Newcastle came close to their first league win of the season with a 1-1 draw at home to Norwich on Tuesday. It doesn't look like a good result on paper, but they had to play over 80 minutes with just ten men and led through a Callum Wilson second-half penalty. Only a late Teemu Pukki screamer denied them, although they did need Norwich to miss a great chance late on to get a point.
It was arguably Newcastle's best performance of the season and new Head Coach Eddie Howe will be desperate for three points this weekend with a tricky Christmas fixture list looming and the gap between them and safety widening.
Burnley made it five straight games without defeat after a goalless draw against Wolves on Wednesday, but just one win in that span leaves them inside the relegation zone still. Their torrid scoring run (nine goals in four games) ended too in what was a pretty drab affair.
Given Newcastle's desperate need and that they appear to be trending upwards, I'll give them the edge in this one. Their effort on Tuesday was impressive given the circumstances and as long as they didn't over-exert themselves, a similar performance with all eleven players on the pitch should see them win this game.
Callum Wilson's penalty only just squeaked in on Tuesday but it ended a run of four straight games without a goal and he leads the team with five goals this season (1o games), four of which have come in his six home games. He'll need to find his goalscoring touch regularly if Newcastle is to avoid relegation and I back him to score again this week.
Prior to Wednesday's 0-0 draw, Burnley's six away games had all seen a goal in the second-half whilst only once was the game goalless at half-time. Newcastle has been level at half-time in five of their seven home games but will be looking for a hot start this weekend and I expect them to have a better start than they did on Tuesday night. With both teams needing a win, a goal in both halves looks likely.
Tuesday's red card was the only card issued in the game but leaves Newcastle as the most cautioned team in the league (37 yellow cards and two red cards). Burnley is tied-sixth with 31 yellow cards. Paul Tierney is the referee for this game and has shown 42 yellow cards in ten games so I expect we see a few more dished out this week.
Burnley has had two or more yellow cards in nine of their 13 games this season and three or more in four of seven away games. I expect them to be on the back foot and pick up at least two more this week while I certainly think Newcastle will play a high tempo game and will likely pick up one or more themselves.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Burnley
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Newcastle United (+137) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Callum Wilson (+125) 1 unit
- A goal in both halves - Yes (-120) 1 unit
- Single-game parlay - Burnley over 1.5 cards & total over 3.5 cards (-105) 1 unit
Brighton (+217) at Southampton (+151) - 10:00 am ET
Southampton's 2-2 draw with Leicester was their first point in three games and was just the third time this season in which they've managed to score more than once in a league game. They have now found the net in four straight home games. Only Liverpool has kept a clean sheet against them in their last eight games and the four teams that have prevented Southampton from scoring are all in the top-six positions in the league table.
Southampton will need top scorer Che Adams to keep up his recent goal-scoring form if they are to keep clear of the relegation zone. The Scotland international has three goals in his last five games and has had 11 shots in the five home games in which he's played. I fancy him to add to his tally this weekend.
Brighton head into this weekend in the top half but has been slipping backward after a good start. That's down to their run of nine league games without a win. They've only lost twice in that run with Wednesday's late equalizer against West Ham seeing them draw for the seventh time in this winless run.
Brighton has failed to score in four of those nine games but has kept a clean sheet in three of them. Seven of the nine games have seen two or fewer total goals, with only the Liverpool (2-2) and Manchester City (4-1) games seeing more than two goals in them.
Southampton has not been behind at half-time in any of their seven home games (3-4-0) whilst Brighton has yet to lead at half-time in any of their seven away games (0-3-4). In what looks like being a tight game, I expect those records to remain after this game.
All three of Southampton's victories this season have been by a 1-0 scoreline and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same score here. It should be a close game and I'm edging towards a Southampton win by the odd goal.
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 0 Brighton
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Southampton (+151) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Che Adams (+200) 1 unit
- Both teams to score and total goals - No & under 2.5 (+130) 1 unit
- First half draw no bet - Southampton (-136) 1 unit
- Winning margin - Southampton by 1 (+330) 0.5 units
Sunday, December 5th, 2021
Leicester City (+202) at Aston Villa (+143) - 11:30 am ET
I picked Leicester to beat Southampton 3-2 on Wednesday and they fell one goal short of doing so. That score pick was largely down to Leicester's porous defense which has now conceded the fourth-most in the league and has just let both Southampton and Watford score two against them in their last two games.
Aston Villa lost for the first time under Steven Gerrard, going down 2-1 to Manchester City on Wednesday. They trailed 2-0 at halftime but kept fighting and could have nicked a point late on, but Ollie Watkins' third goal in five games was in vain.
Watkins' made it three straight home games with a goal and now gets to face a team without a clean sheet since the opening weekend of the season, without a clean sheet away (seven games) and with ten goals conceded in their last five league games.
Both these teams have had 72 corners this season and both have conceded 79 corners. Since Gerrard took over, Aston Villa's three league games have all had at least ten corners but they have given away more corners than their opponents in seven straight league games.
Aston Villa's recent performances have been more promising than their opponents with Leicester's only win in their last five games coming against 17th placed Watford. Gerrard appears to have helped Aston Villa turn the corner and I fancy them to take all three points here.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 - 1 Leicester City
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Aston Villa (+143) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Ollie Watkins (+200) 1 unit
- Most corners taken - Leicester City (+163) 0.5 units
- Corners handicap - Leicester City +1 (+110) 1 unit
Parlays
Given the close nature of all three games, I'll be playing some small parlays too;
- Moneyline - Newcastle United, Southampton & Aston Villa (+1346) 0.3 units
- Draw no bet - Newcastle United, Southampton & Aston Villa (+389) 0.5 units
- To score anytime - Callum Wilson, Che Adams & Ollie Watkins (+1925) 0.2 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
