RADIO
The first part of Matchweek 37 certainly helped make up for week 36. Six correct picks from nine games and a +511 parlay all hit. If Wolves found a winner at home to bottom of the table Norwich City, we'd have doubled our money. Instead, we make do with a 164% ROI. Thursday sees three games, two of which have huge implications at the bottom of the table prior to Sunday's season finale.
For Sunday's finale, as we've been doing in recent weeks, we'll be previewing every game. We're still going to offer up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction. But we will also include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
Old Style
- Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
- Match results: 38-49
New Style
- Match results: 28-17
- Total picks: 20-25-0
- Parlays: 3-8-0
- ROI: 95.02% (-2.94 units)
Thursday, May 19th, 2022
Given there are only three games and this stage of the season can really throw up some strange results, we are going to go with slightly higher odds picks but lesser stakes. Especially as we don't want to throw away all the good from the weekend if the games do play out in an unexpected fashion.
Crystal Palace (+331) at Everton (-107) - 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 Crystal Palace
Everton could've secured their survival on Sunday if they had beaten Brentford, but despite leading twice, they succumbed to a 3-2 defeat having played over an hour with ten men. They have some defensive personnel issues but are in the same position whereby a win means they avoid relegation.
Crystal Palace are having a solid end to the season, coming into this game unbeaten in four and knowing a win will see them move into the top-10. They've only managed four away wins all season (seven draws and seven losses) while their 15 draws total is tied for most in the league.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/Winner - Yes & Everton (+318) 0.5 units
The fact Everton can secure their Premier League place with a win in front of their home fans should help them over the line. They likely would've done so on Sunday but the early red card had a huge impact and they still managed to take a 2-1 lead with ten men. As long as they maintain their discipline, they should pick up the win.
Player to watch: Richarlison
I picked Richarlison on Sunday and despite a goal and assist, he couldn't get his team the three points. One more goal will give him ten league goals on the season and he will likely be a catalyst if Everton does manage to pick up all three points.
Burnley (+281) at Aston Villa (+103) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0 - 1 Burnley
Back-to-back defeats have left Burnley in the relegation zone but knowing four points from their remaining two games will guarantee their survival. They can consider themselves unlucky to not have picked up a point at Tottenham on Sunday, hitting the post and conceding the only goal from a controversial penalty.
Aston Villa won the reverse fixture 3-1 less than two weeks ago after its postponement earlier in the season. Since then, they've lost against Liverpool before drawing with Crystal Palace on Sunday. They finish the season at Manchester City and Villa Manager Steven Gerrard may have an eye on doing his former club Liverpool a favor on Sunday.
Betting pick 1: Single game parlay - Double chance Burnley/draw & Burnley over 1.5 cards (+140) 0.5 unit
A defeat will mean survival is out of Burnley's hands and they need help from others so I can see them doing more to ensure a point rather than go for the win. Burnley have had two bookings in each of their last three away games and in five of their last six league games. They are the team in need so are likely to press the issue more and the referee Paul Tierney is averaging more than four cards a game this season.
Betting pick 2: To win either half - Burnley (+125) 0.5 units
Given Burnley's need, if they trail at half-time, they will go all out in the second half and there are plenty of ways the game can go in either direction whereby Burnley manages to win one half, so the odds here are enticing.
Player to watch: Ashley Barnes
Barnes was penalized for a controversial handball on Sunday which saw them lose the game and he hit the post in the second half. He will likely be more determined than ever to right his perceived injustice and he remains a threat from set-plays too.
Leicester City (+783) at Chelsea (-252) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 2 Leicester City
Chelsea could still be overtaken for third place and after suffering a second heartbreaking cup final defeat this season, could go into the game still suffering the effects of last Saturday. They've won just once in their last five games at home, a last-minute 1-0 win against West Ham United.
Leicester have won their last two games, both against the already relegated teams, scoring eight goals in the process. You need to go back to December 28th for their last league win against a team currently in the top half but the end of their European campaign seems to have galvanized them for a late-season flourish.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Handicap Leicester City +2.5 & Over 2.5 total goals (+180) 0.5 units
This is a game I can see any type of scoreline occurring in. We've seen Chelsea get thumped at home recently, we've seen Leicester win big and lose big this season but I think we see an upset in a high-scoring game. Leicester will be able to play with freedom and I'm willing to back them covering a 2-goal spread.
Player to watch: Jamie Vardy
Vardy is responsible for scoring four of Leicester's eight goals in their last two games and is set to be the club's top scorer for the seventh straight season. He still has enough pace to trouble defenses and Chelsea could still be feeling the effects of two hours of football, in the heat at the large Wembley pitch on Saturday.
Parlays
Total goals: Everton/Crystal Palace over 1.5. Chelsea/Leicester City over 1.5 & Aston Vila/Burnley under 3.5 (+108) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
