RADIO
A solid start to our new format last week. Some of our players to watch found the back of the net and kept clean sheets, we predicted three correct scores and got six correct results from the ten games. Unfortunately, we were let down by a couple of goalless draws in games we predicted at least three goals in but all-in-all, we ended with the smallest possible loss of 0.01 units.
For the remainder of this season, we're expanding our coverage of the EPL schedule. Rather than focusing on a small number of games each week, we'll be previewing every game. We're still going to offer up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction. But we will also include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
Old Style
- Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
- Match results: 38-49
New Style
- Match results: 6-4
- Total picks: 5-5-0
- Parlays: 1-2-0
- ROI: -0.01 units (99.92%)
Saturday, April 30th, 2022
Liverpool (-226) at Newcastle United (+682) - 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 - 2 Liverpool
Newcastle moved into the top half of the table last weekend and condemned Norwich to near-certain relegation with an emphatic 3-0 away win. They now have to face a title-chasing team and as impressive as their form has been under Eddie Howe, I don't see Newcastle making it five straight league wins here.
Liverpool dispatched local rivals Everton 2-0 last weekend and had the same scoreline in their Champions League semi-final first leg on Wednesday (against Villareal). It seems a bit harsh having them play the early game after a Wednesday night match but they should be able to grind this one out.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - 2nd half (-105) 1 unit
Statistically, these two teams have quite even numbers of goals in each half of their games. But I'm going for the second half being the highest-scoring half due to how I foresee this game playing out. Liverpool were kept out for an hour last week against Everton before grinding out a win and it was a similar story on Wednesday.
This will be Liverpool's third game in seven days and while I believe they will have enough to win the game (possibly their depth on the bench will make a difference). Newcastle will make it difficult for them, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was goalless at the break before the visitors find a way to win late on.
Player to watch: Diogo Jota
Jota didn't play in midweek after starting against Everton and I believe Liverpool will want to try and keep their forwards as fresh as possible, leading to one of Salah, Mane or Luiz not starting. It was Luiz who started on the bench last Sunday (after I picked him as a player to watch) but whoever it is on Saturday, I fancy Jota to score like he did in the reverse fixture. Assuming he starts the game of course.
Norwich City (+731) at Aston Villa (-243) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 0 Norwich City
Aston Villa ended a run of four straight defeats with a 0-0 draw at Leicester last weekend. With nothing to play for other than league position, I'm surprised Aston Villa are such heavy favorites, especially given they've only won four of their 14 league games in the calendar year.
The odds are largely down to Norwich, and their 3-0 defeat last weekend likely ended any fading hopes of survival. A defeat coupled with a Burnley win will relegate Norwich officially but outside of last week's defeat, they have been showing some battling qualities and I doubt they go down without a fight.
Betting pick: Handicap - Norwich City +1.5 (-135) 1 unit
It's hard to back a team bottom of the table to win or even draw, especially given they have scored just ten away goals (16 games). But Norwich is managed by Dean Smith, who was sacked by Aston Villa earlier in the season so a revenge game is on the cards. And Norwich generally keep things tight against weaker opposition. They've played nine games in 2022 against teams currently in the bottom half and only three times have they lost by two or more goals.
Player to watch: Ollie Watkins
While some Villa players look like they're already on their Sumer holidays, Watkins will want to impress as some bigger clubs continue to be linked with a transfer and he'll want to finish the season strongly to stay in contention for a place in the England squad. He scored and assisted when these teams last met.
Crystal Palace (+217) at Southampton (+142) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Speaking of teams looking like they're on the beach, these two both have just one win from their last five games (strangely both came against Arsenal). Southampton did fight back from 2-0 down to draw at Brighton last weekend so maybe I'm writing them off a little too soon.
Crystal Palace also drew last time out, a goalless game with Leeds. They've now failed to score in their last three games in all competitions and lost their last two away games. Despite being two points behind their opponents, they actually have a goal difference of +2 compared to Southampton's -16.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+242) 0.5 units
I hate games like this as if one team doesn't turn up, it could end three or four nil either way. But there's no way to know which (if either of these teams) is already thinking of their holidays so I'll sit on the fence a bit and go for a tight and relatively non-eventful game that ends with the points being shared.
Player to watch: Marc Guéhi
Guéhi has been a revelation this year, earning his first England cap in March and becoming a mainstay at the back for Palace, despite being just 21-years-old. If Palace are to win this game, they will likely need to keep a clean sheet and with Ward-Prowse so prominent at set-pieces, he'll need to put in a man-of-the-match-level performance if they are to get something from the game.
