RADIO
The English Premier League is back and we head into a new week on the back of a couple of disappointing days. There's just a single game on Monday and Tuesday before a larger slate Wednesday so we'll try to get a couple of nice wins to kick-off the week. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks - 10 out of 23
- Parlays - 2 out of 7
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played two or three games each so we have a better understanding of what a 3-month hiatus has on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it'll be a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Burnley @ Crystal Palace - 3:00 pm ET (Monday 6/29/20)
Burnley 11th - 42 pts
Crystal Palace 10th - 42 pts
Two teams level on points, two teams who have won one and lost one since the resumption and two teams who find goals hard to come by. Burnley got walloped 5-0 at Manchester City before grinding out a 1-0 win at home to Watford. Neither scoreline came as a surprise so at least Burnley has been somewhat predictable.
Crystal Palace has had two away games; a 2-0 win at Bournemouth was followed by a resounding 4-0 defeat at Liverpool, a game in which they lost star player Wilfried Zaha with a calf injury. For a team that has only managed to score 12 home goals in 15 home league games this season, losing Zaha for this game (which seems likely) is a big blow. Just 13 goals conceded in those games show us that they have no problems at the other end of the pitch. Just twice Crystal Palace has scored more than once at home (both times against bottom-4 sides) and failed to score five times).
Burnley has failed to score in six of their 15 away league games and has only found the net a total of 14 times. They are prone to the occasional shellacking having been beaten 5-0 and 3-0 twice away from home. Those four defeats were against top-8 teams and they've only conceded 11 goals in the other 11 games. Burnley looks like they will be without top scorer Chris Wood for this game too.
Given how games have played out since the league restarted and how few goals the two teams score, everything is pointing towards a tight game with few goals. I'm sure both teams will go crazy and it'll end up in a 7-goal thriller as a result of me saying that but all the numbers and everything we know about these teams lead us to a believing this will be a low scoring affair. The bookies clearly agree as the lines for total goals are incredibly stingy. Crystal Palace has won their last four games against Burnley and should continue that run (I'd also consider hedging with a 'draw no bet' pick too).
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Match Money Line - Crystal Palace to win @ +137 (Pinnacle)
Manchester United @ Brighton - 3:15 pm ET (Tuesday 6/30/20)
Manchester United 6th - 49 pts
Brighton 15th - 33pts
Manchester United has had one of the better resumption periods, with a 1-1 draw at Tottenham, a 3-0 win at home to Sheffield United before reaching the FA Cup semi-finals (albeit needing extra time to beat Norwich City). Manchester United hasn't been particularly good away from home all season with 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses so far so it might not come as a surprise that they have failed to win inside 90-minutes in either of their two away games this last fortnight.
Brighton has also gotten four points from their two league games since the resumption, also winning at home (2-1 versus Arsenal) and drawing away (0-0 at Leicester). They probably need a few more points in their remaining fixtures to ensure they avoid relegation and might be more likely to find the points in their away games as they also host Manchester City and Liverpool before the season's end.
Brighton scored a 96th-minute winner against Arsenal to avoid what would have been their sixth 1-1 draw at home this season, a scoreline Manchester United has seen in four away games. If it wasn't for a missed penalty at Leicester, Brighton would have scored on both of their games during this period and has scored in 11 of their 15 home games while Manchester United has only managed to keep two away clean sheets in the league. Manchester United are rightly favorites but this should be a tight game, like so many games have been after the break. Despite being burned by this bet a couple of times in recent days, I still think both teams manage to score here in a close game (something these two have managed in each of their last three meetings).
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Manchester United (Pinnacle odds - +625)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ -100 (Draftkings)
Parlay
Play it a bit safe by combining;
- Crystal Palace draw no bet with Brighton/Manchester United both teams to score @ +225.
You can still combine both picks for odds of +3.74 if you're feeling more confident.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
