RADIO
We have four games over two days to finish up the season's penultimate Matchweek with the four teams involved in the FA Cup semi-finals at the weekend playing their catch up games. Sunday will see all twenty sides play at the same time to finish the season, as is tradition. If it wasn't for Leicester City being unable to score at Tottenham despite 70% possession and 18 shots, we'd have started the week with a three-game clean sweep. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 34 out of 66
- Picks last slate - 4 out of 9 (one void)
- Parlays - 4 out of 18
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
With just two league games left for each team, some sides are looking like they're already on the beach so it's worth keeping in mind team's league positions. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
Tuesday, July 21st, 2020
Manchester City @ Watford - 1:00 pm ET
Manchester City 2nd - 75 pts
Watford 17th - 34 pts
Manchester City was shut out by Arsenal in their FA Cup semi-final. Despite having 70% possession, they only managed to test the Arsenal goalkeeper once and couldn't find a route through Arsenal's defense. That has been the case in more away league games than they would like too; dominating the possession but failing to take enough of their chances to win. When it does go well, they can destroy sides as, since the league restart, they have won five games to nil while scoring three or more (three games 5-0, one 4-0 and one 3-0). This latest defeat is the third one in all competitions since the resumption and they will now be fully focused on preparations for their Champions League campaign to resume on August 07th.
Watford inexplicably sacked manager Nigel Pearson after an apparent exchange with the club's owner. Pearson's contract was up at the end of the season but given he took over in December with the team rock bottom of the league and seemingly guaranteed to be relegated, the fact they are out of the relegation zone with two games to go is a great achievement. If they get something out of this game, their survival could be confirmed depending on the Aston Villa game afterward. Now managerless, it's a complete crapshoot as to what will happen in their last two games.
I suspect Watford will look to play similarly to the way Arsenal did on Saturday and just look to shut them down. The problem is, they have nowhere near the firepower Arsenal boasts and have yet to keep a clean sheet since the restart (seven games). Their two wins and one draw since the resumption were all "come from behind" and if they go a goal behind Manchester City, I can't see how they get anything from the game, even against an expected much-changed Manchester City lineup. Sometimes a change in manager sparks a performance but this decision seems like a bit of a panicky mess.
Score prediction: Watford 0 - 3 Manchester City (Pinnacle odds +875)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Half-time/Full-time Manchester City/Manchester City @ -122 (Draftkings)
Arsenal @ Aston Villa - 3:15 pm ET
Arsenal 10th - 53 pts
Aston Villa 18th - 31 pts
As mentioned, Arsenal pulled off a significant upset in beating Manchester City at the weekend. Even more remarkable given they were +900 just to win the game. They've now beaten the top two teams in the country within five days and in a similar fashion. They shouldn't need to be "backs-to-the-wall" here but they put in a huge amount of effort into those two games so will likely need to make a few changes to keep things fresh. Regardless of who comes in for who, their starting lineup will still be stronger on paper than their opponents and with a chance to finish seventh and qualify for the Europa League in case they lose their FA Cup final, they won't be taking this game lightly.
For Aston Villa, the equation is simple; fail to match Watford's result and they'll be relegated. The good news for Villa fans is their final game of the season is against a West Ham United team playing for nothing while Watford is facing Arsenal. They've managed just one victory since the league resumption (a fortunate 2-0 win against Crystal Palace) but have four points in their last two games after picking up just two in the first seven games post restart.
The difficulty for us is this game's outcome could be dependant on the earlier result. If Watford loses, Aston Villa could settle for a point here if scores are tied later in the game. If Watford draws or wins, Aston Villa must get something from this game so will have to force the issue. We'll take a punt on Watford losing but Aston Villa will still need to press for a positive result and if they go behind, the game could still go in their favor if Arsenal tire. It's a difficult game to predict based on the unknowns but I'll back an in-form Arsenal to continue winning ways.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 2 Arsenal (Pinnacle odds +850)
Betting Pick:
- Money Match Line - Arsenal to win @ +119 (Pinnacle)
Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020
West Ham United @ Manchester United - 1:00 pm ET
West Ham United 15th - 37 pts
Manchester United 5th - 62 pts
West Ham's comprehensive win against Watford on Friday means they can no longer be relegated and can go into this game relaxed and without fear of relegation looming large. After starting the league resumption with back-to-back 2-0 defeats, both of which were dreadful performances, they have picked up ten points in their last five games while scoring twelve goals largely due to Michail Antonio's scoring seven times in that run. Now with nothing on the line, it's hard to see West Ham going too hard for the win here, although having more freedom should help their play.
For Manchester United, the FA Cup semi-final defeat to Chelsea on Sunday raised more question marks over goalkeeper David De Gea. Two mistakes gave them a deficit they couldn't recover from and now their focus is on securing Champions League football for next season with a top-4 finish or winning the Europa League, which resumes in early August. Leicester City's defeat on Sunday means their all-or-nothing showdown on Sunday gives this game less meaning. Manchester United will only need a draw against Leicester City on Sunday whether they win or draw this game but they need to ensure they avoid defeat here otherwise only a win will do against Leicester.
There is a strange scenario whereby a huge win here means they can still lose on Sunday and finish 4th but unless they score two or three early in this game, that shouldn't come into play. After four straight league wins by a three-goal margin, Manchester United has now won just one of their last three games in all competitions and will want to finish the season strongly, secure a top-4 spot before heading into their Europa League campaign. It's another tough game to call and any result wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 1 West Ham United (Pinnacle odds +800)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both Teams to Score/Total Goals Yes and over 2.5 @ +120 (Pinnacle)
Chelsea @ Liverpool - 3:15 pm ET
Chelsea 3rd - 63 pts
Liverpool 1st - 93 pts
A win for Chelsea will secure them a top-4 finish this season and they still have an FA Cup final to look forward to. They are also still in the Champions League but need to overturn a three-goal deficit against German Champions Bayern Munich, so that's almost done and dusted. The needed the help of poor goalkeeping to beat Manchester United and only managed a 1-0 win against bottom side Norwich City in their previous league game, which followed an insipid 3-0 defeat against Sheffield United. While they have been getting the job done, there's still room for improvement and depending on the Manchester United result earlier in the day, just a draw could be enough for Chelsea to secure a top-4 spot.
For Liverpool, losing at Arsenal last week means they can no longer reach 100 points and tie the Premier League record. Manager Jurgen Klopp hasn't been too impressed by his side's recent performances since winning the title but hasn't been too critical, which is understandable considering how good they have been prior to securing top spot. Their last home game against Burnley (1-1 draw) was the first time they failed to win at home in the league all season and they'll want to at least secure an unbeaten home record here.
Chelsea may make changes to their lineup to keep things fresh but will also see this as a chance to win and potentially leave them with a game on Sunday with nothing on the line. Finishing third does mean avoiding extra qualification games for the Champions League proper so Chelsea will seek to win here even if Manchester United lose earlier on. Historically, this is a game that produces goals in the league without being crazy. In their last 15 league meetings, both teams have scored on 12 occasions but only once has a side scored more than twice in the game (Liverpool in 2015). You need to go back 15 years to find the last time Chelsea scored more than twice in this league fixture so I anticipate goals, but not a game we'll be talking about for years.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +675)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Both Teams to Score Yes & Under 4.5 Total Goals @ +108 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All four games @ +1824
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
