RADIO
Despite another week picking 60% of correct results, including Liverpool dropping points at home, we made a loss on our picks. It was a reminder of how small the margins are between making and losing money as one more goal in the Crystal Palace versus Watford game would've left us with a tidy profit. Unfortunately, despite 22 shots and the woodwork being hit, the game ended 1-0 and we wound up with a loss. But, we have six-midweek fixtures so hopefully, our luck changes for the better.
For the remainder of this season, we'll be previewing every game. We're still going to offer up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction. But we will also include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
Old Style
- Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
- Match results: 38-49
New Style
- Match results: 18-12
- Total picks: 13-17-0
- Parlays: 2-5-0
- ROI: 90.95% (-3.44 units)
Tuesday, May 10th, 2022
Liverpool (-213) at Aston Villa (+637) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0 - 1 Liverpool
Following the draw with Tottenham on Saturday, Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp conceded the title to Manchester City. That's still a little premature with a three-point deficit and three games left but with an FA Cup final this week and a Champions League final at the end of May, their focus may be shifting away from the league.
Aston Villa made it back-to-back league wins by consigning Burnley to a first league defeat in five games on Saturday. They now have a chance for a top-10 finish and will move into the top-half of the table if Steven Gerrard's side can beat his former team.
Betting pick: Handicap - Aston Villa +1.5 (-144) 1.5 units
Liverpool had kept four three consecutive clean sheets in the league prior to Saturday's 1-1 draw and their form is showing signs of fading in the league. Understandable given their schedule. I fancy them to squeak out a win but I expect a lot of changes to their starting lineup following Klopp's comments (and Manchester City's 5-0 win).
Liverpool haven't won an away game in any competition by more than two goals since January 12th (17 games ago). Of those 17 games, the home team would've covered the +1.5 on ten occasions. I'm expecting Villa to make a game of it and depending on the lineup Liverpool puts out, the home side could all but end the title race on Tuesday.
Player to watch: Diogo Jota
If Liverpool does rest any of their front three, Jota will likely get the start up front and despite limited playing time this season (24 starts), Jota has 15 goals and three assists. He could be the key to keeping Liverpool's quadruple hopes alive.
Wednesday, May 11th, 2022
Chelsea (-142) at Leeds United (+382) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Chelsea
Chelsea blew a two-goal lead at home to Wolves on Saturday and the 2-2 draw now means their third-place position is in some doubt. They face Liverpool in the FA Cup final on Saturday and the chance for silverware may mean so more changes to a starting XI that is already a fluid one.
Leeds looked in disarray at Arsenal on Sunday, trailing 2-0 at half-time and down a player following Luke Ayling's straight red card for a ridiculous two-footed lunge. But, they showed character in the second half and could've nicked a point late. But the 2-1 defeat leaves them inside the relegation zone and in desperate need of at least a point on Wednesday.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-138) 1.5 units
Leeds thin squad is being stretched to the limit and goals are hard to come by, with Saturday's goal being their first in three games. But Chelsea only have one clean sheet in their last five games and contrived to concede two against the league's fourth-lowest scorers in Wolves at the weekend.
Player to watch: Jack Harrison
Harrison will likely have plenty of suitors this Summer should Leeds get relegated and his run of scoring in three consecutive games helped Leeds keep their survival hopes alive. Since then, he's not scored in the last three games but he could be crucial for the remainder of the season and Leeds haven't lost a game he's scored in (five games).
Norwich City (+601) at Leicester City (-219) - 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 1 Norwich City
Leicester's season is ending with a whimper. Sunday's 2-1 defeat at home to Everton comes on the back of their semi-final Europa Conference exit and they now find themselves in 14th place and without a win in their last five league games.
Norwich have already been relegated and I was made to look foolish on Sunday after expecting them to play with some freedom and get a result at home to West Ham United. They lost 4-0. Head Coach Dean Smith might use the remaining games to try out some youngsters as he begins preparation for next season in the Championship.
Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+122) 1 unit
Norwich are the league's lowest scorers with just 22 all season, ten away from home and none in their last three games. But Leicester's defense is generally dreadful and only five teams have conceded more than the 56 they have shipped in. Seven of Leicester's last eight games have seen both teams score.
