RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 4 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 8/27/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It was a strange weekend. We hit five winners (and one void) from the six Saturday games. Then went 0-for-3 on Sunday before bagging a winner on Monday. Overall, a weekend of profit but it would have been a huge weekend if Nottingham Forest held on for a win or Chelsea managed to score at Leeds. We have our first full midweek schedule immediately after the weekend so there's no time to wallow.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 14-16
- Total picks: 15-12-2
- Parlays: 1-3
- ROI: 112.42% (+2.36 units)
Saturday, August 27th, 2022
Manchester United (-122) at Southampton (+332) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Manchester United
Southampton picked up their first win of the season, coming from behind to beat Leicester City 2-1. Only Leicester (eight) have conceded more than Southampton (seven) this season with both teams scoring in each of their three league games.
Manchester United picked up their first points and win of the season on Monday, beating bitter rivals Liverpool 2-1 at home. It was a much-improved performance, largely down to a changed starting XI in which Erik ten Hag dropped Fred, Harry Maguire and Cristiano Ronaldo (among others).
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Manchester United to win and to score 2+ goals (-110) 1 unit
I'm not buying into the Manchester United resurgence after one game against a struggling Liverpool side. But it was such an improved performance compared to their first two league games. Southampton still don't appear able to defend so I expect Manchester United to build on Monday and make it back-to-back wins.
Player to watch: Jadon Sancho
Sancho showed immense composure to score the opener on Monday and has been an ever-present in Manchester United's first three games. He desperately needed a run in the starting lineup and looks like he's finally showing why Manchester United paid ~$100m for him.
Everton (+290) at Brentford (+105) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 0 Everton
Brentford suffered a heartbreaking loss to near neighbors Fulham last weekend. After conceding in the first minute, they fought back from 2-0 down to draw level. Only to concede in the last minute and fall to their first defeat of the season. They have now scored eight goals which is third most only behind Arsenal and Manchester City.
Everton scored a late equalizer at home to Nottingham Forest to pick up their first point of the season. But they still look like a side destined for a long relegation battle this season and goals continue to be hard to come by.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Brentford (+105) 1 unit
I was surprised to see Brentford at plus odds so I'm backing them to win at home. Everton don't look like a team capable of scoring more than one in any game and Brentford's pace of play should be too much for the visitors. Brentford did the double over Everton last season and I expect it to be three wins from three contests against them.
Player to watch: Ivan Toney
Toney has two goals this season and continues to press for a place in England's world cup squad. He scored the only goal in this fixture last season and is the likely difference between these two sides on Saturday.
Leeds United (+316) at Brighton (-112) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Leeds United
Brighton's impressive start to the season continued last Sunday, beating West Ham United away 2-0. They are now unbeaten in three games to begin the campaign and have away wins against two teams that finished in the top-7 last season.
Leeds are also off to an impressive start and comprehensively beat Chelsea 3-0 last weekend. They find themselves third in the table having scored at least twice in each of their games, despite selling last season's top scorer Raphinha in the preseason.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Leeds United (+205) 0.5 units
I find it hard to separate these two teams but feel like Leeds have had slightly the more impressive start and their ability to score goals gives them a minor edge in this one. Brighton are favorites as the home side but having them odds-on seems a bit too aggressive so I'm edging an upset but playing safe in the event of a draw.
Player to watch: Jack Harrison
While Rodrigo's four goals have got him the headlines, Jack Harrison continues to impress and has gone under the radar for over a year. He has three assists and a goal so far and his 15 shot creating actions is the fourth most in the league. Harrison has the ability to create what could be a match-winning goal in what should be a tight contest.
Leicester City (+712) at Chelsea (-248) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 1 Leicester City
Chelsea dropped more points on Sunday, losing 3-0 at Leeds and have scored just three goals in their three league games. I had concerns about them to start the season and they've done nothing to allay those worries, especially up front.
