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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 11 of the 2021/22 season, starting on 11/05/2021. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games
Not quite the weekend we were hoping for. Despite favoring Burnley to beat Brentford (slightly), I didn't see them going 3-0 up and running out comfortable winners. Thankfully, the corners pick came in still and Bryan Mbeumo didn't play which voided one bet also. Meanwhile, Watford failed to build on their 5-2 win the week before and put in a completely abject performance on their way to a 1-0 defeat against Southampton. The bookings pick came in and Watford was denied a late equalizer by a brilliant save which would've seen us break even. But they didn't deserve anything from the game and should have lost by a bigger margin. Onwards and upwards as we head into another international break next weekend.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 40-44-4 (+13.10 U)
- Match results: 13-10
Saturday, November 06th, 2021
Norwich City (+500) at Brentford (-170) - 11:00 am ET
This is the game I'm least excited about and one I won't be investing much into. But what it does offer is some high odds for what I believe could be Norwich's first win of the season.
It looks like it'll be another relegation for Norwich who has just two points from their ten games so far. Two seasons ago when they got relegated from the EPL, they had seven points at this stage but only picked up 14 points the rest of the season. They also have just three goals scored and last week's goal in their 2-1 defeat to Leeds was their first since matchweek 5.
While I can't bring myself to back Norwich to win, I think they are being overpriced, especially given both these teams gained promotion last season from the Championship (Norwich winning the league and Brentford finishing third). Norwich beat Brentford in one of their league encounters last season and drew the other game. Brentford is coming into this weekend following three straight league defeats so form isn't on their side either.
Brentford is finding goals tougher to come by now, with just two goals in their last three league games and no player has scored more than two goals for them this season. I'm expecting a tight and pretty dull game that could end up goalless. So as a reminder, never bet on 0-0 as a correct score. Always take no goalscorer instead. It offers the same odds but means if the only goal(s) of the game is an own goal, it still pays out whereas 0-0 correct score obviously won't. We'll take a small piece of that.
Norwich's 25 goals against are the most in the league, but 15 of them came against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City (top three teams in the league). Only Watford has scored more than two against them outside of those three teams and they average 1.4 goals conceded in games not against the top three. I expect a low-scoring game even if it doesn't finish 0-0.
I see some potential in the corners market too. No team has taken fewer corners than Brentford this season (35 in ten games) and while Norwich's 43 aren't much more, if they are to get something out of this game, they should wind up taking more corners. I'll take the +1.5 on the handicap but again, just a small pick.
Score prediction: Brentford 0 - 1 Norwich
Betting Picks:
- Draw no bet - Norwich City (+350) 0.5 units
- Anytime goalscorer - No goalscorer (+950) 0.5 units
- Corners handicap - Norwich +1.5 (+104) 0.5 units
- Total goals - Under 2.5 (-122) 1 unit
Wolves (+215) at Crystal Palace (+154) - 11:00 am ET
While the first game doesn't offer me much in the way of exciting anticipation, this game does and has the potential to be the game of the day for the neutrals (even with the Manchester derby kicking off Saturday's action).
While Wolves' former manager (Nuno Espirito Santo) was sacked by Tottenham after four months in charge this week, their new man in charge, Bruno Lage, is seeing his team flourish and are sitting in seventh place on a run of five games unbeaten (four wins and a draw).
Crystal Palace are also in the midst of a five-game unbeaten run while under the tutelage of a new manager (Patrick Vieira), but their run consists of four draws prior to their impressive 2-0 victory over champions Manchester City last weekend. The only two teams to have beaten them this season are Chelsea (first) and Liverpool (second), so no one outside the top two in the league table has beaten them yet.
It may be sitting on the fence a bit, but I believe both teams' unbeaten runs remain intact. That being said, I do believe there is a little bit of value in the away side given their impressive form and ability to win games rather than drawing them. I don't see Wolves winning by more than one goal, however, something their four wins in the last five games have all been by.
Regardless of the result, I do see both teams scoring in this one. Four of Crystal Palace's last five games have seen both teams score, with their clean sheet against Manchester City being the exception. And that was after Manchester City was reduced to ten men in the first half and had a goal disallowed by VAR. Both teams have scored in each of Wolves' last four games.
Another thing these teams have in common is having more exciting second halves than in the first 45 minutes of games. There have been 21 goals in Wolves games this season, with nine coming in the first half and 12 in the second half. Crystal Palaces games have seen 27 goals in them with nine coming in the first half and 18 in the second half.