Burnley (+182) at Watford (+166) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Watford 0 - 1 Burnley
Burnley looked down and out a few weeks ago but since sacking long-term manager Sean Dyche, they've won back-to-back games without conceding. Burnley's only defeat in their last five games came against bottom of the table Norwich so they'll want to ensure it's not a similar tale against second from bottom.
Watford can't mathematically get relegated this weekend but a home defeat to Burnley will all but seal the inevitable. They come into this game on the back of four straight league defeats, conceding 12 in that time. Their seven points at home (two wins and one draw) are the fewest of any team in the league.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Burnley (+101) 1 unit
While I fancy Burnley to keep rolling on, I'm not confident enough to back them outright. The odds allow us to hedge and play the 'draw not bet' (refunding our stake if the game ends in a draw). They played out a goalless draw earlier this season and I wouldn't be surprised by another, although Watford will have to press for a late winner if they're level which could lead to a counter-attacking goal for Burnley.
Player to watch: Connor Roberts
The Welsh full-back has become a key player for Burnley in recent weeks and scored his first goal of the season against Southampton two games ago (a beautiful left-footed curler). Interim manager Michael Jackson seems to be pushing him forward more and I expect the same on Saturday.
Brighton (+187) at Wolves (+175) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 1 Brighton
Wolves could still finish in seventh place and claim a spot in European competition next season, but have just one win from their last four league games and come into the weekend on the back of two consecutive losses.
Brighton's mini resurgence continued with a 2-2 draw against Southampton last weekend, although they'll feel aggrieved at not taking all three points after leading 2-0. Brighton's only loss in their last five games came away at league leaders Manchester City.
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (+158) 1 unit
Given these two have combined for just 65 goals this season and rank 16th and 17th in goals scored respectively, coupled with Wolves having the fourth-best defensive record, this may seem an odd choice. But there's a method behind the apparent madness.
Wolves last seven home games have totaled 22 goals with five of them seeing three or more goals scored. Of Brighton's 31 goals scored, 19 have come away from home and three of their last four away games have seen three or more goals scored. Both teams to score is also something I'd be happy going for.
Player to watch: Fabio Silva
This one is a pure shot in the dark, swing for the fences play. Silva has yet to score this season in 20 games (five starts) but the teenager has started the last three games and registered seven shots in those matches. If he does score this season, at home to Brighton seems like the most probable time to do so.
Manchester City (-301) at Leeds United (+830) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 0 - 2 Manchester City
Like Liverpool, Manchester City finds themselves facing an opponent they should beat but the game is sandwiched between their Champions League semi-final games. Manchester City won the first leg on Tuesday 4-3 at home to Real Madrid and their second leg is on Wednesday so they have an extra day before and after this game which could be crucial.
Leeds played out a hard-fought 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace last Monday, a point that leaves them five clear of the relegation zone. They've now conceded just eight goals in their last seven games under new Head Coach Jesse Marsch. They had conceded 60 in their previous 26 games including seven at Manchester City.
Betting pick: Team total cards - Leeds United over 2.5 (+125) 1 unit
The odds for a City win aren't very appealing and given they've scored 30 goals on the road and 50 at home, I don't expect a big margin of victory. I can see a scenario whereby it ends goalless but I'm going to play the cards market instead.
Leeds United (93) are the most booked team in the league while Manchester City (37) are the least penalized. Leeds have only been shown three bookings in their last three games but have 23 in their last six home games. Referee Paul Tierney averages 4.1 yellow cards per game. Leeds most cards at -135 is also appealing.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
This one backfired last weekend as Gabriel Jesus stole the show, scoring four times. Sterling played the 90 minutes in that game but only came on as a late substitute in midweek so I expect him to start again this weekend and possibly add to the ten EPL goals he's scored this season.
Sunday, May 01st, 2022
Chelsea (-129) at Everton (+399) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 2 Chelsea
Everton's loss at local rivals Liverpool last weekend left them in the relegation zone and in serious danger of dropping out of England's top flight for the first time in over 60 years. They do have a game in hand on the teams directly above them but have taken just ten points from 15 games in 2022.
Chelsea followed up last weekend's 1-0 win at West Ham with a 1-1 draw at Manchester United on Thursday. They should've been out of sight at half-time against Manchester United, but David de Gea somehow kept them at bay in the first half.
