EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchweek 38: English Premier League

May 20, 2022

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 38 of the 2021/22 season, the season finale, on 5/22/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy

The last weekend of the season is here, and there's still plenty to play for. The destination of the league title has yet to be confirmed, fourth place is still (sort of) up for grabs and the final relegation spot is still open. After a highly profitable weekend, we doubled our money on Thursday's games and was just one goal away from a sweep. Fingers crossed our luck holds into this weekend so we can finish the season on a high.

As we've been doing recently, all fixtures will be covered for the season finale. We're still offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

Old Style

• Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
• Match results: 38-49

New Style

• Match results: 29-19
• Total picks: 23-26-0
• Parlays: 4-8-0
• ROI: 100.87% (+0.54 units)

Sunday, May 22nd, 2022

Everton (+774) at Arsenal (-247) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 0 Everton

Arsenal needs to win and hope Tottenham loses at Norwich City if they are to finish fourth. They cannot finish lower than fifth place. If they do win, only the top two will have won more points at home this season than Arsenal.

Everton produced a remarkable comeback to secure their Premier League survival on Thursday. After losing 3-2 to Brentford last Sunday, they reversed things by beating Crystal Palace 3-2 (after trailing 2-0 at half-time). They cannot finish lower than 16th and could end up in 15th if they better Southampton's result.

Betting pick: Winner/total goals - Arsenal/over 2.5 (+103) 1 unit

Everton will have expended so much energy over their last two games and having secured their survival, will be able to play without any pressure. Arsenal's last two defeats will have left a bitter taste and they'll want to at least finish on a high. If a miracle does occur at Norwich, they won't want to have blown their chance of finishing fourth by not winning here.

Player to watch: Eddie Nketiah

Likely to be his last game for Arsenal, this will be Nketiah's final chance to show his worth as he becomes a free agent this summer. He scored twice in his last home game against Leeds and has four goals in seven starts since becoming a first-team regular.

Leeds United (+184) at Brentford (+138) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Leeds United

Brentford's first season in the Premier League has been a huge success and a win coupled with a Brighton loss will see them finish in the top-10, although they could still finish as low as 14th. They've won their last two games and are unbeaten in their last four home games.

Due to their vastly inferior goal difference, Leeds have to better Burnley's result to stay up. A Burnley win will guarantee Leeds' relegation and they come into this game with just two points from their last five games.

Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-171) 1.5 units

Although the greater need is for Leeds to win, they've looked devoid of that ability in recent games and their squad is being stretched to the max. While I think they score, as they will likely have to if they stand any chance of survival, I just don't see them keeping a clean sheet.

Player to watch: Christian Eriksen

Eriksen's return to the game has been remarkable after his heart issues and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ends the season with a bang, being the party pooper for Leeds. Most of Brentford's creative play stems from the Dane and he's always a solid shout for a goal or assist.

West Ham United (+196) at Brighton (+143) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 2 West Ham United

Brighton will secure their first-ever top-10 finish in the EPL with a win, but defeat could see them slip down to 14th. Their home form has been a weakness all season with just four wins and the 19 points they've picked up at home is the third-fewest in the league.

West Ham have guaranteed a top-7 finish and a place in European competition next season. A win will see them finish sixth if Manchester United fails to win and that will see them avoid a qualifier for the Europa League.

Betting pick: Draw no bet - West Ham United (+100) 1 unit

Brighton's home form coupled with West Ham's desire to avoid European qualifiers (which start much sooner than the EPL season) should give them the impetus to go for the win. West Ham have the better players so providing they can put out a fit defense, I'll take the draw no bet on them as underdogs.

Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen

Bowen is West Ham's top scorer this season with 12 league goals and should have already done enough to secure a spot in England's next squad. He's also got 10 assists and has scored or assisted in each of his last three league games.