Player to watch: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
The emergence of Dewsbury-Hall has been one of the few bright spots for Leicester this season and the 58 shot-creating actions he's produced in the league this season is third-most of any Leicester player. He's someone who should be able to shine against the league's worst team.
Everton (-115) at Watford (+343) - 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 2 Everton
Watford's relegation was finally confirmed on Saturday in their 1-0 defeat at Crystal Palace. It was a performance of a team that had already resigned themselves to their fate and they were lucky to come away with just a one-goal loss.
Everton's revival continued with their 2-1 win at Leicester making it back-to-back league wins, the first time they've achieved that since matchweeks three and four. Another win will guarantee a four-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Everton (-115) 1 unit
Watford's performances have been appalling recently with six straight league defeats and an aggregate score of 3-15. The seven points they've taken at home are the fewest in the league and they've lost their last 11 home EPL games. Everton should be able to take advantage in such a crucial game for them.
Player to watch: Richarlison
He didn't score on Sunday but remains Everton's top-scorer this season with eight goals. Half of those goals have come in his last six games and he could be the difference-maker on Wednesday and for the remainder of the season.
Manchester City (-368) at Wolves (+1289) - 3:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 2 Manchester City
Manchester City put their Champions League semi-final heartbreak behind them with a comprehensive 5-0 win at home to Newcastle United, giving them a three-point lead at the top of the table. They can't win the league on Wednesday but a win will mean four points from their remaining two games would guarantee they repeat as EPL Champions.
Wolves looked like a team already on their Summer holidays in recent weeks and then 2-0 down at Chelsea. But they fought back to win a point to end a run of three straight league defeats without scoring. But I think Saturday's result might be an anomaly and another loss without scoring is on the cards.
Betting pick: Manchester City to win to nil? - Yes (-103) 1 unit
Only three teams have scored fewer than Wolves (18) at home and their two goals at the weekend were as much about Chelsea's defensive problems as much as Wolves attacking prowess. Manchester City have conceded just eight goals away from home and they've kept a clean sheet in their last five away EPL games.
Player to watch: Aymeric Laporte
Center-back Ruben Dias left Sunday's game with an apparent injury, leaving Laporte as their one regular central defender. He scored his fourth league goal of the season and is a threat from set-pieces but will be crucial for City defensively if they are without Dias.
Thursday, May 12th, 2022
Arsenal (+251) at Tottenham Hotspur (+115) - 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 - 1 Arsenal
Tottenham picked up an admirable point at Liverpool on Saturday but still need to win this game to realistically have a shot of a top-4 finish. With two very winnable games left after Thursday, they'll fancy their chances of finishing the season strongly and a win will put Arsenal under serious pressure in their remaining two games.
Arsenal nearly chucked away a two-goal lead against Leeds ten-men on Sunday, but managed to scrape their second consecutive 2-1 win and know a win on Thursday secures a top-4 finish and a return to Champions League football next season.
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+108) 1 unit
I'm backing the home team to win as they have to get the three points. A point would leave them having just an outside chance of finishing fourth but Arsenal would gladly take a point. If the game is level late on, expect a Tottenham onslaught and Arsenal's recent defensive troubles (without a clean sheet in seven games) don't fill me with any confidence they'll withstand it.
That scenario could leave the home team vulnerable to late counter-attacks so I'm leaning away from backing a winner. Instead, I expect goals in a fixture that hasn't had a 0-0 scoreline since 2009. Four of the last five meetings have seen both teams score and three or more total goals. The only other time was 2-0.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Despite only scoring 13 goals this season and one goal in his last seven games, Kane will be relishing the opportunity to face Arsenal. We've mentioned the away team's recent defensive issues which coincide with having to play either Cedric Soares or Nuno Tavares at full-back (both of whom are weak links).
And Kane has 11 goals in 14 EPL games against Arsenal. He has only one goal in their last four meetings but I expect Tottenham will get plenty of joy down whichever flank Takehiro Tomiyasu isn't defending, leading to chances that Kane will surely relish.
Parlays
Both teams to score: Leeds United/Chelsea, Tottenham/Arsenal (+178) 1 unit
Moneyline: Everton & Leicester City (+171) 1 unit
Moneyline: Everton, Leicester City & Tottenham Hotspur (+483) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
More Betting and DFS Picks