Of Crystal Palace's five home games, there have been just three first-half goals and eight second-half goals. While in Wolves' five away games, just two goals have been scored in the first half and nine in the second half. I expect to see an exciting second 45 minutes regardless of how the first half plays out.
I'm also going to take a small prop bet, with backing a penalty to be awarded. Wolves has conceded three penalties so far this season, second-most in the EPL and while Crystal Palace has only been awarded one, Wilfried Zaha is always a threat to win a penalty with his playstyle. Referee Graham Scott has awarded 21 penalties in 86 career EPL games (0.24 per game) so there's a decent chance we see one this week.
The final prop bet I like the odds of is in the corner market, with Wolves having the most corners. Crystal Palace's 35 corners is tied-fewest in the league (with Brentford) while Wolves have had 45 corners. Crystal Palace has conceded 55 corners while Wolves has conceded 48. Crystal Palace has taken fewer corners than their opponents in eight of their ten games including four of five home games. Wolves have had more corners than their opponents in six of their ten games (one tie). In their five away games, only once have their opponents taken more corners than them.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 2 Wolves
Betting Picks:
- Draw no bet - Wolves (+118) 0.5 units
- Both teams to score - Yes (-102) 1 unit
- Highest scoring half - Second half (+100) 1.5 units
- Both teams to score second-half - Yes (+255) 0.5 units
- Most corners - Wolves (+100) 1 unit
- Penalty to be taken - Yes (+200) 0.5 units
Sunday, November 07th, 2021
Leicester City (+157) at Leeds United (+182) - 9:00 am ET
This is another game that holds plenty of intrigue, with Leeds coming off a hard-fought 2-1 win against bottom-of-the-table Norwich last weekend (just their second win of the season). Leicester suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal last Saturday which broke a four-game unbeaten run.
Although Leeds have only lost once in their last four league games, they've been struggling to score with only two teams having fewer than their ten goals and they have only scored four goals in their last four games. Leeds has been missing their top scorer from last season, Patrick Bamford, who is also expected to miss this week's game. Raphinha does have four goals and looks like their most likely route to goal with Bamford sidelined.
Meanwhile, Leicester failed to score for only the second time this season when losing last week, but their 15 goals scored this season is the most of any team outside of the current top five. They've scored in all five away games so far this season and will be looking for Jamie Vardy to add to his seven goals scored this season. Their firepower is better than Leeds' right now and they carry a greater goal threat which I believe will see them come out on top (although the 17 goals they have conceded does make me believe they'll need to score more than once to win).
I'll be backing Vardy to score this week. He's scored in three of Leicester's away games and hasn't been starting the team's midweek Europa League games in a bid to keep him fresh for the EPL games. That's been working so far, as he's scored in two of the three EPL games the weekend after a Europa League game. The only blank came when he was taken off at half-time with an injury. Vardy also scored in this fixture last season (which Leicester won 4-1).
Leeds has scored in four of their five home games, only failing to do so against Liverpool. They only have one clean sheet at home, which came against Watford. Given Leicester's defensive struggles (they haven't kept a clean sheet since the opening weekend), I see both teams scoring and Leeds won't have a much better chance to find some form in front of goal.
Leicester's five away games have seen both teams score and at least three goals in all of them. They've conceded and scored in every league game after a Europa League game and played Spartak Moscow in the Europa League on Thursday (a game in which Vardy came on for the final 20 minutes and missed a penalty en route to a 1-1 draw). Hopefully, it'll just make him more fired up to score in this one.
We'll also be looking into the card market, with Darren England taking charge of this game having dished out 21 cards in his three prior EPL games this season (20 yellow cards and one red). He has shown no fewer than six cards in each of those three games included Leeds' encounter with Everton, booking a total of six players.
Leeds 23 yellow cards are tied for fourth-most in the league while Leicester has been awarded just 13 (third-fewest). There have been at least three bookings in all ten of Leeds' games this season and the 23 bookings given to their opponents are tied-most.
That is hardly surprising given Leeds has made the second-most tackles in the league and has been the third most tackled team. It will be easy to pick Leeds to be awarded more cards than Leicester but I'll take the total cards and the over on booking points (10 points for a yellow card and 25 for a red card) given the odds and Leeds' home and away splits with bookings (nine at home and 14 away).
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 2 Leicester City
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Leicester City (+157) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Leicester City (-116) 1 unit
- Both to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (-102) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Jamie Vardy (+138) 0.5 units
- Each team total cards - Over 1.5 (+163) 0.5 units
- Total booking points - 40+ (-138) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