Newcastle United (+233) at Burnley (+130) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Newcastle United

Following their 1-1 draw at Aston Villa on Thursday, Burnley just has to match Leeds United's result to secure their survival. That draw ended their two-game losing streak but they're the second-lowest scorers in the league and only scored more than once in a game eight times this season.

Newcastle United can finish anywhere between tenth and 14th, but have already created history by becoming the first team in EPL history to avoid relegation after failing to win any of their opening 14 games of the season. Coincidentally, their first win of the season came against Burnley.

Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+241) 0.5 units

Burnley's staff will undoubtedly have one eye on the Leeds United game. If Leeds finds themselves trailing, Burnley could just look to play out for a draw, knowing they only have to match Leeds' result. Given a draw will be enough for Burnley as long as Leeds fail to win, I'll take a small play on that result given how many permutations favor it.

Player to watch: Maxwel Cornet

Cornet has scored in two of Burnley's last three home games and is the club's top scorer with eight. He could be the one to keep Burnley in the Premier League and if he does, it'll repay the $15m Burnley spent on the Ivorian last summer.

Watford (+1749) at Chelsea (-600) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 4 - 0 Watford

Their 1-1 draw on Thursday secured Chelsea third place despite just one win from their last six home games in all competitions. They've gone ten home league games without scoring more than twice but Watford have conceded three or more 11 times this season.

Watford's finish to the season has been dismal, with just one point from their last eight games and just ten points from their last 25 games. They're the league's third-lowest scorers and have the third-worst defensive record.

Betting pick: To win both halves - Chelsea (+110) 1 unit

While I expect Chelsea to win convincingly, very few picks offer much value so I'll plump for Chelsea to win both halves. Chelsea have yet to trail at half-time in any home game and have outscored their opponents eight times in their 18 home games in the second half.

Player to watch: Romelu Lukaku

After spending much of the season in the wilderness, Lukaku has been a regular starter to end the season and has scored three goals in his last three league games. Despite just 15 league starts this season, Lukaku has eight goals and is in a great spot to end the campaign with a bang.

Manchester United (+123) at Crystal Palace (+217) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Manchester United

Crystal Palace let a 2-0 lead slip on Thursday as Everton stunned them to secure their league survival. A win would've seen Palace move into tenth place and while they can still finish there, they could end up in 14th. They're unbeaten in their last five home games and have only lost four at home all season.

Manchester United's league season has been historically bad, with the lowest points total and most goals conceded in their EPL history. They were whomped 4-0 at Brighton last time out, over two weeks ago. That break likely hasn't done them any good and they just want the season to end.

Betting pick: Draw no bet - Crystal Palace (+135) 1 unit

This game could easily be a dull goalless draw and has a real "end of season" feel about it. But considering how bad Manchester United have been all season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Palace ending the season with a win so we'll hedge with the draw no bet at plus odds.

Player to watch: Wilfried Zaha

Former Manchester United player Zaha is set to finish the season as Palace's top scorer. He'll likely have no better chance to show up his former team and given Manchester United's struggles at the back this season, Zaha could give whoever he's up against a torrid time.

Southampton (+284) at Leicester City (-113) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 0 Southampton

Leicester City's 1-1 draw at Chelsea on Thursday means they come into the final day of the season on a three-game unbeaten run. They've all but guaranteed a top-10 finish and will leapfrog Wolves into eighth if they win and Wolves don't.

Southampton's season has faded badly, with just one win in their last 11 league games and none in their last five games. They've kept just two clean sheets away from home all season, the last one coming on October 30th, while the 39 goals they've conceded away is the third-most in the league. They can only finish 15th or 16th.

Betting pick: Single game parlay - Leicester City to win and over 1.5 team goals (+110) 1 unit

Leicester are priced lower than I expected and we're going to turn things into plus odds by backing them to also score at least twice. Every season, we see a team run riot on the final day of the season and I can see Leicester running up the score in this one.

