EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchweek 27: English Premier League

March 9, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 27 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 03/11/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts and looking at the best options for your lineups

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

This week begins a run of lopsided schedules over the coming weeks. We have ten games over this weekend before two bonus games on Wednesday. Next week has just seven fixtures as the FA Cup Sixth Round takes place before a bumper week follows with a total of 16 games. We'll look to navigate things this week with all of that in mind.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

Saturday, March 11th, 2023

Liverpool (-230) at Bournemouth (+550) 7:30 am ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 3 Liverpool

Bournemouth squandered a 2-0 lead at Arsenal to lose 3-2 after the league leaders won in the 97th minute. They've managed to score four goals in their last two games against the league's top-2 but also conceded seven. Speaking of seven, Liverpool thumped bitter rivals Manchester United 7-0 last weekend and made it five games unbeaten in which time they've not conceded a goal. The last time these two met earlier in the season, Liverpool won 9-0 so expect goals in this one.

While Bournemouth doesn't have much FPL appeal, Sam Billing's goal after nine seconds last weekend was his fifth of the season and he leads the team's midfield in expected goal involvements (xGI) with 3.56. For Liverpool, everyone is in play after last week and the attacking trio of Mo Salah, Darwin Núñez, and Cody Gakpo have now combined for 15 goal involvements in their last five games.

Trent Alexander-Arnold has been a disappointment this season but Bournemouth leads the league in set-piece goals conceded (15) and he can certainly expose that. Liverpool does not have a game next weekend so you need to be cautious if you do stack three of them in your lineups as you'll need a plan to mitigate it next weekend.

Brentford (+180) at Everton (+170) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Brentford

Everton was denied a first away win in ten games after being held by Nottingham Forest 2-2 last weekend. Both of Everton's wins since Sean Dyche took charge six games ago have come at home. Brentford gave their European Qualification hopes a boost on Monday, beating Fulham 3-2 to extend their unbeaten EPL run to 12 games (six wins and six draws). They've drawn too many games away from home this season with six draws coming in their 11 away games this season.

Everton has scored just four goals in six games under Sean Dyche but Demarai Gray is of interest for FPL. Last weekend, he started for the first time since gameweek 21 and scored from the penalty spot. That actually made it three goals and one assist in his last five EPL starts.

Brentford also has a midweek trip to Southampton so have immense appeal given their double gameweek. Their FPL options start with Ivan Toney, with two goals in his last three games and 18 goal involvements this season. Mathias Jensen is an interesting midfield option with three goals and three assists in his last 11 EPL games but given Brentford's two opponents this week, playing a defender along with 'keeper David Raya makes a lot of sense. I expect one clean sheet from them this week.

Brighton (+100) at Leeds United (+275) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 2 Brighton

Leeds played out their third consecutive 1-0 game last weekend and for the second time, they were on the losing end of it, this time at Chelsea. Of their 22 points this season, 16 have come at home although they've only won two of their last ten home EPL games, with four draws and four defeats. Brighton walloped West Ham 4-0 at home last weekend and they are unbeaten in their last five away league games. Brighton has scored 17 goals in their eight games since the World Cup.

Leeds' lack of goals doesn't leave them with much FPL appeal but their opponents Brighton has an abundance of viable options. Midfield trio Alexis Mac Allister, Kaoru Mitoma, and Solly March all rank in the top 10 for form at the position while Pervis Estupiñán and Joël Veltman both rank in the top-5 for form among all defenders. Then there's an under-the-radar player who will feature later in the article. The downside is that Brighton does not have a fixture next weekend.

Chelsea (+100) at Leicester City (+275) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leicester City 0 - 1 Chelsea

Leicester's attacking troubles continued last weekend as they failed to score for the third consecutive EPL game, after scoring eight goals in their previous two games. Their 0.95 xG last weekend was at least a marked improvement on the 0.01 xG they had against Arsenal the week before. Chelsea's midweek Champions League win comes on the back of their first EPL win in six games last weekend. They've only scored five goals in their last ten league games but also conceded just eight in that span.

While James Maddison is generally a popular FPL play, he's only rostered by 4.9% of teams. He's started two of Leicester's last three games and scored a total of just three points so is far from a lock to start for your team. There is one Leicester City player on over 25% of teams who seems like a good play, but I feel like is a trap and features at the end of this week's article.

I still do not want anything to do with Chelsea's forwards in FPL but that doesn't mean I'm not keeping an eye on them, as if they start gelling, they have plenty of individuals that can provide big returns in the coming weeks. For now, I'm focusing on their defense with Reece James and Ben Chilwell both providing attacking threats from wide areas and from set-pieces, plus they are solid candidates for a clean sheet.

Nottingham Forest (+650) at Tottenham (-235) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest

Tottenham continues to take two steps forward, then one step back with back-to-back league wins followed by a 1-0 defeat at Wolves last weekend and a Champions League exit at the hands of Milan on Wednesday. Nottingham Forest picked up a point at home to Everton last weekend but their away form has been atrocious with just six points, three goals scored and a goal difference of -26, all league worsts. Five of their 12 away games have seen them lose by a scoreline of 3-0 or worse.

