RADIO
Last weekend was a nice bounceback after a bad Matchweek 32. Tottenham were shocked at home by Brighton, which saw us bag nothing, but we followed that up with back-to-back winning games to finish the weekend. Brentford and Newcastle both grabbed 95th-minute winners to net us a profit, which included two correct score predictions too.
Moving forward, we're expanding our coverage of the EPL fixtures. Rather than focusing on a small number of games each week, we'll be previewing every game. We're still going to offer up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction. But we will also include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
- Match results: 38-49
Saturday, April 23rd, 2022
Manchester United (+258) at Arsenal (+114) - 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Manchester United
Arsenal ended a run of three straight defeats by beating third-placed Chelsea away on Wednesday, running out 4-2 winners. Meanwhile, Manchester United's hopes of finishing fourth took a blow on Tuesday, being comprehensively beaten at Liverpool 4-0.
Manchester United have just one league win from their last four games (against bottom of the table Norwich) and have lost their last three away EPL games. Arsenal continues to be an enigma, winning when they are expected to lose and losing when strong favorites.
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (-112) - 1 unit
It's hard to see Manchester United winning games right now, although the same could be said of Arsenal before they went to Chelsea and won. While the home team should be able to take advantage of Manchester United's poor form, I'm backing the goals market. They played out a 3-2 scoreline earlier in the season too.
Player to watch: Eddie Nketiah
Alexandre Lacazette has been in dreadful form and an illness saw him miss last weekend's defeat at Southampton. Nketiah didn't make the most of a rare start then but scored twice at Chelsea and offered an infinite amount more of an attacking threat than Lacazette has all season. He should be in line to start again and could capitalize on a suspect United defense.
Aston Villa (+155) at Leicester City (+195) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Aston Villa
Leicester conceded a 95th-minute winner at Newcastle last weekend before conceding a 93rd-minute equalizer at Everton on Wednesday. Aston Villa comes into this game on the back of four straight league defeats but have had two weeks to recuperate.
Leicester are unbeaten in their last five home league games, winning three straight coming into this game. Aston Villa have six wins and ten defeats in away games this season. Of those six wins, Brighton (10th) and Manchester United (6th) are the only teams currently in the top-10 of the table.
Betting pick: Both to score - Yes (-160) - 1.5 units
Leicester have the first leg of their Europa Conference semi-final on Thursday but they've tended to play a mostly strong team in the league still. They have rotated their team a bit but have solid depth in attacking areas. Neither team has played out a 0-0 draw in the league this season and I expect them both to find the net on Saturday. Leicester's odds are a little high so taking them to win (especially in a parlay) makes sense.
Player to watch: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
The Leicester City youngster has started their last 11 league games and has been playing in a more advanced role recently. He's not had the hype of some teammates but has put in Man Of The Match type performances in their last three games.
Watford (+2673) at Manchester City (-787) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Watford
Manchester City will be eyeing up their Champions League semi-final first league against Real Madrid on Tuesday but have a ridiculous amount of depth in their squad so if they do rotate their lineup, it should still be significantly better than Watford and they should cruise this game.
Watford's stay in the Premier League looks all but over and defeat here will leave them seven points adrift with 15 points available. Their record away from home is better than at home but it's difficult to find a case for them getting anything from this game.
Betting pick: Handicap - Manchester City -2.5 (-108) - 1 unit
In fifteen home league games, Manchester City have won by at least a three-goal margin on six occasions. They have played the other four teams occupying the bottom five places in the league and have an aggregate score of 17-0 against them. They beat up on the worst teams regularly.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
Sterling has only started five of Manchester City's ten Champions League games and was an unused substitute in their game with Brighton on Wednesday so it's safe to believe he'll be a starter against Watford. He has ten goals in 25 EPL games (19 starts) which include two penalties. As a midfielder in most formats, he's also eligible to score points for a clean sheet.
Newcastle United (+123) at Norwich City (+260) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Norwich City 1 - 1 Newcastle United
A couple of months ago, this game looked like it would be a relegation do-or-die match. As things currently stand, Newcastle are only outside the top-10 on goal difference while Norwich are rooted to the foot of the table, eight points adrift of safety and seemingly certainties for relegation.