Player to watch: Jamie Vardy

Vardy's return from injury has seen him score four goals in his last three games and all but secure himself as Leicester's top scorer for the seventh straight season. He has five goals and four assists in his Premier League career against Southampton (14 goals).

Wolves (+1941) at Liverpool (-626) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 0 Wolves

Liverpool can only become champions if they win coupled with Manchester City failing to beat Aston Villa at home. They are unbeaten a home this season and conceded just eight goals, scoring 46.

Wolves are ending the season in an inauspicious fashion, without a win in their last six games. Their last six away games have been drawn or decided by one goal so they haven't completely capitulated, despite stumbling into the summer.

Betting pick: Handicap - Wolves +2.0 (-101) 1 unit

Wolves have only lost by more than one goal away from home once this season. Seven times they've failed to score on their travels but haven't conceded more than twice in any away league game. Liverpool keeps finding ways to win but in their last 16 games (14 wins and two draws), they've only won by more than two goals twice.

If Manchester City finds themselves comfortably ahead early, expect Liverpool to take off some key players so they're fit for the Champions League final.

Player to watch: Luis Diaz

With Mo Salah unlikely to play due to injury and with the Champions League final next Saturday, Liverpool will want their January signing to keep up his form and at least give them a chance of winning the title should Manchester City slip up.

Aston Villa (+1891) at Manchester City (-650) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 1 Aston Villa

Manchester City could have all but secured the league title if Riyad Mahrez scored a late penalty last weekend at West Ham, but their come-from-behind draw at least means a win on Sunday will see them crowned as champions.

Aston Villa will be motivated by Manager Steven Gerrard (former Liverpool captain) and they pushed his former team close ten days ago, falling to a 2-1 defeat. Their Thursday draw with Burnley means they could still finish tenth themselves but will need a win and other results to go their way.

Betting pick: Both teams to score/Winner - Yes and Manchester City (+210) 0.5 units

I expect Manchester City to complete the job but not without some twists and turns along the way. I've somewhat jokingly predicted that they'll slip up, trail by a goal late on before equalizing and eventually coming up short. But that's not something I'd stake money on. Their defensive injuries could play a part but City should have more than enough firepower to compensate.

Player to watch: Kevin de Bruyne

He's been sensational in recent weeks, carrying his team over the line. With 15 league goals, de Bruyne looks set to be the club's top scorer this season while he's only one assist behind Gabrial Jesus. He's not scored against Aston Villa in the Premier League but does have three assists in four games against them.

Tottenham (-437) at Norwich City (+1191) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Norwich City 0 - 4 Tottenham

Norwich are going down with a whimper. Last week's draw at Wolves ended a five-game losing streak but they have just one win from their last 15 league games and hadn't scored in their previous four games.

Tottenham only needs a point to secure a top-4 finish after last week's controversial win at home to Burnley. They've lost just once in their last ten league games and shouldn't have any problem in seeing off the league's bottom-placed team.

Betting pick: Handicap - Tottenham -2.0 (+105) 1 unit

Tottenham won the reverse fixture 3-0 and despite drawing their last two away games, they've scored three or more in four of their last ten away games and two or more in six of those games. Norwich have lost 12 games at home and their five defeats in their last six home games have seen them concede 19 goals, all of them seeing Norwich ship in at least three goals.

Player to watch: Son Heung-min

Son is one goal behind Salah in the race for the Golden Boot. Given Salah is unlikely to play, Son will surely fancy his chances to score at least one and tie for the league's top scorer and I wouldn't be surprised if he managed to score more than one to win it outright.

Parlays

Moneyline: Leicester City, Arsenal, West Ham United and Crystal Palace (+2382) 0.5 units

Both teams to score: Brentford/Leeds United, Brighton/West Ham United and Manchester City/Aston Villa (+406) 1 unit

*To score anytime: Son Heung-min, Jamie Vardy, Eddie Nketiah and Romelu Lukaku (+1081) 0.5 units

* Void if any player doesn't start the game

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

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