Forest's away record makes them an easy fade, even though Brennan Johnson and Morgan Gibbs-White are both FPL options I like, I'd only consider them as starters when they are at home. For Tottenham, Harry Kane hasn't been as prolific recently as normal but still has three goals and two assists in his last eight EPL games. No individual really stands out otherwise, but they do have some more FPL appeal which will feature later on.

Manchester City (-285) at Crystal Palace (+750) 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 2 Manchester City

Palace is another side struggling for goals recently. They've failed to score more than one goal in any of their last nine EPL games, scoring just four goals in that run. They've only picked up five points in that period, all via draws but the seven goals conceded in their last eight games is still decent. City continues to put pressure on league leaders Arsenal having picked up 13 points from their last five games. Last week's 2-0 win against Newcastle was their first clean sheet in six games.

There are no Palace players I'm playing in FPL this week, although one does make my watchlist later on. For City, Erling Haaland remains the premium FPL option and even though he failed to score last week, he picked up an assist and now has five goal involvements in his last five games. While I expect City to keep a clean sheet, they have so many attacking options, it's difficult to accommodate one.

City has their Champions League second leg in midweek and goes into the game level in the tie so will possibly have half an eye on that fixture. City's starting midfield is hard to predict most weeks so it's tough to know who to start. I'd be comfortable with starting the in-form Phil Foden (two goals and an assist in his last two games), along with Kevin de Bruyne, although he's only started two of their last four games and hasn't registered a goal involvement in that span. Jack Grealish has started eight consecutive EPL games, but only has three goal involvements in that run. He is still worth consideration.

Sunday, March 12th, 2023

Arsenal (-175) at Fulham (+450) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Fulham 2 - 2 Arsenal

Despite losing at Brentford on Monday, Fulham remains in the hunt for European qualification. They haven't been able to beat any of the six teams above them in the table. In eight such games, they have one draw and seven defeats although six of the defeats were by one goal. Arsenal squeaked a win against Bournemouth last time out, needing a 97th-minute winner but that's now four consecutive wins following their 3-1 defeat against Manchester City.

Fulham's top scorer, Aleksandar Mitrović, hasn't scored since gameweek 19, missing three games through injury and failing to register a goal involvement in the five games he's started. The good news for Fulham is after scoring in three consecutive games as a sub, Manor Solomon finally started a league game and scored making it four goals in four games. He's someone I'd be fine rolling with while he's on form, especially against an Arsenal team that's conceded 11 goals in their last eight EPL games.

Arsenal's FPL value is all about their attacking midfield trio of Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard and Gabriel Martinelli who rank third, fourth, and fifth respectively in points scored. Eddie Nketiah has been struggling for goals and is carrying a knock so I'm fading him while Leandro Trossard left last week's game with a groin injury and is also a doubt to play. That could leave the door open to last week's hero Reiss Nelson to start but it's hard to take that gamble with lineups locking 24 hours before this game kicks off.

Southampton (+750) at Manchester United (-285) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Southampton

Manchester United will be desperate to put last week's drubbing at Liverpool behind them. They have to face Real Betis on Thursday in the Europa League but I don't foresee that fixture impacting this one and they should get back to winning ways in the league and extend their unbeaten home run to 12 games. Southampton's win against Leicester has given them hope of avoiding relegation and while they do have four wins from their 13 away games, they've only scored nine goals on the road and 10th-placed Chelsea is the only team outside the bottom six they've not lost to.

Marcus Rashford's five-game scoring run came to an end last week but he's still the second-highest points-scoring midfielder this season. Bruno Fernandes came under intense criticism for his display at Liverpool last week and will be keen to put on a performance that can silence his critics. Before last week, Luke Shaw had scored 24 points in four games and remains their best defensive FPL option, especially with a clean sheet very much in play. Southampton lacks any FPL option I'd be willing to start this week.

Aston Villa (+230) at West Ham United (+120) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Aston Villa

West Ham followed their 4-0 win against Nottingham Forest with a 4-0 defeat at Brighton. They have a Europa Conference tie against AEK Larnaca (of Cyprus) on Thursday but that shouldn't detract from this weekend's fixture and they are unbeaten in their last three home games. Villa's form has been very up-and-down with three losses sandwiched in between back-to-back wins. They conceded 11 goals in their three losses and come into this game on the back of two clean sheets.

Jarrod Bowen has been threatening to go on a run of form for some weeks but West Ham's away form hasn't helped. At home, Bowen has two goals and two assists in his last three appearances so he is someone I'd be keen to start at home. Outside of Bowen, Danny Ings has appeal in FPL. Following his January transfer from Villa, Ings had to wait until gameweek 25 to start a game for West Ham and he promptly scored twice. He started last week's 4-0 loss but blanked and like Bowen, is someone I'd be fine starting at home only.

Ollie Watkins' five-game scoring streak came to an end last weekend but he's still one of the most in-form strikers and well worthwhile rostering. They don't have many midfield options other than to save money to spend elsewhere with Emi Buendia being the best option at just 5.7M. He has had four goal involvements in his last nine games.

