EPL Betting Picks (6/19/2020) - English Premier League

June 18, 2020

Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the EPL slate on 6/19/2020. He breaks down each team's stats and suggests the top picks for the games.

The English Premier League is back and kicked things off with a two-game slate on Wednesday which saw us hit a couple of locks and one extra bet. I'm introducing a unit based system to track and monitor things and returns. Each bet will be allocated a number of units between 1-10 to show my confidence in the (with 10 being the highest level of confidence). The units have no monetary value and it's entirely your call on whether or not to follow them. On the basis yesterday's locks were ten units and the other picks were two units, here's how we started off:

• 28 units placed
• 41.73 units returned
• 13.73 units profit

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll just be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how, with one pick per game being an odds on "lock". Feel free to parlay any picks too.

Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Southampton @ Norwich City - 1:00 pm ET

Southampton 14th - 34 pts
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts

Southampton has been arguably the most erratic side all season. Early in the season, they picked up just one point in seven games, conceding 23 goals in that stretch which included a 9-0 shellacking at home to Leicester City. Since then, Southampton has improved and pulled themselves away from the relegation zone and realistically only need a couple more wins to stay up. In their nine remaining fixtures, they have four games against teams in the bottom six and it's these games they'll need to target to ensure Premier League survival

Norwich sits at the foot of the table and any chances of survival could hinge on getting something out of this game. They have three games left against teams sitting directly above the relegation zone and with a six-point gap to make up on the teams currently outside the drop-zone, this could be argued as a must-win game. And wins have been hard to come by all season with just five in 29 league games.

Norwich's biggest flaw is defensively and they have kept just two clean sheets at home all season and in both of those games, they had expected goals allowed of one or more. They have found goals easier to come by at home though and have only failed to score at home twice all season, with one of those games being against soon to be champions; Liverpool. Southampton has only failed to score twice all season in their away games, and like their opponents here, one of those games was against Liverpool.

Despite what we saw on Wednesday where an apparent lack of fitness after a 3-month hiatus saw the games played in slower than normal tempos, I don't believe either of these teams is good enough defensively to keep a clean sheet. Both teams will see this game as a big opportunity to pick up three vital points and while a draw for Southampton wouldn't be a bad result, anything but a win for Norwich could see the fat lady clearing her throat on their survival chances.

Both teams should be desperate enough to try and force the issue and neither team (Norwich especially) has been organized enough to try and soak up the pressure and defend solidly.

Picks:

• Team Props - Both to score/Total goals - Yes & over 2.5 @ 2.140 (Pinnacle) - 4 units
• Team Props - Southampton draw no bet @ 1.645 (Pinnacle) - 7 units LOCK

Manchester United @ Tottenham - 3:15 pm ET

Manchester United 5th - 45 pts
Tottenham 8th - 41 pts

The league suspension came at the right time for Tottenham and the wrong time for Machester United. Prior to the break, Tottenham had managed just two draws and four defeats in their last six games in all competitions. A run that saw them eliminated from both cup competitions and slip out of the European Competition qualification places in the league.

Manchester United are looking to continue their unbeaten run which spans their last 11 games in all competitions, with 8 wins and 3 draws. They were just starting to shows signs of improvement following a tumultuous few years in which they hired and fired the now Tottenham Head Coach, Jose Mourinho.

Tottenham will be welcoming back their captain and top scorer, Harry Kane, who was expected to miss the end of the season with injury before the league suspension. Goals haven't been hard to come by for Tottenham (no team outside the top-4 have scored more) but the return of their talisman should give them an extra edge.

Jose Mourinho will want nothing more than to get one over on his old team and no team had more yellow cards before the hiatus than Tottenham (65). Manchester United also pick up their fair share of bookings with 56 before the break (tied 7th). Mourinho will no doubt fire up his team and we could see some meatier than normal tackles.

Both teams are better suited to playing on the break with quick counter-attacks so I don't expect this to be a quick, fluid game but should see enough attacking intent and with the forwards on show, both teams should create enough chances for either side to win the game.

Picks:

• Team props - Both teams to score - Yes @ 1.704 (Pinnacle) - 7 units LOCK
• Team props - Correct score 1-1 @ 6.750 (Pinnacle) - 2 units
• Cards - Total cards Home Team - Over 2.5 @ 2.280 (DraftKings) - 4 units
• I would also parlay the two locks using 5 units @ odds of 2.80

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!

More EPL and DFS Analysis