RADIO
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It was an "oh so nearly" weekend for us to kick off the season. Leicester City blew a 2-0 lead at home in the second half to draw 2-2 (although they did hit the woodwork twice) and deny us what would have been a good profit to start the season. A goal from either Aston Villa or West Ham United would've seen us break even as well, so frustrating to begin the campaign but that's why we start off with smaller stakes to begin the season with.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 4-6
- Total picks: 4-6
- Parlays: 0-1
- ROI: 73.83% (-1.57 units)
Saturday, August 13th, 2022
Everton (+380) at Aston Villa (-121) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Everton
It was a disappointing opening weekend for Aston Villa, falling to a 2-0 defeat at newly promoted Bournemouth. It was an uphill battle for Villa after going behind in the second minute and despite 66% possession and 15 shots (only two on target), they failed to find the back of the net.
It looks like being another long and arduous season for Everton. Defeat at home to Chelsea wasn't a surprise but it was overshadowed by a serious leg injury suffered by Ben Godfrey and their thin squad is even more depleted coming into this weekend.
Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+150) 0.5 units
Villa at home is a different animal from the one on the road. Last season, the 29 goals Villa conceded at home was the fourth most. Of their 19 home games, 11 of them saw three or more goals and both teams scored 11 times. I'm not convinced by Everton's attacking threat but Villa's defensive frailties should be enough to see the away team find a goal.
Player to watch: Ollie Watkins
Last season's top scorer for Villa didn't start last weekend but will expect to be in the starting XI on Saturday. With only around a dozen games to impress England Head Coach Gareth Southgate and earn a place in the World Cup squad, Watkins will be keen to get his season goal tally up and running.
Leicester City (+595) at Arsenal (-201) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 1 Leicester City
Arsenal kicked off the season with a solid 2-0 win at Crystal Palace. It was already a significant improvement on last season's fixture, which they lost 3-0 in April. New signings Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko looked good and returning loanee William Saliba put in a Man of the Match performance on his Arsenal debut.
Leicester blew a 2-0 lead at home to Brentford as their defensive concerns appear to continue into this season. After conceding 59 goals last season (seventh most), Leicester's captain and goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel left the club and they have yet to bring in any new faces.
Betting pick: Both players to score - Jamie Vardy and Gabriel Jesus (+700) 0.5 units
It's hard to back Leicester City for much right now and the odds in this game don't really favor much so we'll take a long shot as we're still treading lightly in the early going. Jesus was unlucky not to score last weekend while Vardy has five goals in five away games against Arsenal and 11 in 14 total (more than any other EPL team).
Player to watch: Gabrielle Martinelli
While Gabriel Jesus has all the attention following his summer move, it was Martinelli who got the first goal of the Premier League season last Friday and he will no doubt love to keep his goal-scoring form up to seal his place in Brazil's World Cup squad.
Newcastle United (+206) at Brighton (+152) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Newcastle United
Brighton stunned Manchester United last Sunday, winning 2-1 at Old Trafford and frankly, it should've been a more comfortable scoreline for the visitors. As well as they played, Manchester United looked abject and I doubt Newcastle will make things so easy this week.
Newcastle's turnaround in form last year was based on a solid defensive unit. Since January 01st, the only teams to have scored more than once against them finished in the top-4, and they started the season with a clean sheet victory at home to newly promoted Nottingham Forest.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+236) 0.5 units
Given Newcastle's recent defensive solidity, it's hard for me to see Brighton score more than once and Newcastle should have enough in attack to find a goal themselves, although I can easily see this game being the first goalless encounter of the season. Two evenly matched teams could easily play out a draw here.
Player to watch: Leandro Trossard
Trossard was Brighton's joint top scorer last season with eight league goals and while he didn't find the net last weekend, he was a major contributor to Brighton's win. He scored in the 1-1 draw in this fixture last season and registered seven shots in the two games against Newcastle last campaign.
Bournemouth (+3859) at Manchester City (-1277) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 0 Bournemouth
Manchester City got their title defense up and running with a comfortable 2-0 win at West Ham last Sunday. In truth, they never really got out of second gear but new star striker Erling Haaland bagged a brace and they look primed to mount a successful title defense.
Bournemouth picked up a 2-0 win at home to Aston Villa which will be a big lift as they face Arsenal and Liverpool after this weekend. They could see these three upcoming games as "free-hits" and give it a go, although they won't want to take heavy defeats before their schedule gets a bit easier.
Betting pick: Nil
There's literally nothing I like the odds of in this game. Manchester City are so heavy favorites, yet I don't see a five or six nil win like some are predicting. I can justify putting a small bit of action on Bournemouth to cause an upset but there's nothing I'd suggest putting a wager on.
Player to watch: Kevin de Bruyne
Haaland took the headlines last weekend but I expect de Bruyne to have a big impact on this game and de Bruyne to get an assist (-110) was the closest I came to picking a bet for the game. If Manchester City does manage to win comfortably, he will likely have had a hand in a couple of the goals.
Leeds United (+219) at Southampton (+130) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 2 Leeds United
Southampton predictably got beaten at Tottenham and my concerns about their defense were justified. Despite taking an early lead, two goals from crosses were followed by a ridiculous own goal and it looks like it could be a long hard season for the Saints with relegation a distinct possibility.
Leeds got their campaign off to a winning start with a come-from-behind 2-1 at home to Wolves. The summer loss of Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha didn't look like it impacted them and the return to fitness of Patrick Bamford looks set to see Leeds pose an attacking threat most weeks.
Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+103) - 0.5 units
I'm still not convinced by Leeds at the back (although they look much better than they did before Jesse Marsch took over), while Southampton never looks like they're going to keep a clean sheet. I'm expecting goals in this game and can see the away team picking up the win if you want to play the bigger odds.
Player to watch: Patrick Bamford
As mentioned, the return of Bamford (who missed most of last season) could be the difference between Leeds having a comfortable season and being in a relegation dogfight. He set up the winning goal last weekend and his work rate alone is enough to cause Southampton problems.
Fulham (+221) at Wolves (+142) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 0 Fulham
Wolves will look to bounce back from their opening day defeat at Leeds and will need to improve their home form if they are to finish in the top-10 again this season. Their nine defeats at home was tied-third most and their lack of goals at home (20) was a big factor.
Fulham led twice against Liverpool, before settling with a 2-2 draw. A very good result but they will have some disappointment they didn't take all three points, especially as they also hit the woodwork and had more than enough chances to secure a memorable win.
Betting pick: Total corners - Under 9.5 (+104) 0.5 units
I see this game being a tight and cagey affair with Fulham looking to be difficult to break down and Wolves struggling to find a creative spark. The total goals market reflects that so I'm playing the corners bet here. Last season, Wolves averaged 4.4 corners a game and plus odds on under 10 corners appeals here.
Player to watch: Joao Palhinha
Aleksandar Mitrovic's brace took the plaudits for Fulham but midfield debutant Palhinha looked impressive and after looking like signing for Wolves earlier this summer, he'll have an extra point to prove here.
Manchester United (+104) at Brentford (+281) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 1 Manchester United
Brentford rode their luck a bit in coming back from a two-goal deficit to draw with Leicester. If they are to avoid a relegation battle this year, they will want to build on their home form from last season (24 points) after securing five clean sheets in their last seven home games of the season.
Manchester United's season couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. The club still appears in shambles, their transfer policy is a mess and they are continuing to start players who would struggle to get into most Championship sides. Other than that, everything is fine.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Brentford (+178) 0.5 units
I don't want to write off Manchester United, especially if Ronaldo starts. But they are primed to be taken advantage of in the early weeks of the season and Brentford will be optimistic they can take at least a point from the game.
Player to watch: Ivan Toney
Last season's top scorer (12) will be integral to Brentford avoiding a relegation battle and he got his account up and running last weekend. He scored in this fixture last season and is another one with a chance to play himself into England's World Cup squad.
Sunday, August 14th, 2022
West Ham United (-110) at Nottingham Forest (+327) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 West Ham United
Nottingham Forest's first Premier League game in over 20 years ended in defeat at Newcastle and goals look like they might be hard to come by. They should be spurred on by feverous home support and I expect they do find a goal here, but it may not be enough.
West Ham disappointed me last Sunday. While I didn't think they'd get something from their game against Manchester City, they never even pressured the reigning champions in the first half and outside of a short spell to begin the second half, looked lackluster. I don't expect a repeat here.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-122) 1 unit
West Ham will surely put on a better display than last Sunday and the home fans will make this a tricky game for visitors all season. They can be the difference makers if Nottingham Forest are able to stay up and while I struggle to see them winning this game, they should at least get their first goal of the season.
Player to watch: Jesse Lingard
Lingard had a successful loan spell at West Ham two seasons ago and will want to remind them of his goalscoring threat. They passed up the chance to sign him permanently this summer and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if he got Forest's first Premier League goal since 1999.
Tottenham Hotspur (+228) at Chelsea (+130) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 0 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea did enough to secure the points at Everton last weekend but hardly looked inspiring and my concerns about them missing out on a top-4 finish remain. Their home record against Tottenham is incredible, with just one defeat in their last 19 home games in all competitions.
Tottenham expectedly beat Southampton with relative ease although they still don't look too steady at the back. Their record at Chelsea is dreadful but they will likely not have a better chance to pick up three points at Stamford Bridge than they will have on Sunday.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Tottenham Hotspur (+133) 0.5 units
Chelsea lacks the firepower to give me confidence in them winning and Tottenham boss Antonio Conte will be desperate to get one other on his old team. Tottenham will probably look to stifle Chelsea, which shouldn't be too difficult and they have enough firepower to win the game.
Player to watch: Dejan Kulusevski
While Son Heung-min and Harry Kane get the headlines, Kulusevski has impressed since joining the club in January and scored last weekend. He scored five goals and had eight assists in 18 games last season and I fancy him to add to those numbers this weekend.
Monday, August 15th, 2022
Crystal Palace (+1654) at Liverpool (-482) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 1 Crystal Palace
Liverpool will look to pick up their first win of the season on Monday. After an impressive showing in the Community Shield, they lack a spark against Fulham on the opening weekend and needed inspiration from new signing Darwin Nunez before they looked a threat and ultimately rescued a point.
Palace were caught out by a hot starting Arsenal last week and despite looking better in the second half, missed the two chances that came their way. They won't be able to be so profligate in front of goal this season if they are to keep clear of relegation troubles.
Betting pick: To score anytime - Darwin Nunez (+120) 0.5 units
Nunez provided Liverpool with a much-needed spark last week and could have ended the game with a hat-trick. He's now scored in both of his Liverpool games from the bench and should get the start on Monday, with a chance of opening his account at Anfield.
Player to watch: Thiago Alcantara
While Nunez could be the deciding factor, Thiago's performances dictate much of how Liverpool plays. Last weekend, he didn't look at the races and that was a big factor into why they struggled in the first half. If Thiago can run the midfield, Liverpool should run out comfortable winners.
Parlay
Double chance: Tottenham Hotspur win or draw, Brentford win or draw & Leeds United win or draw (+378) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