Wolves (+425) at Newcastle United (-155) 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 - 0 Wolves

Newcastle's 2-0 loss at Manchester City last weekend was their fifth consecutive game without a win and they have just one win from their last eight league games, scoring just three times in that period. Wolves' 1-0 win against Tottenham moved them five points away from the relegation zone but they are also finding goals hard to come by. They are tied with Everton as the league's lowest scorers (19) and found the net just twice in their last four games.

This has all the hallmarks of being a drab affair which probably means it ends up being a five-goal thriller. But we'll play the percentages and back Newcastle to keep their first clean sheet in five games. Kieran Trippier being a dual threat as their primary set-piece taker is the most appealing of FPL plays although Nick Pope is still a fine option in goal.

Newcastle is the likelier of the sides to score but I have no problems playing a Wolves defender or 'keeper José Sá. None of the Wolves defenders carries an attacking threat with Rayan Aït-Nouri being the only defender with an xGI over 2.0 this season, but he's not started any of Wolves' last four games. Rúben Neves is the only midfielder I'd consider in FPL but the lack of an attacking threat stymies him somewhat too so I'm not targeting him.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays (moneyline, total goals and both teams to score) and we'll be playing three parlays using every game once with a total of ten units played. The picks for each parlay are highlighted in bold for each game, but feel free to utilize the table as you wish.

Parlays

Moneyline (+780) 2 units

Over/Under 2.5 goals (+397) 6 units

Both teams to score (+1021) 2 units

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks

This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.

Stack the D

As we mentioned in the game preview, Nottingham Forest's away record is dreadful, and scoring just three goals on their travels makes any opponent hosting them a standout option to stack defenders. For context, the three teams Forest has scored against away from home are the current bottom three teams in the standings. They face a Tottenham side that's the only team to have kept a clean sheet at Nottingham Forest this season.

Tottenham's only attacking appeal is Harry Kane so that leaves you plenty of options to play a couple of their defenders this week. Ivan Perišić has gone eight games without an assist but is still fourth among all defenders in xGI with 5.50 so has an edge over some teammates. With the injury to Hugo Lloris, Fraser Forster has been playing in goal and kept two clean sheets prior to last week's defeat and at 3.9M, he makes a great discount play to pair with Kane and Perišić.

Unloved nuggets

Brighton made a surprise change in goal recently, dropping Robert Sánchez in favor of Justin Steele. The move was down to Steele's greater ability with the ball at his feet but he kept a clean sheet in his first EPL start last week and already has three clean sheets in six cup games this season. While Sánchez is currently rostered by 11.3% of teams, making him the seventh-highest rostered goalkeeper in the game, Steele is currently on just 0.7% of teams.

It appears as though many FPL managers haven't realized the switch was not just for one game and at just 3.9M, with a double gameweek against two teams that have failed to score in two of their last three EPL games, Steele has a great chance to keep a clean sheet or two. If you are a manager rostering Sánchez, you can get the jump on many of your league-mates if you make the move now.

Avoid the trap

We'll remain on the topic of goalkeepers and include the goalie most rostered in FPL (25.6%); Leicester City's Danny Ward. At just 4.0M, Ward was a popular pick as a discount backup keeper to start the season but he ranks tenth at the position for points scored (89). Still, that is a solid return given his price. But Ward hasn't kept a clean sheet since gameweek 16 and while many managers will see this week as an opportunity to start him, I see that streak continuing.

Chelsea hasn't been scoring enough goals given their investment in players this season but they've shown signs of being more fluid and looked dangerous against Dortmund in their midweek Champions League 2-0 win. Chelsea ranks 11th for shots on target this season so Ward might not be busy enough to pick up any extra points for saves made and is set to be a disappointment this weekend.

For the watchlist

Wilfried Zaha returned from injury last weekend and boy, does Palace need him. With four goals in their last nine games, it should come as no surprise that Zaha remains the club's top scorer with six goals but there's no way you're starting him against Manchester City this week. And following that game, Palace has trips to Arsenal and Brighton.

After those games, Palace has probably the easiest schedule to close out the season. Their final ten games of the campaign consist of facing eight teams currently in the bottom half of the table. The only exceptions are trips to Tottenham and Fulham, who happen to be the two teams that have conceded the most goals currently in the top half of the table. Zaha could be the guy that propels you up the standings to close out the season.

Lock of the week

I fully expect a reaction from Manchester United after last week and it will start with Marcus Rashford. He actually came close to scoring against Liverpool while the game was still 0-0 and Rashford has scored in each of his last seven home EPL games, totaling eight goals and two assists in that run. He doesn't have the best record against Southampton, with two goals and four assists in 11 meetings, but he's also never lost to them (five wins and six draws).

I don't foresee a shellacking like they received against Liverpool, but Manchester United should run out comfortable winners and Rashford is sure to be involved in a goal or two. With Southampton failing to score in two of their last three away games, Rashford also has the chance to pick up an extra point with a clean sheet making him a candidate for the midfield trifecta (goal, assist, and clean sheet).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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