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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the EPL slate on 6/21/2020. He breaks down each team's stats and suggests the top picks for the games.
The English Premier League is back and Sunday's slate of three games offer up intriguing propositions as we have two matches featuring sides at opposite ends of the table as well as a local derby. I've introduced a unit based system to track and monitor things and returns. Each bet will be allocated a number of units between 1-10 to show my confidence in the (with 10 being the highest level of confidence). The units have no monetary value and it's entirely your call on whether or not to follow them. Here's how we have started off:
- 57 units placed
- 92.67 units returned
- 35.67 units profit
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll just be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how, with one pick per game being an odds on "lock". Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Sheffield United @ Newcastle United - 9:00 am ET
Sheffield United 6th - 44 pts
Newcastle United 14th - 35 pts
Sheffield United kicked things off with a somewhat eventful goalless draw on Wednesday night, en route to banking us a profitable day. The game went to form, with Sheffield United keeping it tight defensively and looking to nick a goal (which they did but technology let them down). It is somewhat unsurprising then that I don't foresee too much being different here. Eight of Sheffield United's away games have ended in a draw, eleven times they've scored fewer than two and eleven times they've conceded fewer than two.
Newcastle's home record is what has kept them out of the relegation zone, with five wins, six draws and only three defeats at home. It's certainly a ground where the home fans play their part, creating a raucous atmosphere which will be a big loss for them. Even with that backing, goals have been hard to come by, tying Norwch for the fewest in the league with 25. In their 14 home games, they've scored only 12 and five times have failed to score. They have kept five clean sheets and conceded only 12 so there's a nice symmetry to things.
Their first meeting saw a 2-0 victory for Sheffield United and all signs point to another uninspiring game with few chances and goals being hard to come by.
Betting Picks:
- Match Totals - Goals; Under 2.5 @ 1.574 (Pinnacle) 10 units LOCK
- Team props - Correct score - Newcastle 0, Sheffield United 1 @ 6.750 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Chelsea @ Aston Villa - 11:15 am ET
Chelsea 4th - 48 pts
Aston Villa 19th - 26 pts
Despite not managing back-to-back league wins in the league since November, Chelsea find themselves occupying the last spot for Champions League qualification and should be able to take another step towards that objective this weekend. Unlike the first game of the day, we should also expect some goals.
Chelsea away from home have failed to score only twice in 14 league games but have only kept one clean sheet. They average two goals a game on the road and have scored two or more in nine of those games. As aluded to, they have conceded their fair share too with 24 goals against and that solitary clean sheet coming before Christmas (in a 2-0 victory at Tottenham).
As you may have read earlier this week, Aston Villa struggle to keep clean sheets. If it wasn't for the goal-line technology failing to see their goalkeeper throwing the ball in his own net on Wednesday, they wouldn't have kept one then either. The 0-0 draw on Wednesday was only the second time they've failed to score at home though.
The midweek game might have helped Aston Villa regain a bit more match sharpness but Chelsea should still have more than enough attacking talent to score enough and win pretty comfortably. Whether Chelsea manages to secure a clean sheet is another prospect, but we should see some goals and a result that will plunge Aston Villa a little bit closer towards relegation.
Betting Picks:
- Team Props - Winner/Total Goals; Chelsea & over 2.5 @ 2.160 (Pinnacle) 8 units LOCK
- Team props - Correct score - Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 3 @ 11.000 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Liverpool @ Everton - 2:00 pm ET
Liverpool 1st - 82 pts
Everton 12th - 37 pts
Liverpool head into Sunday's game knowing they can't win the league title at their rivals' ground, but will be just one game away from being crowned champions with a win. Everton would love nothing more than to be the catalyst to an unlikely (near impossible) collapse from Liverpool.
Everton has been one of the teams to watch if you want goals, with 46 goals against being the fifth-worst in the league but the 37 goals scored is second-highest among teams in the bottom half of the table. Their home record has been good this season, seven wins, four draws and three defeats with five of their six clean sheets having come at home. With all that being said, I'm not predicting an upset.
Everton has vast differences in their first half and second half performances. They rank 5th overall in first-half performances (scored 23 goals, conceded 18) but they rank 18th in the second half (scored 14 goals, conceded 28). Liverpool's goals are distributed more evenly, 34 in the first half and 34 in the second half. A theme we've seen so far in the Premier League after it's resumption is goalless first halves, with the only two first-half goals in the first seven games coming from individual errors.
The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Liverpool win 5-2 and Everton hasn't registered a win against their local rivals in any competition since 2010. Liverpool is en route to setting records having won 27 of their 29 league games, scoring 66 and conceding a league-best 21. Local derbies can be more unpredictable than any other fixture and even with the strange times we find ourselves in, normality should be resumed here.
Betting Picks:
- 2nd Half - Team Winner; Liverpool @ 1.850 (Draftkings) 8 units LOCK
- Team props - Correct score; Everton 0, Liverpool 2 @ 8.500 (Pinnacle ) 1 unit
Parlay Picks
- Parlay all Locks @ 6.290 - 6 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