Leicester keeps finding ways to drop points from a winning position. After throwing away a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 on the opening weekend, they lost 2-1 at home to Southampton despite leading midway through the second half. Their eight goals conceded are the most in the league.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-106) 1 unit
This is a contest between a team struggling to score and a team struggling to keep goals out. Chelsea will be without the suspended Kalidou Koulibaly and despite shipping in goals, Leicester have at least found the net in each of their games. Neither defense fills me with much confidence.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
Sterling is yet to live up to the ~$55m fee Chelsea paid Manchester City for his services. Without a real top goal-scoring threat in their side, he'll need to start proving he wasn't solely reliant on the creative talents of his former teammates to score himself.
Bournemouth (+2097) at Liverpool (-763) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Bournemouth
Liverpool's title challenge is in danger of being over before September following their loss at Manchester United on Monday. They now sit in 16th with just two points from their three games and desperately need a reaction with some tricky fixtures coming up after this week.
Bournemouth's tough early schedule continues and after an opening day win, defeats to Manchester City and Arsenal (with an aggregate score of 7-0) have brought them back down to Earth with a thud. Their schedule does get easier after this week so they may see this game as one to get out of the way before the real work begins.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - First half (+180) 0.5 units
In their two defeats, Bournemouth have started slowly and found themselves 3-0 down and 2-0 down at half-time. I expect Liverpool to come out of the blocks fast and look to get in front early to settle the players and fans. Backing more goals in their first 45 minutes is a slight risk but this is a game whereby the plus odds of this bet seem like very good value.
Player to watch: Luis Diaz
It's easy to point the finger at selling Sadio Mane as one reason why Liverpool have started the season so poorly. In Diaz, they have a ready-made replacement who shined in the second half of last season and scored a fantastic goal to salvage a point against Fulham. He's the type of player that can drag a struggling team over the line in games and I expect him to play a key role in this one.
Crystal Palace (+1671) at Manchester City (-571) at - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 0 Crystal Palace
Manchester City came from two goals behind to draw at Newcastle United 3-3 last Sunday. That did make it nine goals in three games (tied-most) and Summer signing Erling Haaland scored his third goal of the season. I don't expect City to go two games without a win very often this season.
Palace came from a goal down to pick up their first win of the season at home to Aston Villa last weekend, winning out 3-1. After games against Arsenal and Liverpool to begin the season, a return of four points is pretty solid and they will no doubt be relishing a chance to upset the Champions again this season.
Betting pick: Handicap - Crystal Palace +2.0 (+103) 0.5 units
Crystal Palace handed Manchester City one of their two home losses last season (winning 2-0) and in drawing 0-0 at home, were the only team to keep two clean sheets in the league against City. They picked up a hard-earned draw at Liverpool a fortnight ago and made Arsenal work for their 2-0 win to open the season so I expect them to put up a fight this weekend.
Player to watch: Ilkay Gundogan
Gundogan didn't play in either of City's games against Palace last season and while de Bruyne and Haaland get most of the spotlight, the German international is regularly the driving force behind their successes while chipping in with goals and assists. He could be the key to City winning a tight game.
Fulham (+866) at Arsenal (-292) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 0 Fulham
Arsenal are the only team with a 100% record to start the season, following their impressive 3-0 win at Bournemouth last time out. Their nine goals scored is tied for most in the league and it's a far cry from their opening three games last season, which saw them pointless and goalless while conceding nine.
After drawing their first two games of the season, Fulham nearly blew a 2-0 lead before finding a last-minute winner to beat Brentford last weekend. They were the one high-profile exit at the hands of lower league Crawley in the EFL cup on Tuesday, but had made ten changes to their starting lineup as avoiding relegation from the Premier League remains their number one priority.
Betting pick: Race to seven corners - Neither (+110) 0.5 units
I don't believe this will be an easy game for Arsenal and despite winning all three of their contests so far, they are yet to take more than six corners in a game. They have conceded no more than three in any game. Meanwhile, Fulham haven't taken or conceded more than six corners in any of their three games so I'm playing the trend and going with neither team reaching the seven corners mark.
