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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 17 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 12/15/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Matchday 17 comes in the midst of a hectic schedule. Last weekend saw all teams play their third EPL games in eight days and those in European competitions ended their group campaigns in midweek. While we're hitting some 'over/under' and 'both teams to score' plays, match winners are proving more elusive. A reminder of how the Premier League continues to throw up weird and wonderful results every week.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Friday, December 15, 2023
Nottingham Forest (+340) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (-135) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur
Forest ended their four-game losing streak with a draw at Wolves. But they have still won just once in their last 12 games. After going unbeaten at home in their first five games, they've lost their last two. Tottenham ended a five-game winless streak by beating Newcastle. It was the 10th consecutive game in which they've taken the lead. They'll be happy to have won last weekend and not extend their newly set record.
1 - Tottenham are the first side in Premier League history to...
...fail to win five consecutive games despite going 1-0 up in each match.
...lose three consecutive home games despite going up 1-0 up in each match.
Spursy. pic.twitter.com/DW6mgUVXnW
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 7, 2023
FPL Pick: Son Heung-min
It's been feast or famine for Tottenham's captain lately. In his last eight games, he's blanked four times and scored double-digits four times. If you're trying to make up ground in your leagues, he's a good captain choice given he's averaged 12.75 points in those four games in which he's scored.
Saturday, December 16, 2023
Bournemouth (-200) vs. Luton Town (+500) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3 - 1 Luton Town
Bournemouth made it five games unbeaten when they trounced Manchester United. They've played three sides currently in the top seven during this run. They've scored at least two in each of the games. Luton suffered a second consecutive heartbreaking loss. Whilst they have been tough to beat at home (not losing by more than one goal all season), they've struggled on their travels. Their -13.9 xGD (expected goal difference) is the worst in the league.
FPL Pick: Dominic Solanke
Bournemouth's recent good run has seen Solanke net four goals in five games. He's facing a team that's conceded the third-most goals (32). That's followed by games against defenses currently ranked 13th and 14th for goals scored. Now would be a great time to bring the Bournemouth striker into your squads.
The two forwards with the most goals over the past five Gameweeks 👏
Have you owned either Solanke or Jimenez as a differential? 🤔#FPL pic.twitter.com/AYJmKdfhlw
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) December 12, 2023
Chelsea (-400) vs. Sheffield United (+900) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 0 Sheffield United
Chelsea continues to confuse us. Their injury list is lengthening and despite spending over $1 billion on new players in the last two seasons, their squad is stretched. They've only won twice at home but have scored nine goals in their last four home games. Sheffield United's second win of the season wasn't enough to lift them off the bottom of the table. They've picked up just one point away from home, scoring four and conceding 20.
FPL Pick: Nicholas Jackson
Cole Palmer is an obvious option every week, given his £5.5m price tag. But you may be looking for an Erling Haaland replacement or need to take a gamble on a new forward. After being one of the most popular early-season options, Jackson is now on only 6.2% of FPL rosters. Half of his six goals came against a Tottenham team playing with nine players but looking at Chelsea's upcoming schedule, now is the perfect time to take a punt on Jackson.
Manchester City (-575) vs. Crystal Palace (+1300) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 1 Crystal Palace
Manchester City managed to avoid a fifth straight EPL game without a win for the first time in over a decade. They were made to work for the three points and although they have struggled of late, they are still unbeaten at home. Palace were harshly denied at least a point against Liverpool. It's now five games without a win. Palace have scored in seven of their eight away games and found the net twice in four of their last five trips to The Etihad.
FPL Pick: Jack Grealish
With Haaland a doubt and Jeremy Doku nursing a knock, Grealish looks set to start an EPL game for only the fifth time this season. On his fourth start last weekend, Grealish scored and bagged the maximum three bonus points. It was his second goal in three games and being rostered by only 1.7% of FPL managers makes Grealish a perfect alternative option, especially if he can carry over his Champions League form into the EPL.
🎁 Most big chances created in the #UCL this season (5):
◉ Phil Foden
◉ Jack Grealish
◎ David Raum🥇 #ManCity's English duo top the creative charts pic.twitter.com/3KTF96LFzg
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) November 29, 2023
Newcastle United (-120) vs. Fulham (+310) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Fulham
Newcastle's last two games highlighted how stretched their squad is right now. They're set to be without 10 first-team players again this weekend. They've looked out on their feet for the last fortnight, which wasn't helped by their must-win Champions League game on Wednesday. Fulham have won three of their last four games. Something has clicked offensively for the Londoners as they've scored 16 of their 26 goals in those four games.
The Premier League's in-form goalscorers, @FulhamFC ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/GiPLhQg7AE
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 10, 2023
FPL Pick: Harry Wilson
Wilson has started only one of Fulham's last four games since they've gone goal-crazy. He's managed to score twice and pick up three assists. Five goal involvements in four games when averaging less than 37 minutes of playing time is nothing to be sniffed at. There's still no guarantee Wilson will start this weekend but he deserves a run in the team and could be a bargain at £5.3m.
Burnley (+250) vs. Everton (+115) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Everton
After taking four points from their first 13 games, Burnley's doubled that tally in their last three games. Despite scoring 10 and conceding 20 goals at home, Burnley's got a -3.7 xGD at Turf Moor. Everton come into this weekend on the back of their first three-game winning streak since March 2021. They'd be in the top half of the table if it wasn't for their 10-point deduction for breaching financial rules.