Norwich are still battling and their only defeat in their last three games was a 3-2 loss at Manchester United, a game in which they fought back from 2-0 down to level before succumbing to a Ronaldo winner.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-131) - 1 unit
It's a difficult game to call but Norwich (12) have only picked up one point at home less than Newcastle (13) have away. Newcastle's three-game winning streak all come from home games and prior to that spell, they'd lost the previous three games (all away).
Norwich have scored in five of their last six home games but their 2-0 win at home to Burnley in their last home game was their first clean sheet at home in nine games. In 16 away games, Newcastle have just two clean sheets but scored in 11 of the fixtures.
Player to watch: Bruno Guimaraes
The Brazilian has endeared himself to the Geordies through his tenacious play and if there's one thing they love in Newcastle, it's a cult figure. He scored both goals in their 2-1 win last weekend and picked up an assist on Wednesday. If Newcastle does get something from this game, he will likely be heavily involved.
Tottenham (-114) at Brentford (+340) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 2 Tottenham
Tottenham's winning streak came to a surprising end last weekend with a 1-0 defeat at home to Brighton. They had scored 25 goals in their previous seven EPL games but I alluded to the fact their expected goals (xG) was significantly less so at some point, that was due.
Brentford comes into the weekend riding a three-game win streak which has pulled them away from the relegation zone. Last weekend also made it five wins from the five games in which Eriksen has started since joining in January (more on him shortly).
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (-114) 1 unit
Like their North London neighbors Arsenal, it's hard to trust Tottenham on a week-to-week basis. I can make a case for all three outcomes so I'll sit on the fence somewhat and predict a draw, but I'm not confident to lay money on any outcome. Brentford have scored 14 goals in their last six games and we've mentioned Tottenham's recent glut of goals so it's reasonable to expect we see some goals in this contest.
Player to watch: Christian Eriksen
Eriksen will aim to make it six wins from six starts and this game will be all the more poignant after spending seven seasons with Tottenham. After his miraculous return to football, would you bet against him scoring against his former club? I sure wouldn't.
Sunday, April 24th, 2022
Southampton (+278) at Brighton (+119) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Southampton
Brighton's two wins against the North London duo has left them clear of safety while Southampton picked up their own win against Arsenal last weekend. In truth, both teams' victories against Arsenal were largely down to their opponents' incompetence but these two did look well-drilled and organized in their encounters.
Brighton have won just three home games all season while Southampton have won just three away games, combining for a goal difference of -27. Brighton's 10 goals scored at home are the fewest in the league and they've been blanked nine times at home (16 games).
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+233) 0.5 units
These two teams have combined for 25 draws this season (65 games) and played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this ends in another draw. Given the odds, I'd be fine speculating on the away team picking up the win as underdogs but they lost on Thursday at Burnley and don't look particularly competent on the road.
Player to watch: James Ward-Prowse
The Southampton captain has seven goals and four assists on the season and if you've seen him take free-kicks and corners, you'd wonder why he's not got double those amounts. Brighton have conceded the fifth most fouls this season so he'll likely to get a chance or two to add to those stats.
Wolves (+192) at Burnley (+176) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 0 Wolves
Wolves have found themselves just three points behind seventh place and a place in next season's Europa Conference League. Burnley sacked long-term manager Sean Dyche last week and have yet to appoint a permanent replacement but their win against Southampton on Thursday night leaves them just a point behind Everton and safety from relegation.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2 (+100) 1 unit
Both teams are low scoring with Burnley (28) ranking 19th in goals scored and Wolves (33) ranking 16th. Only 31% of Wolves games have seen three or more goals (second-fewest) while only 34% of Burnley's games have had three or more goals (third-fewest).
The reverse fixture saw them play out a goalless draw with an expected goals scored total of 0.9 between the two teams. Burnley has a great chance to be out of the bottom three by the end of the weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if they grind out a narrow win.
