EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 5: English Premier League

September 13, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 5 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 09/16/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're back after the international break. The transfer deadline has passed so we are set for a run of continuity at least. There is the added wrinkle of the European competitions starting this week. We'll have to see how things play out and which teams adapt and cope the best with regular midweek fixtures and additional travel.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Wolves (+550) vs. Liverpool (-245) - 7:30 am ET

Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 3 Liverpool

This is only Wolves' second home game of the season. They'll hope it goes better than the first when they lost 4-1 against Brighton. All four of their goals scored have come in the second half. Liverpool pulled off a remarkable comeback to beat Newcastle 2-1 with 10 men in their last away game. They have conceded one goal in three of their four games this season. If Wolves get off to a slow start again, it'll be too much to overcome against Liverpool.

FPL Pick: Mo Salah

Salah has had a goal or assist in all four games so far. He's also had five goal involvements in his last six appearances against Wolves (five starts). His short-term future has been settled at least. Hopefully, his focus can be entirely on the pitch.

Aston Villa (-110) vs. Crystal Palace (+285) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 0 Crystal Palace

There have been 17 goals in Villa's four games (second-most) and their 3-0 defeat at Liverpool was the first time both teams failed to score in one of their games. They now face a Palace side that had only scored two goals in their first three-and-a-half matches. A second-half blitz saw them beat Wolves 3-2 last time out but they have only one clean sheet.

FPL Pick: Moussa Diaby

Diaby quietly has three goal involvements this season (two goals and one assist). He's also struck the woodwork and leads the team in completed open-play passes that lead to a shot (11). He should remain the focal point of Villa's attacking play this weekend. There's a chance he could end up with the midfield trifecta (goal, assist, and clean sheet).

Fulham (-150) vs. Luton Town (+400) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Luton Town

Fulham will feel hard done by in their defeat at Manchester City. Further proof that more needs to be done to improve the standard of officials in the EPL. However, their 11.7 xGA (expected goals against) is a league-high and their 3.9 xG (expected goals) is the fourth-fewest. Luton is one of the three teams with fewer expected goals (3.3 xG) than Fulham. They too will feel aggrieved in their previous game and should've been awarded an injury-time penalty in their 2-1 defeat.

FPL Pick: Carlton Morris

Morris led the team in goals last season (20) and was a big reason why Luton got promoted. His eight shots this season lead the team and are twice as many as the next player on the list. He's been involved in both of Luton's goals this season and he will be a key figure in games like this if Luton are to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

Manchester United (+115) vs. Brighton (+205) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 3 - 2 Brighton

Two home wins and two away defeats so far for United. Their last two games have seen them score four and concede five. Off-field problems have beset the team lately and they'll want a positive reaction on the pitch this weekend. Brighton is the team to follow for goals. There have been 18 in total (averaging 4.5 goals per game) and at least four goals in all four games. The 67 goals in Brighton's away games last season was the second-most in the league.

FPL Pick: Marcus Rashford

While there has been a cluster of United's attacking players in the news for all the wrong reasons lately, Rashford has remained a constant. And the good news is he's played in his best position (wide left) in the last two games and scored in both. Of his 17 goals scored in the EPL last season, 13 came at home. I'd expect him to find the net again on Saturday.

Tottenham (-360) vs. Sheffield United (+850) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 0 Sheffield United

Tottenham continues to roll under Ange Postecoglou. Although only Brighton has scored more goals than Tottenham this season, their 7.3 xG ranks ninth. They should still have far too much for a Sheffield United side that ranks 19th in xG (2.9) and xGA (2.9). The 85 shots allowed by Sheffield United so far is a league-high while their 9.3 xGA is the second-most in the league.

FPL Pick: Son Heung-min

Son replaced Richarlison as Tottenham's central striker last time out. He scored a hat-trick in the process. It'll be difficult to bring Richarlison back into the side given his disappointing record since joining Tottenham (one goal in 31 EPL games). I'd be less keen on Son if he moves back out wide. The recent history of being the most transferred player for a gameweek isn't a good omen.