Betting pick: Most booking points - Everton (-110) 1 unit
Everton's 74 yellow cards this season are the third most while Chelsea's 52 ranked 15th. Everton's had 23 yellow cards and three red cards in their last seven games while Chelsea have only been shown more than one card once in their last four games. Everton are fighting for their footballing lives so I expect them to try and get stuck into Chelsea, spurred on by their fans and pick up more bookings than the visitors.
Player to watch: Kai Havertz
Havertz got the assist for Chelsea's goal on Thursday and has four goals in his last four away games. While he still hasn't had consistent form throughout the season, he has shown in patches his quality and is a match-winner on his day.
Leicester City (+627) at Tottenham (-217) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 0 Leicester City
Two weeks ago I warned about still not trusting Tottenham despite 25 goals scored in seven games. Since then, they've not scored in back-to-back games, failing to register a shot on target in either of them. Just like their goal-scoring streak was due to end, their goalless run should be over this weekend also.
Leicester City played the first leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final on Thursday (drawing 1-1 with Roma) and their recent league form suggests that is the focus of their attention. Leicester has one win from their last five league games and only three away wins all season (just one from their last 11 away games).
Betting pick: To score anytime - Harry Kane (-120) 1 unit
Kane's record against Leicester is remarkable with 16 goals in 13 EPL games against Sunday's opponent. He's scored in four of the last five meetings between these two in the league and likely wouldn't have picked any other opponent to try and end a five-game drought against.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
See above. Despite not scoring in his last five games, he has five assists and Leicester have conceded the second most penalties this season so there are plenty of routes to success for Kane in fantasy.
Arsenal (-126) at West Ham United (+361) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 2 Arsenal
Like Leicester, West Ham had a semi-final first leg to contend with on Thursday (losing 2-1 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt). It's a competition that would see them qualify for next season's Champions League if they win it. With a shortage in defense, they may need to throw caution to the wind in the league and retain their main focus in Europe, especially having to overturn a deficit on the road.
Arsenal followed three straight league defeats with wins against Chelsea and Manchester United, scoring seven goals in the process. After remaining quite solid defensively for most of the season, they appear to be going more gung-ho and with Eddie Nketiah now starting upfront, they have a striker actually capable of contributing to their attacks which has led to an improvement in their attacking performances.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-126) 1 unit
Between West Ham's defensive crisis and Arsenal's full-backs having 'brain farts' on a regular basis, it's hard to see anything other than goals in this game. Arsenal could welcome back Takehiro Tomiyasu at right-back but they will be without Partey and Tierney still and haven't looked the same defensively without that pair.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen
If Bowen starts on Sunday, he will likely play on the right side of West Ham's attack and face off against Cedric or Tavares, the pair regularly having the aforementioned 'brain farts'. Bowen is West Ham's leading scorer in the league with nine and would fancy making it double-digits should he start the game against whomever Arsenal starts in place of the injured Tierney at left-back. In truth, whoever starts out wide on the right for West Ham is someone I'd be targeting to play in fantasy.
Monday, May 02nd, 2022
Brentford (+376) at Manchester United (-136) - 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 1 Brentford
The weekend fixtures conclude on Monday with Brentford seeking to add to Manchester United's misery. Brentford's draw with Tottenham last weekend made it four consecutive games unbeaten in the league and although Christian Eriksen's 100% winning record as a starter ended, he's still yet to taste defeat when starting for Brentford.
Manchester United's draw against Chelsea made it just one win from their last six league games and that was against bottom of the table Norwich City. The expected goals (xG) score from Thursday's game was Manchester United 0.42 - 2.09 Chelsea and they were thankful to David de Gea for keeping Chelsea to just one goal.
Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+121) 1 unit
Each of Brentford's last five away games have seen both teams score and at least three goals scored. Ten of their 17 away games this season have had that happen. They have two clean sheets away from home and none in their last 14 away games. Liverpool and Manchester City are the only teams to stop Brentford from scoring in their last eight away games. Manchester United's last four home games have seen both teams score.
Player to watch: Cristiano Ronaldo
Despite United's miserable season, Ronaldo continues to find the net regularly, with 17 goals in 28 league games this season (13 goals in 17 games at home). Prior to Thursday, Ronaldo had consecutive hat-tricks at home and has now scored eight goals in five games. If Manchester United are to avoid another embarrassment, he'll likely need to be the talisman again.
Parlays
Draw no bet: Wolves and Burnley (+280) 1 unit
To score anytime: Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo (+258) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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