Player to watch: Nick Pope
Burnley's stopper put in a Man Of The Match performance at West Ham last week as Burnley managed to pick up a point on the road and they may need to call on the England international to keep them in the game as they likely won't be able to score enough to win the game if they let anything in at the other end.
West Ham United (+568) at Chelsea (-190) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 2 West Ham United
West Ham may have eyes on their Europa League semi-final first leg tie on Thursday but that has been a theme throughout the season and they still find themselves in seventh place. Chelsea followed up their FA Cup semi-final victory with a 4-2 home defeat against an Arsenal team that had lost their prior three games.
It's safe to say, neither team's form is consistent enough to warrant too much confidence in this one and Chelsea have now lost their last three home games in all competitions, conceding 11 goals. West Ham have lost their last three away EPL games and their last road win in the league came on New Year's Day (six games ago).
Betting pick: Draw no bet - West Ham United (+419) - 1 unit
West Ham's away form and Chelsea's home form make both sides perfectly capable of losing this one, but as they both can't lose, I'd rather hedge the underdog taking the draw no bet option. West Ham are priced too high for me and this is a case of trying to take advantage of the high odds while safeguarding against the draw. I'd also be fine taking the over for the total goals line.
Player to watch: Mason Mount
The England international has been in great form with four goals and three assists in his last four games in all competitions. When these teams met in December, West Ham ran out 3-2 winners but Mount scored and assisted for Chelsea.
Everton (+1699) at Liverpool (-543) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 0 Everton
The Merseyside derby hasn't been played too often with the sides so far apart in the table. Separated by 15 places and 49 points, it's easy to see why Liverpool are such strong favourites. Liverpool are unbeaten at home in the league and Everton have just one away win to their name all season.
Liverpool do have a Champions League semi-final on Wednesday, against Villareal but have a chance to secure an unprecedented quadruple. It's highly unlikely they lose ground in the title race at home to their fiercest rivals, with the added bonus of being able to push them closer to relegation.
Betting pick: Total cards - Over 3.5 (-120) 1 unit
This game has a history of strong tackles, fiesty challenges and generally being a battle. While that's changed somewhat in recent times, their encounter earlier in the season saw a total of seven yellow cards shown. Everton have been shown 18 yellow cards and three red cards in their last six games so could hit the match total on their own.
Player to watch: Luis Diaz
Diaz has been outstanding since joining Liverpool and capped off his midweek performance with a goal and an assist. In eight EPL games (seven starts), he has three goals and an assist while his energy and work rate has endeared him to the home fans quickly. Mo Salah and Sadio Mane continue to get the plaudits but Diaz has a chance to upstage them both in a derby game which should suit his style of play.
Monday, April 25th, 2022
Leeds United (+260) at Crystal Palace (+111) - 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Leeds United
Crystal Palace's season is fading into obscurity. They find themselves in 14th place following back-to-back league defeats and exited the FA Cup at the semi-final stage last weekend. Despite having a goal difference at home of +8, they've only won one more game than they've lost.
After a run of just one point in eight games, Leeds have picked up ten points from their last four games. Their four-game goalless streak ended too and they've netted nine times in their four-game unbeaten run.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - Second half (-110) 1 unit
In 16 home games this season, Crystal Palace have failed to score in the first half on ten occasions. Despite having conceded more away goals than anyone else in the league (38), Leeds have kept seven clean sheets in the first half of their 16 away games.
I expect Crystal Palace will stop their run of losses but I'm more inclined to play the halves market and back the second half being the highest scoring.
Player to watch: Wilfried Zaha
Despite not getting the plaudits he has had in recent seasons, Zaha is finishing the season strong. He's scored five goals in his last seven league games and is Palace's penalty taker. The home team will be looking to their talisman to get their season back on track.
Parlays
Both teams to score: Newcastle United/Norwich City and Aston Villa/Leicester City (+187) 1 unit
Total goals over 2.5: Tottenham/Brentford and West Ham United/Chelsea (+240) 1 unit
Moneyline: Burnley, Liverpool and Manchester City to win (+268) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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