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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the EPL slate on 6/22/2020 and 6/23/2020. He breaks down each team's stats and suggests the top picks for the games.
The English Premier League is back and we head into the second week of the restarted season with one game Monday and two on Tuesday. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my "lock" pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Locks - 7 out of 10
- Parlays - 2 out of 4
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll just be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how, with one pick per game being an odds on "lock". Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Burnley @ Manchester City - 3:00 pm ET (Monday 22nd June)
Burnley 11th - 39 pts
Manchester City 2nd - 60 pts
Manchester City started things off Wednesday night with a comfortable 3-0 victory at home to Arsenal. Despite the comfortable scoreline, they had to wait until Arsenal gifted them the opening goal which was followed up by another gift for the second before they cantered the rest of the way. Although they didn't look their sharpest, that's to be expected after a lengthy break and the 90 minutes of competitive football should hold them in good stead.
Manchester City average 2.57 goals per home games having only failed to score at least twice in two of their 14 home games (both games were their only two home defeats). While a Manchester City loss won't see Liverpool take their Premier League crown and while that will happen soon enough, they'll want to ensure Liverpool win it themselves and not have it handed to them so I expect them to try and put on a dominant display in what should be their last game as reigning champions.
Burnley is a little bit in No-Man's land. They could lose all their remaining games and still avoid relegation but have little chance of qualifying for European Competitions. Their away record isn't very good either, with 3 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats. They struggle away to the better teams as they have played 7 games away to teams currently above them and have 5 defeats in that span (1 win and 1 draw). In those 5 defeats, they scored just twice and conceded 15.
Manchester City seems to have Burnley's number when they meet having beat them 4-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this season. That was their sixth win in their last 7 encounters, in which they have outscored Burnley 23- 4 in those matches. Only twice have they failed to score 3 or more in those games. Monday will likely see a similar outcome.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 0 Burnley (Pinnacle odds - 7.000)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Home Team Total Goals - Over 2.5 (Draftkings odds 1.580)
Brighton @ Leicester City - 1:00 pm ET (Tuesday 23rd June)
Brighton 15th - 29 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 54 pts
Brighton picked up a big 3-points with a home win against an uninspiring Arsenal side on Saturday. The victory was more to do with their opponents' inadequacies than anything else as their goals came from lapses in concentration. The win would have released some pressure in having to get a result from this game but rather than looking to be brave an go toe-to-toe with Leicester, they'll continue playing the same way they have been in away games all season; trying to keep things tight and grabbing a goal on the break.
That hasn't led to much success so far, with just two wins and five draws in their 15 away games. They've drawn a blank in 5 of those games and scored more than one in just 3 of them. They've also kept just 3 clean sheets while conceding more than one on 8 occasions.
Leicester's home form is a big reason they will likely finish in the top-4 and qualify for Champions League football next season. Nine wins from their 15 home games have all seen them score at least twice. Their other six games have resulted in 3 draws and 3 losses, although three of those games were against the other teams in the top-4. Brighton is the only team in the bottom-7 Leicester who has yet to play at home and they've had success against those teams. Five wins, one draw and 19 goals for while conceding 3 suggests they have no problem in dominating weaker opponents.
Both teams' weekend fixtures followed a common trend we're seeing since the Premier League resumption and that's goalless first halves followed by second half action. That's something which has been more common for these to teams all season. Leicester have scored 37 of their 59 goals this season in the second half and Brighton have scored 22 of their 34 goals in the second half. In home games, Leicester has scored 21 second-half goals this season, a feat on Manchester City has been able to match so they are a team that comes on strongly later in games.
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 1 Brighton (Pinnacle odds - 15.500)
Betting Pick:
- Team Total Match - Leicester City over 1.5 goals (Pinnacle odds 1.854)
West Ham @ Tottenham - 3:15 pm ET (Tuesday 23rd June)
West Ham 17th - 27 pts
Tottenham 8th - 42 pts
West Ham looked like the relegation candidates they are on Saturday with an insipid performance which saw them fall to Wolves at home 2-0. They now travel to local rivals Tottenham who had to hold on for a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester United Friday night, despite leading for most of the game.
For West Ham, goals continue to look hard to come by with Saturday marking the fifth time in their last ten league games they have failed to score. That's been a theme of West Ham way games too as they've failed to score in 7 of 15 away games scoring a total of 12 goals. Head Coach David Moyes has made a career on setting his teams up so they're hard to beat but he certainly isn't renowned for free-flowing and attacking football. They will look to set out their stall, try to keep a clean sheet and possibly nick a goal.
That's also a tactic that has shaped Tottenham Head Coach Jose Mourinho's career. We saw further evidence of this on Friday night with Tottenham getting in front and then look to play out for a 1-0 victory. The problem for Tottenham and Mourinho is that they've struggled to keep clean sheets since his arrival. He's now been in charge for 18 Premier League games with Tottenham and they've only kept 3 clean sheets. Mourinho's first league game in charge of Tottenham was a 3-2 victory against West Ham.
That one-goal win is a common feature of games between these two teams. Despite commonly finishing at opposite ends of the table, in their last 10 league encounters West Ham has had some success. Tottenham has won 5, West Ham has won 4 with one draw. Only once out of those ten games has it been decided by more than one goal too. This should be combative affair and it will likely be a tight game once again decided by the odd goal. Even though Harry Kane was anonymous on Friday night, he could be the difference-maker and there's no doubt that Tottenham has more match-winners in their side which should give them the edge here.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 West Ham (Pinnacle odds 8.250)
Betting Picks:
- Game Props - Winning Margin - Tottenham to win by 1 (Pinnacle & Draftkings odds 3.700)
Parlay Picks
- Parlay Picks in Manchester City/Burnley & Leicester/Brighton games @ 2.930
You can also consider adding the Tottenham/West Ham pick for combined odds @ 10.840
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