West Ham United (+550) vs. Manchester City (-215) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 2 Manchester City

Two of the remaining six unbeaten sides face off on Saturday with West Ham looking to maintain their impressive start to the season. Both teams have scored in all four of their games so far. The City juggernaut continues and they will look to extend the league's only 100% record. Known for scoring bags of goals, their 2.7 xGA is also the best in the league. West Ham is playing well enough to get something from this game but I fear they come up just short.

FPL Pick: Phil Foden

Erling Haaland's hat trick against Fulham will lead him to be heavily captained again this weekend. However, I suspect West Ham focuses much of their attention on him. That's not to say he won't still score but this is one game I'd be a bit more comfortable fading him. Foden has been in excellent form to start the season and may benefit from any extra space afforded while Haaland is closely marked.

Newcastle United (-180) vs. Brentford (+475) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Brentford

Newcastle's schedule should be getting easier now. With just three points from four games, they need to get their season going this week. Despite Brentford being unbeaten, their three draws mean Newcastle would leapfrog them in the table if they win by two goals. I do expect Brentford to make things tough. The fact they've only managed one win makes me favor the home team to get a much-needed three points.

FPL Pick: Harvey Barnes

Despite not starting a game yet for Newcastle, the summer signing has one goal and one assist. With the Champions League starting in midweek, I expect Newcastle to tweak their lineup over the next few games. That should see Barnes making the starting XI and possibly as soon as this weekend. Don't be surprised if he nails down a more regular starting spot in the process.

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Bournemouth (+330) vs. Chelsea (-135) - 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 2 Chelsea

Bournemouth has faced four of the league's six unbeaten teams so far. That obviously means they are winless and their quick press style of play under Andoni Iraola has yet to reap rewards. It's one step forward and two steps back for Chelsea again this season. They still look like they need more time to gel as a team and they've not been helped by the profligacy of striker Nicolas Jackson. I wouldn't be shocked if Bournemouth gets at least a draw but I'm giving Chelsea a slight edge.

FPL Pick: Ben Chilwell

The one thing Bournemouth has struggled with is defending set pieces. They led the league in goals conceded from set plays last season (21) and have already conceded two such goals this season. Chilwell is one of the primary set-piece takers for Chelsea and has also been playing in a much more advanced role this season. He has multiple routes to a goal involvement this week.

Everton (+475) vs. Arsenal (-195) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Everton 0 - 2 Arsenal

Arsenal keeps finding ways to win and put their fans through the wringer in the process. An injury-time winner last time out means last year's runners-up have kept pace with Manchester City in the early goings. Everton finally found them before the international break after three consecutive blanks to start the season. Their 0.5 xGD (expected goal difference) is markedly higher than their minus-six goal difference and highlights their inefficiency in front of the goal.

FPL Pick: Gabriel Martinelli

Martinelli is still seeking his first goal of the season. He has two assists and also scored a brace at home to Everton last season. His four goal-creating actions lead the team and only Kaoru Mitoma (six) has more in the league. Everton's 21-year-old right back, Nathan Patterson, will have his hands full trying to keep Martinelli at bay.

Monday, September 18, 2023

Nottingham Forest (+120) vs. Burnley (+220) - 2:45 pm ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Burnley

After nearly springing a surprise at Manchester United, Forest did cause a shock in beating Chelsea last time out. They won their only home game so far this season and now face a Burnley team that's conceded 11 goals in their three games. Despite having conceded the most goals in the league, Burnley's 6.7 xGA is only the ninth-highest. Their 2.4 xG is the lowest in the league, albeit with 18 teams having played a game more than them.

FPL Pick: Taiwo Awoniyi

Awoniyi has three goals in four games this season (three starts). Going back to last season, he now has nine goals in his last eight appearances in the league. Although Forest narrowly avoided relegation last season, the 30 points they picked up at home was the most of all teams in the bottom half of the table. Their more expansive style at home should benefit Awoniyi greatly.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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