Player to watch: Gabriel Jesus
Jesus continues to shine at his new club. In his only home game for Arsenal, he scored twice and assisted the other two goals while last weekend, he was the key orchestrator in the first goal and then assisted the second before having a goal ruled out for a marginal offside. He looks like he'll be involved in goals every time he steps foot on the pitch.
Sunday, August 28th, 2022
West Ham United (+225) at Aston Villa (+133) - 9:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 1 West Ham United
Villa have lost both away games this season while winning their only home game. They were about the only Premier League team to put out a very strong side in the EFL cup on Tuesday (beating Bolton Wanderers 4-1) as they look to get their season truly up and running.
West Ham are the only team without a point and have failed to score too. In their only away game, they missed a penalty, hit the woodwork twice and had a goal disallowed so it's not like they aren't trying! They have a Thursday trip to Viborg, of Denmark, the second leg of their Europa Conference tie but after winning 3-1 in the first leg, I expect a much-changed side between Thursday and Sunday.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-139) 1 unit
I can't see West Ham going four games without a goal to start the season and away at Nottingham Forest, they did everything but score. Last season, only three teams conceded more home goals than Villa, who are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Of their 19 home games last season, both teams scored in 11 of them.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen
Michail Antonio has question marks hanging over him with West Ham failing to score so far. But Bowen emerged as West Ham's star last season and led the team with 12 league goals. He could be the player to ignite their season and if West Ham do find the net at least, he'll likely play a part in the goal.
Newcastle United (+175) at Wolves (+180) at - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 0 Newcastle United
It's a similar story to last season for Wolves. Goals continue to be hard to come by with only one scored so far. Their 38 goals last season was the fewest in the league outside of the three relegated teams. But the 43 goals they conceded last season were the fewest outside of the top-4.
Newcastle will be ruing last weekend's draw with Manchester City, letting a 3-1 lead slip. Since Eddie Howe took charge, Newcastle have been much more solid defensively and started the season with two clean sheets. Only Tottenham and Manchester City have scored more than one against them this calendar year (22 games).
Betting pick: Both teams to score - No (-102) 1 unit
Newcastle's propensity to keep clean sheets, along with Wolves' tight defense and limited attack makes this game look like a certainty to be a low-scoring affair. Of course, that probably means it ends 4-4. But while I can see Newcastle nicking a winner, I'm struggling to see both teams scoring in this one.
Player to watch: Pedro Neto
The Portuguese winger is being linked with a move to Arsenal and it's unsurprising when you see him play. Neto could hold the key to Wolves managing to find a goal and possibly their first win of the season and after starting just five EPL games last season, has been in the starting XI for all three of Wolves league games so far.
Tottenham (-213) at Nottingham Forest (+636) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Tottenham
Forest were denied a first-away win in the league, Everton equalizing late on last weekend. But it's still been a solid four points return for the newly promoted team who continues to invest heavily in a bid to retain their Premier League status long-term.
Tottenham struggled to a 1-0 win at home to Wolves last weekend and following a fortunate draw at Chelsea the week before, question marks over their credentials remain. They should still have enough in attack to win this weekend but will want to put in a much-improved performance to remove any doubts about what they can achieve this season.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+117) 0.5 units
Forest have been a tough nut to crack so far. Their opening day loss at Newcastle was only by a 2-0 scoreline and there have yet to be more than two goals in any of their games. Tottenham's 1-0 win against Wolves could easily have ended in a reverse scoreline and they are yet to really get up-and-running this season. While I believe the home team make it a tough game, Tottenham's attacking players should be the deciding factor.
Player to watch: Son Heung-min
Last season's top scorer has yet to find the net this season and has just one assist to his name. In what could be a tough away game, Son's pace on the break could play a deciding part in the game and he'll be desperate to get his goal tally started sooner rather than later.
Parlays
Moneyline: Big 6 all to win (+569) 0.5 units (Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United)
Double chance: Leeds United to win or draw, Newcastle United to win or draw, West Ham United to win to draw (+392) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
