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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 16 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 12/9/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The schedule is throwing the games at us thick and fast. Matchday 15 ended just over 36 hours before Matchday 16 begins so as with the midweek fixtures, tread carefully with such a congested fixture list. Despite the rapid turnaround, we still have all of this weekend's games previewed with our picks, predictions, and FPL plays. The write-up is a little less than normal due to the lack of downtime but not at the expense of the research.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Saturday, December 9, 2023
Crystal Palace (+450) vs. Liverpool (-175) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Liverpool
Palace were booed off at home following their Wednesday loss. They've won just once at home this season and their six goals scored at home are the fewest in the league. Their 7.8 xG (expected goals) at home are the second-fewest in the league. Liverpool's win on Wednesday was only their third on the road (seven games) and first in five away games. It was also their first away clean sheet of the season of the season.
FPL Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold
Alexander-Arnold made it four goal involvements in his last three games following his assist from a corner. His set-piece delivery is another reason the England international provides so many routes to fantasy value. Alexander-Arnold's more advanced role and recent form suggest he's someone you want to fit into your team, especially if you don't have the Haaland/Salah combination.
Brighton (-190) vs. Burnley (+475) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 1 Burnley
Brighton's midweek win extended their home unbeaten record to six games. They have scored in all eight EPL games at The Amex but have yet to keep a clean sheet there. Burnley couldn't build on their 5-0 win at the weekend, losing at Wolves. They have now scored in four of their eight away games but also conceded two or more in five of them.
FPL Pick: Kaoru Mitoma
Following an injury, Mitoma made his first EPL start on Wednesday since Matchday 11. He didn't disappoint, getting the assist for Brighton's first goal and his through-ball helped to set up Brighton's winner. He's dropped down to 22.7% rostered, so if you held him this long, you're being rewarded. If you need a midfielder for this week, you could do a lot worse than bringing in Mitoma.
Manchester United (-160) vs. Bournemouth (+425) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 1 Bournemouth
Manchester United away to a side not in the bottom six of the league is an automatic loss. Every other game is anyone's guess. They've won five of their eight home games and haven't drawn home or away this season. They host a Bournemouth side in good form, with 10 points taken from their last four games. That includes a draw against Aston Villa and a win against Newcastle. This feels like a game that'll end with the points shared.
FPL Pick: Alejandro Garnacho
One of the few bright spots of Manchester United's season, Garnacho has started their last five EPL games. He only has one goal and one assist, but they've come in the last three matches. His 4.40 SCA/90 (shot-creating actions per 90 minutes) ranks second on the team. His finishing on Wednesday left a lot to be desired but it's encouraging that he's getting into potential goal-scoring positions.
Sheffield United (+380) vs. Brentford (-140) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 1 Brentford
Sheffield United didn't get that "new manager bounce" but certainly put up a better performance against Liverpool than they have done for many of their games. Brentford lost for the third time in their last four games, all defeats coming against sides above them in the league table. Of Brentford's six losses this season, all but one came against sides in the top half. Against the sides in the bottom half, they have three wins, three draws, and one loss.
FPL Pick: Neal Maupay
With Bryan Mbeumo set to miss the next few weeks with an ankle injury, Maupay is set to lead the line for Brentford until Ivan Toney's suspension ends in the new year. Maupay's started four of Brentford's last seven games and has two goals and two assists to show for it. He will be Brentford's biggest goal threat over the next month.
Wolves (+100) vs. Nottingham Forest (+300) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Wolves kept their first home clean sheet of the season and now scored in every game since Matchday 1. They're also unbeaten in their last five home games despite having faced four of the current top seven in the league during that spell. Forest's 5-0 defeat cranked up the pressure on manager Steve Cooper. Despite having the backing of the fans, a fifth consecutive defeat on Saturday might spell the end of his tenure.
FPL Pick: Hee-chan Hwang
Hwang scored his sixth goal at home on Tuesday and now has just one blank at Molineux this season. He's yet to tally more than one goal involvement in a game this season but being listed as a midfielder means he also has a chance of picking up a clean sheet point, too. That gives him a slight edge over teammate Matheus Cunha and makes Hwang a viable captain option this week, too.
Aston Villa (+265) vs. Arsenal (-105) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 2 Arsenal
Villa's superb win against Manchester City made it seven wins in seven games at home. It was only their second clean sheet at Villa Park this season but they lead the league in home goals scored (24). Although they conceded three at Luton Town, Arsenal still owns the best defensive record on the road (six goals conceded). Their 16 points away from home are also the most in the league. This could go either way but I suspect it'll be honors even.
FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins
Watkins' three-game scoring streak was ended but he remains the second-highest-scoring forward in FPL (97 points) and fourth overall. He scored in a losing effort in this game last season and also has nine assists to go with his eight goals so he can still influence things without finding the net. Only Erling Haaland (15) has more bonus points than Watkins (11) among forwards, leaving him as a real threat to put up a big points total.
Sunday, December 10, 2023
Everton (+215) vs. Chelsea (+125) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 0 - 2 Chelsea
Everton secured only their second home win of the season on Thursday. They've blanked four times in eight games at Goodison Park and Thursday was only the second time they've scored more than one at home. Chelsea continues to be an impossible side to predict with back-to-back losses away from home after winning their previous three. Regardless of the result, this feels like being a game of few chances and only a couple of goals.
FPL Pick: Cole Palmer
Palmer's finish on Wednesday was one of a master marksman. Six of his eight goal involvements have come on the road and despite not starting a game until Matchday 7, he's Chelsea's second-highest points scorer (58). His 4.25 SCA/90 are the most on the team and at £5.1m, he's proving to be an absolute bargain option for FPL managers.
Fulham (+150) vs. West Ham United (+180) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 West Ham United
Fulham's biggest win of the season means they've now scored more goals in their last three games (11) than they did in their first 12 games (10). The clean sheet was only their second at Craven Cottage. West Ham's win on Thursday extended their unbeaten streak to four games. All eight of their away games have seen both teams score and only two teams have picked up more points on their travels.
FPL Pick: Jarrod Bowen
Death, taxes, and Bowen scoring on the road. Bowen has been playing as a lone striker in recent games and although it doesn't suit his game, he continues to find ways to score. One of his six goals scored last season came against Fulham and there's no way you want to back against him finding the net away from home yet again.
Luton Town (+1400) vs. Manchester City (-700) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 - 3 Manchester City
Luton were crestfallen after a last-minute goal denied them a point against Arsenal. They've drawn at home with Liverpool and although Luton's only picked up five points at Kenilworth Road (seven games), no team has beaten them by more than one goal. City have won just one of their last five away games and are winless in their last four EPL games. They've not had a five-game winless stretch in the league since November 2009.
FPL Pick: Phil Foden
Luton away is proving to be a tough fixture and I don't foresee a shellacking like the odds suggest. But I do expect a reaction from Manchester City and Foden could be the instigator. His ability to carry the ball and dribble in tight spots could be crucial against a team that will pack the defense and at one of the smaller grounds. Foden is third on the team for points scored (69), so he hasn't been the bust some have perceived him to be.
Tottenham Hotspur (+135) vs. Newcastle United (+175) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 2 Newcastle United
After conceding two goals in their first four home games, Tottenham have now conceded two or more in each of their last three. Thursday saw Tottenham fail to win for a fifth consecutive EPL game. They took the lead in all five games. Newcastle's defeat at Everton was that of a tired team. Injuries have left them extremely short of options and two mistakes from Kieran Trippier emphasized how fatigued the players have looked during this hectic time.
Newcastle also have a massive Champions League tie on Wednesday and I wonder if they will have to rotate the team on Sunday out of necessity. They looked out on their feet on Thursday and it's no surprise they crumbled in the final 15 minutes. I'm apprehensive about this game but one thing that has been a regular feature for these two sides has been plenty of goals.
FPL Pick: Giovani Lo Celso
Lo Celso has been starting regularly in place of the injured James Maddison. He scored in his previous two contests before Thursday's blank and will be needed to create chances for a struggling Tottenham team. He did still test the opposing 'keeper on Thursday and as long as he's willing to shoot and is hitting the target, there'll be opportunities for him to return a decent amount of FPL points.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| C. Palace 1 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -175 | O2.5 -170 | Yes -145 |
| Brighton 3 – 1 Burnley | Brighton -190 | O2.5 -180 | Yes -145 |
| Man United 1 – 1 Bournemouth | Draw +340 | U2.5 +125 | Yes -145 |
| Sheff United 1 – 1 Brentford | Draw +300 | U2.5 +105 | Yes -140 |
| Wolves 2 – 0 Notts Forest | Wolves +100 | U2.5 -125 | No +100 |
| A. Villa 2 – 2 Arsenal | Draw +285 | O2.5 -150 | Yes -175 |
| Everton 0 – 2 Chelsea | Chelsea +125 | U2.5 +105 | No +135 |
| Fulham 1 – 1 West Ham | Draw +235 | U2.5 +100 | Yes -175 |
| Luton 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -700 | O2.5 -280 | Yes +105 |
| Tottenham 3 – 2 Newcastle | Tottenham +135 | O2.5 -220 | Yes -250 |
| Season totals | 81/150 | 80/150 | 87/150 |
| Season parlays | 2/15 (-7.27u) | 4/15 (+6.21u) | 7/15 (+21.99u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
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