EPL Betting Picks (7/4/20) - English Premier League Soccer Wagers

July 3, 2020

Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the EPL slate on 7/4/2020. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games.

Thursday's games saw us bag the Sheffield United v Tottenham pick and despite saying Manchester City would get more corners than Liverpool (denied by a 92nd minute Liverpool corner), they failed to get six for the pick anyway. I did say that Kevin de Bruyne was a good bet to score and I wouldn't be surprised if either side won 4-0 so hopefully, some of you managed to pick the bones out of the info at least and take home some money. Last weekend was FA Cup quarter-final weekend but we're back to a full EPL slate starting with five games on Saturday. Now in July, the new month has brought us slightly better fortune with 3 picks from 6. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:

• Picks total - 13 out of 27
• Picks yesterday - 1 out of 2
• Parlays - 2 out of 9

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.

Teams have now played two or three games each so we have a better understanding of what a 3-month hiatus has on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it'll be a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Brighton @ Norwich City - 7:30 am ET

Brighton 15th - 33 pts
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts

Brighton's bright start to the league resumption took a downturn on Tuesday with a resounding 3-0 defeat at home to Manchester United. They had won four points from the first two games to lift them away from the relegation zone but still need at least three more points to feel confident and this game presents the best opportunity for a win.

Norwich is all but relegated and has lost all three league games after the resumption by an aggregate score of 8-0. They need five wins in their last six games to stand any chance of surviving so it's only maths keeping them up right now. I think they'll go into this game with nothing to lose and give it a go, something they did for a spell at Arsenal and was unfortunate not to score on a couple of occasions.

I think they right that ship at least but I don't see how they can keep a clean sheet against any team and I think this game might offer up plenty of chances and at least one goal apiece.

Score prediction: Norwich 2 - 2 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +1450)

Betting Pick:

• Team Props - Both teams to score Yes @ -116 (Pinnacle)

Crystal Palace @ Leicester City - 10:00 am ET

Crystal Palace 12th - 42 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 55 pts

Two teams who have struggled since the league restart meet with Leicester in serious need of three points and righting their ship. Two points in three league games against bottom-half sides and elimination from the FA Cup has left them looking over their shoulder as teams congregate behind them for the top-4 and Champions League qualification (or potentially top-5 depending on Manchester City's appeal). Leicester has the third most league goals this season but only managed two goals in their four games and now faces the league's 7th best defense.

Crystal Palace somehow contrived to lose at home to Burnley but the game played out as expected, with Crystal Palace looking to keep things tight and get their star player Wilfried Zaha the ball in and around the opponent's penalty area to create chances. That's something they will look to do again here away from home.

I think this will be a cagey affair with Leicester now looking vulnerable after being almost certain of a top-4 finish before the league suspension. Crystal Palace's 4-0 loss at Liverpool two weeks ago was only the ninth time in 32 league games there have been more than two goals in their games this season. There have been 65 goals in Crystal Palace games this season but 39 of those have been in away games and I think Leicester gets back to winning wins in a close game. The line is almost entirely on Leicester winning a low scoring game. So we'll need to be brave with a single bet here. Based on Leicester scoring two against Crystal Palace earlier in the season and they actually have had 41 shots in their last three games, I'll back them to bag a couple here.

Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +775)

Betting Pick:

• Team Totals Match - Leicester over 1.5 goals @ +102 (Pinnacle)

Bournemouth @ Manchester United - 10:00 am ET

Bournemouth 19th - 27 pts
Manchester United 5th - 52 pts

West Ham's surprise win against Chelsea means Bournemouth now have the title of "team I'm most disappointed with" since the league restart. Losses against Wolves and Crystal Palace were followed by a 4-1 hammering at home to Newcastle, with their goal being an injury-time consolation. Newcastle had only managed 29 goals in 31 games before then and this was only the second time in the last three seasons they'd scored four in a league game (the previous time was beating an already relegated Fulham on the final game of last season).

They now go to a Manchester United side who are eight unbeaten in the league and have won their last two league games 3-0. They did struggle against Norwich in the FA Cup and needed extra time to get through that but had a much-changed lineup for the game. The midfield pairing of Fernandes and Pogba looks to be far too creative for Bournemouth to handle and although their last defeat might be a wake-up call for Bournemouth, they've shown nothing since the restart to give me the belief they can get a result here. This does have the feeling of being a trap game so I'll be a bit cautious but it'll be a complete hail mary to back anything other than a Manchester United win.