FPL Pick: Abdoulaye Doucouré
Doucouré has been consistently one of the best midfielders in the Premier League this calendar year. He's scored in back-to-back games, has eight goal involvements on the season, and his 75 FPL points rank eighth among all midfielders. He's been thriving in the advanced role he's played in under Sean Dyche and should continue to be a source of goals for Everton this season.
11 - Since Sean Dyche's first game as Everton manager in February, Abdoulaye Doucouré has more non-penalty goals in the Premier League than any other midfielder (11). Inspired. pic.twitter.com/UNSgXZa1sI
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 10, 2023
Sunday, December 17, 2023
Arsenal (-210) vs. Brighton (+550) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Brighton
For the second time this season, Arsenal suffered a contentious 1-0 defeat away from home. At home, they are still unbeaten, although they've kept just two clean sheets in those eight games. Brighton's 16 games this season have seen a total of 61 goals (averaging 3.8 per game). Both teams have scored in every one of Brighton's EPL games. Six of their seven away games have seen three or more total goals.
FPL Pick: Kai Havertz
A dubious handball denied Havertz from scoring a third goal in four EPL games and in consecutive games for the first time this season. He played almost the entire 90 minutes in midweek in Arsenal's much-changed team. That might be because he won't start this weekend given he's one booking away from a suspension and Arsenal faces Liverpool next. If you want to take advantage of an Arsenal player barely rostered (1.7%), Havertz is a perfect, but risky option.
GW17: Players Close to Suspension ❌⚠️
Follow @TheFuadBro for FPL Updates🔴 Arsenal
4- Havertz
3- G.Jesus🦁 Aston Villa
4- Cash, McGinn
3- Duran, Watkins, Zaniolo🍒 Bournemouth
4- Senesi
3- Billing, Neto, Zabarnyi🐝 Brentford
4- Ajer, Onyeka
3- Ghoddos🕊️ Brighton
3-… pic.twitter.com/uqmLObu045— TheFuadBro (@TheFuadBro) December 10, 2023
Brentford (+225) vs. Aston Villa (+115) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Brentford have now lost four of their last five games following last weekend's defeat. They have won three of their last four home games, with the only defeat coming against Arsenal. That was also the only home game in which they've failed to score. Villa maintained their 100% home record with back-to-back home wins against Manchester City and Arsenal. The latter being more fortunate. They've only won one of their last four away games.
FPL Pick: Leon Bailey
Villa will be without Douglas Luiz and Lucas Digne through suspension. But they shouldn't suffer in attack too much, especially with the red-hot Bailey on the wing. The Jamaican international has three goal involvements in his last three games after breaking back into the starting XI. Even when Villa only scores once, Bailey finds a way to be involved in it.
West Ham United (+120) vs. Wolves (+225) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 1 Wolves
West Ham's shock 5-0 thumping at Fulham was their first defeat in five games. They've scored in six of their seven home games but only have one clean sheet. Wolves made it six consecutive games unbeaten at home last weekend. But they have lost their last three away games, all by one goal. They've scored in seven of their eight away games but like West Ham only have the one clean sheet.
FPL Pick: Mohammed Kudus
Consecutive blanks for Kudus aren't ideal but no West Ham player offered anything last time out. Kudus had five goal involvements in his previous four games and two of his three goals this season have been scored at home. Jarrod Bowen's continued lone-striker role opens up the right wing for Kudus and in a game I expect West Ham to have a bounceback in, Kudus is primed for a solid return.
Top West Ham performers (since GW10):
1. Kudus (M): 36pts
2. Bowen (M): 28pts
3. Ward-Prowse (M): 28pts
4. Souček (M): 23pts
5. L.Paquetá (M): 18ptsLet's drill down...#WHU #fpl #ffs
[🧵2/7]
— fantasyfootballstats.org (@ffstatsdotorg) December 12, 2023
Liverpool (-270) vs. Manchester United (+600) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Manchester United
Liverpool rode their luck in beating Crystal Palace but it was a win that saw them move to the top of the table. They're a perfect seven wins from seven games at home. Liverpool's +1.62 xGD/90 (expected goal difference per game) at home is the best in the league. Manchester United comes into this game having been dumped out of the Champions League and off the back of a heavy home defeat. Their away record against the better teams under Erik ten Hag is dreadful.
FPL Pick: Mo Salah
There are so many boxes ticked for Salah as the best captain option this week that he will undoubtedly blank. But I wouldn't be averse to triple-captaining him. We've already covered Manchester United's wretched away record against better teams and Salah has eight goals and four assists in his last four games against United. Oh, and Salah has scored or assisted a goal in 16 consecutive home EPL games.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Notts Forest 1 - 3 Tottenham | Tottenham -135 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -195 |
| Bournemouth 3 - 1 Luton | Bournemouth -200 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -120 |
| Chelsea 2 - 0 Sheff United | Chelsea -400 | U2.5 +145 | No -150 |
| Man City 3 - 1 C Palace | Man City -575 | O2.5 -220 | Yes +125 |
| Newcastle 1 - 2 Fulham | Fulham +310 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -150 |
| Burnley 1 - 1 Everton | Draw +235 | U2.5 -115 | Yes -150 |
| Arsenal 3 - 1 Brighton | Arsenal -210 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -145 |
| Brentford 1 - 1 Aston Villa | Draw +265 | U2.5 +110 | Yes -185 |
| West Ham 2 - 1 Wolves | West Ham +120 | O2.5 -125 | Yes -160 |
| Liverpool 3 - 0 Man United | Liverpool -270 | O2.5 -295 | No +145 |
| Season totals | 84/160 | 86/160 | 92/160 |
| Season parlays | 2/16 (-8.27u) | 5/16 (+12.77u) | 7/16 (+20.99u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