With the lines so heavily favoring Manchester United, we'll go for a couple of prop bets which look like good shouts. Manchester United has been awarded ten penalties in the league this season, six at home. Bournemouth has conceded three penalties away from home this season. Bruno Fernandes has taken over penalty and free-kick duties, has scored 3 in 3 since the league restarted and 5 in 8 since joining Manchester United. He's also had 28 shots in those 8 games so is a good shout to score again here.

Score prediction: Manchester United 3 - 0 Bournemouth (Pinnacle odds +600)

Betting Pick:

• Player Props - Bruno Fernandes to score @ +112 (Draftkings)
• Team Props - Manchester United to be awarded a penalty @ +300 (Draftkings)

Arsenal @ Wolves - 12:30 pm ET

Arsenal 8th - 46 pts
Wolves 6th - 52 pts

Arsenal has now won three straight in all competitions and has again begun to show signs of growth under new Head Coach Mikel Arteta. But this will be their fifth away game since the restart and against a team they've failed to beat in their last three league meetings.  They should have built up plenty of confidence from those three wins but their away record in the league still leaves a lot to be desired (17 points in 16 games).

It's easy to forget that Wolves are only in their second season as a Premier League team following their relegation eight years ago. They're knocking on the door for Champions League qualification but find Arsenal just six points behind them. Wolves are yet to concede in their three games during the resumption period but they've only faced teams in the bottom-5 so far. I still think they are a better side right now but their clean sheet run will likely come to an end. I wouldn't be surprised if Arsenal managed to get a win here as they have the capabilities to do so if everything clicks but I think Wolves' tactical game will see them take at least a point and they are correctly the favorites to win.

Wolves record at home against teams currently occupying the top half of the table does give me pause here though. Their other eight home games against top-half sides have seen them win just one, draw four and lose three. That could be in part to their ability to counter-attack with pace and decisiveness so well and at home having to play slightly differently. I'd be fine if you went for Arsenal draw no bet here to get some value, but this is a game which could go either way very easily.

Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Arsenal (Pinnacle & Draftkings odds +525)

Betting Pick:

• Team props - Both teams to score Yes @ -114 (Pinnacle)

Watford @ Chelsea - 3:00 pm ET

Watford 17th - 28 pts
Chelsea 4th - 54 pts

Watford has just one point in their last three games and finds themselves one place and one point above the relegation zone. Despite scoring twice in those three games, they're still the league's second-lowest scorers with just 29 goals in 32 games. Only 11 of those goals have come away from home (16 games) and they've only won two away league games all season, against the bottom two sides.

Chelsea's bid for a top-4 finish hit a bump on Wednesday with a shock 3-2 defeat at West Ham. Only Burnley has conceded more than Chelsea out of teams in the top-10 so it'll come as no surprise that they're yet to keep a clean sheet in the league since it's resumption. While they have been susceptible to chucking in a clunker of a game like at West Ham, they've generally been very good and with identical home and away records, are one of the least affected teams by the lack of fans.

Willian and Christian Pulisic have looked like top players these last couple of weeks and either could be the x-factor here. I'd fancy either (or both) to score here like Pulisic did when these two sides met earlier this season and with Willian on set-piece duties. With Chelsea's struggles at defending crosses evident again on Wednesday and Watford generally looking at getting out wide or winning set-pieces to put the ball in the box as often as possible, Chelsea will probably concede again. But they should be too much for Watford going forward.

Score prediction: Chelsea 3 - 1 Watford (Pinnacle odds +1250)

Betting Pick:

• Total Match - Over 2.5 goals @ -128 (Pinnacle)

Parlay

With five games on the slate, you can combine as many games as you like, mix them up or just go with 2-game combos. It's all about how comfortable you are with the games and how much you are willing and able to stake. With the Manchester United picks being higher odds prop bets, you can mix that in to maximize returns but it will increase the risk (and you will need to wait for the lineups to drop an hour before kick-off which eliminates game 1).

If you do combine all the picks, you could play it safer and sub in Manchester United to win at around -600. If you did this with the other four-game picks, you can get a 5-game parlay odds of +1140 with Draftkings.

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!

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